I didn’t bother turning on CNBC at 6pm (NYC time aka the only time that counts) today, since I was busy planning an egregious west coast vacation. But, one of my little lemmings came over, who was greeted with an immediate smack to the face for interrupting my favorite time of the day (6:47pm). He told me Cramer said Intel Corporation [[INTC]] is a double from present levels. Here we go with silly ol’, crazy ass Cramer again and again! By golly, that man is crazier than a ham sandwich, in Pakistan (as you know, that is indeed crazy)!
That is so fucked up, on so many levels. Where do I begin?
Okay, using consensus estimates and present FPE, Intel is cheap. As a matter of fact, if this current semi cycle can last forever, well, Intel will double, AND MORE. Inside of The PPT, Intel Corporation [[INTC]] is the #11 ranked stock, out of more than 4,000. So, it certainly is undervalued. With a FPE of 13 and net cash per share of about $2, Intel’s stock price can easily run to $30. But, for Cramer to go on the fucking teevee and suggest the company will add, oh, just another 120+ billion dollars in market cap, is more than ridiculous; it’s criminal.
Not criminal in the sense that he should share a cell with Charles Manson; but criminal in the failure to behave like an adult on the teevee, which of course, as you know, is punishable by death via wooden stake to the heart in Iran, Romania and parts of South East Mongolia.
Seriously and sincerely, Cramer needs to take his fucking meds again and do a little research on the boom and bust nature of the semiconductor cycle. While it’s true, all recent reports point to a severe shortage in Flash and DRAM memory chips, as well as bustling capacity utilization at all of the major foundries; I’ve seen this shit happen before and it always ends badly.
When investing in semis, remember this story:
I once had a client who loved SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] . We bought SNDK for around $10ish, back in 2003, just prior to the big run up. When the stock hit $60, my client was feeling all rich and shit, full of purpose and circumstance. His position was quite large and the paper gain made him pompous to the point that he became my most hilarious client of all time. Needless to say, when the shit hit the fan, he was woefully unprepared. As always, he refused to heed my dire warnings. Into the teeth of the 2008 decline, he ended up selling his position $2 points higher from his cost basis. Then I had to go out there and perform voodoo magic on his account, via shorting stocks, to make him feel better about himself. I am sure the roller-coaster ride inflicted his manhood in the most heinous of ways, putting limpy on the “blue pill” indefinitely. I have to admit, I was delighted by the whole ordeal. It made for great afternoon drama back then.
I have lots of stories, like the one above. The moral is: The NY Mets are the worst team in baseball, save the nonsense dished out from the fucking Pirates every year. And, semiconductor cycles are as reliable as first marriages or high school sweethearts.
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