TRAPPED IN TOKYO

I hate when the market gets fixated on one thing and pins its hopes to it. Remember when the market couldn’t go up without AAPL? Or how about the price of oil and copper? Whenever commodities went down, we died. Or how about the dollar and the euro?

Need I remind you about Italian/Spanish yields or Greek tragedies?

The panic button for the moment is the Japanese yen. We can’t do anything without first looking at the exchange rates of the yen. Try being a professional money manager, then telling your clients how stupid everyone else is for behaving in such a manner. After a while, it starts to sound like mental illness, psychotic behavior coming from an ego-maniac.

These days I just go along with the flow,  acknowledging the ‘great risks’ to the system without even a hint of cynicism.

As it so happens, I am flat for the day, thanks to AMBA, YELP and FRO. I know IMMR is cheap, so I am not concerned about today’s decline. The world is ending, after all, what do you expect to happen to your stocks?

I suggest reading iBankCoin over the weekend. The Option Addict, Chess, Rc, Myself and others will have a lot of things to say about the current state of things. Naturally, everything hinges on the economic experiment being conducted in Tokyo.

Make sure to watch the teevee on sunday night and monitor asian trade. If Japan brushes it off and trades up, we are going to punch scrotums into the open of trade on monday.

This one will be auctioned at Sotheby’s next Saturday.

Starting bid: $99,999,999.00

There is a wall of worry to climb and I know just the institution that intends to do it.

We aren’t going to sell off because that’s not what we do. There is a lot of anti-American rhetoric going on these days. You must admit, we’ve never been more powerful. The American dynasty is at its pinnacle of power, evidenced by our superfluous stock exchange.

I’m still talking my book. Today’s favorite positions are YELP, IMMR and AMBA. HOV looks good too.

First the gimp, now the crotch gun.

I hate to poke fun at short sellers. It’s like making fun of people in wheeled chairs for not being able to skip. The fact of the matter is, there was never a reason to sell, which is why I didn’t. Hopefully, my stocks participate in the rally to come. I am up 2% today, making up all of yesterday’s losses and MORE. I feel Asian markets will be explosive tonight and I really like the long WETF, MTU and NMR trade.

For now, AMBA isn’t working. They posted much better than expected results, just last week. Give it some time; people will get around to walking this player up.

I’m not searching for new ideas now, so I am all about talking my book. If you want new ideas, on a real time basis, join us inside the 12631 trading room and The PPT.

Here is my PPT post from this morning– a sublime harmony of mathematical precision (SHOMP).

I remember being short into days like this, witnessing Asian and European markets get clobbered, along with US futs, only to see our incredible markets buck the trend and kill my position. If you are an active participant in these markets, you should know by now, never bet against the Fed.

I am not claiming victory here, as I have only made back half of yesterday’s losses and the day is young. But the worst case scenario didn’t materialize today and I’m happy about that.

I am 100% invested, so I am not looking for new ideas. I’ve switched from research to management. Along these lines, I’ve developed exit strategies for some of my names and calculated holding periods for each of my positions.

My two favorite names are IMMR and AMBA. Both have momentum and should trade up with the tape. WETF is a half sized position. I am waiting for the Japanese markets to stabilize before making it a full position.

FRO is with me for a long time and will continue to be a long term holding.

HOV and USG are both cheap and great plays for US housing. And, lastly, YELP and MTU are both buys here, for different reasons, but buys nonetheless.

Within social networking, there are a handful of names worth holding for the long term. Here are my favs: ANGI, TRIP, YELP, Z and maybe OPEN. I do not like LNKD.

ANFI is my laggard, an illiquid play on rice. It is a small position, so I will exhibit some patience to see if they can get their act together.

Overall, I am very bullish on this market, due to the nature of today’s appetite for risk.

I think it’s pretty obvious to even an atheist like me: God is long stocks.

How else can we explain the reversal in futures from down 12, off Asian catastrophe, to +1? It’s nonsensical and devoid of the basic tenets of law and reason. Yes, here we are, fixing to make some money in equities this morning.

Attention everyone with brokerage accounts of the non-bullshit variety: be free and feel good. Sell short the yen and lever up to buy equities. Perform your own carry trade and do not fear the margin call lady. We have been ordained, by the creator himself, to bank coin in stocks for eternity and beyond.

I actually had a heckler on twitter challenge me on the carry trade relationship to stocks.

Japan is sinking, as if one of their state of the art nuclear reactors melted down. The yen carry trade unravel is in full suicide mode and bankers are eating their shirts tonight.

US futs are getting hammered, now down more than 8.

Track NIKKEI at top of iBC, along with futures and other fine things.

Here’s a live stream of CNBC. Shhh, don’t tell anyone.

Call me Perma-Long. I’ve walked this path before and it always ends the same: major melt up, punching the clocks off the faces of bears.

I will most likely sell everything tomorrow, being that I just made that declaration today. But, at this moment in time, I feel as if the sell off is shallow and the yen will soon start to tumble again.

God save us if gold becomes a safe haven. Like I said in a pervious post, I don’t know where the money is going. When stocks sell off, indadvertedly, dollars are purchased via money market accounts, which sends the dollar higher. But we’ve been getting hit with the dollar and bonds lower. It makes no sense.

Coffee was down 5% today. Over the past 2 years, coffee is down nearly 65%! God damn it, why wasn’t I looking at that, then buying GMCR, SBUX and SJM too?

Same goes with corn. When corn was up, chicken prices soared, hurting the shares of PPC, SAFM and BWLD. Now look at them.

The good news, from a macro point of view, input prices are markedly lower. Cocoa and sugar getting hit is good for HSY. The pressure is coming off of our corporations. Now if only oil can take a 40% hit, maybe FRO can live a little. 67% of FRO’s expenses are fuel. The shipping industry needs that Brent crude price to get hit hard.

I don’t feel like blogging after watching, for the second consecutive day, big gains whither away. Yesterday my 2% gain reduced to nothing, a flat day. And today, for the ultimate punch to the scrotum, a very early 2% gain has morphed into a 2% loss.

Unlike past market routs, there isn’t any place to hide. This is unique, in that regard.

Everything is lower, even the dollar.

Something has to give. I don’t know where all of the money is going; but I am unable to track it, so far.

Of course this happens after I jump back into the market, 100% invested.

Let the dreadful drawdowns begin.

FXY up, SPY down.

All eyes on the yen carry trade.

Click here for intra-day correlation chart.