12-11-2013 Trading Journal

Market took a dump today and it was ugly.

I’m going to make a short journal today.  Suffice to say that my lack of conviction on $GALE costed me a bit  since I got out at the bottom of today low and the price bounced back up over $4 without me.  I did finally jump back in with a starter position above $4.  Oh well…

Meanwhile, the positions that I have plenty of conviction took quite a bath today.  Thanks to $LRAD, my largest position, for not tanking today; otherwise, my portfolio would be a lot worse than it already is.

Again, my plan to hold $NUGT for long-term got side-lined again when half of my position was stopped out for small profit.  I placed my stop below the daily 5 MA line (based on yesterday 5 MA) but the big dump today took back a chunk of my unrealized gain.  Yes, I could have sold earlier to lock in nice gain but again, I’m going for the big buck from long-term hold; therefore, I’ll have to bite the bullet to take these .hits.

Well, folks, welcome to the land of volatility when you start to lean on buy and hold which is basically what I’m doing now.

So far, despite a down day, I’m not worried.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, TINY, NUGT, GALE and 8% cash.

My 2 cents.

Market had a correction day after a two days run-up.

$NUGT gapped up higher at the open and I moved my GTC hard stop to breakeven.

Price is now right at the 15 MA line which could be a resistance or support depending on how price react tomorrow.  If price drops, I may move my stop to protect profit.  Perhaps, I’ll use the 5 MA line as my guiding post to move my GTC hard stop.

$GALE continued to correct as I had expected.

I bought the support at 15 MA line with the available cash for the bounce.  Let’s see if this support will hold tomorrow.  If not, I may take my small losses and wait for lower price to get back in.  If it bounces higher, I’ll add more if cash is released.

$XONE finally had a bounce today after three down days.

I like to see price bounces back above all four MA lines.

$CERS continued to head lower.

Next support I see is around the $5.70 area.  I’m still holding ’cause I believe once the tax selling is done, price will jump back up very quickly.

Both $KGJI and $KNDI corrected today but I’m still holding them for the long haul.  Thus, there isn’t much for me to do for the day.

Although $KNDI, and $CERS had a relatively larger correction today, gain in $NUGT helped offset unrealized losses; thus my portfolio suffered only a small drop.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, TINY, NUGT, GALE and 4%.

My 2 cents.

Market had another up day.

Well, $WG penetrated the Andrew Fork lower line and I got out with a small losses.

See how when price took out the lower Fork line, it also took out the low of the last three days.  With price already below all four MA lines, I’m not going to hang around when price did not bounced off Fork line.

When $GALE took out the lows of the last two days, I decided to take my small losses and stood by the side line.

I like to see price head down to the 15 MA line so I can buy back some cheap.  Notice both momentum indicators below are pointing down.

$NUGT opened higher and I decided to try another bottom-pick play once again.  GTC hard stop is placed at the low established last week. When price took out $27, I added some more.  By closing bell, I am up nicely.  I may move GTC hard stop to breakeven if price continues higher tomorrow.

I added to $TINY to accumulate more shares when price dropped to low $3.

Price bounced off the 79 SMA line.

$KNDI rallied hard today and the weekly chart looked fantastic.

Did you see how this week bar penetrated the downtrend line?  See also how the 5 MA line hooked up and away from the 15 MA line?  I see this as a coiled spring letting loose here.  Glad I added more last Friday.

$LRAD also holding nicely.

See how the weekly bars are maintaining above the support line after the breakout from the cup and handle pattern?

$CERS headed lower again.

Price seemed to bounce off the 89 XMA line today.  Let’s see if the bounce continues tomorrow.

$XONE dropped today but I’m leaving it along.  I can see price bounce hard after the tax selling; meanwhile, $KGJI was holding its ground well today despite a minor drop.

Thanks to $KNDI rally today, my portfolio was up nicely.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, TINY, NUGT and 6% cash.

My 2 cents.

Market opened with a bang and was able to stay up this time. A strong day overall.

Meanwhile, I added to $TINY and $CUR to round up my position size with the available cash released from the 3-days cash settlement.

But $CUR was short-lived since price began to collapse after I added.  When price penetrated the daily 5 MA line to the downside, I was stopped out not long after that.

One look at the chart above and I’m glad I sold. Since the losses were small, I didn’t even think twice about it.  I immediately looked to allocate half of the proceeds (the other half still locked in 3 days settlement) to $KNDI which was doing the opposite of $CUR.

At first I sold $AMRN to cut losses when price traded below $1.80.  Seeing that $KNDI was spiking up, I wanted to add to my already large position on $KNDI.  So, with $AMRN heading down and $KNDI heading up, the decision was easy.

.As you could see, price made a big spike up not long after the open.  By the time I sold $AMRN to get the cash, price already traded over $7.30 and was on the way back down to $7.18 area.  I didn’t care, I just bought at market ’cause the momentum was very strong.

And that was not over yet.  After my $PXD position was stopped out at breakeven (from my GTC hard stop), I added more $KNDI to round up my position size.  Literally, I almost doubled my position size on $KNDI today.  It is now the 2nd largest position in my portfolio after $LRAD.

Why am i so bullish on $KNDI?  The way I see this, today news item from $KNDI regarding Geely’s remark to electrify the London black cabs is of major significance.

Kandi partner Geely to develop electric cabs, China Daily says
Zhejiang Geely, the new Chinese owner of the iconic London taxi brand, announced during British PM David Cameron’s trade visit to China that the company plans to develop a fully-electric version of the car within five years, according to China Daily. Note that Geely and Kandi Technology announced this March a partnership to research, develop, and produce electric vehicles. Kandi shares are up 6% to $7.25 in morning trading.

Basically, the remark put $KNDI as a significant partner from Geely’s perspective.  Furthermore, it also reflects the commitment Geely has on the EV market.  It may as well be the beginning of the unstoppable trend of phasing into EV automobiles in the future.  Tesla practically kicked off this EV market with a big bang and is now unstoppable.

Moreover, within five years, the electric black cabs will be just one of the many EV product lines available; by then, the improved battery technology will have created stronger demand for  EV in China as well.  And guess who is in the forefront of this EV industry in China?  You guess it, the Geely-Kandi joint-venture.  What tickled me the most is that Geely is the owner of the London taxi brand.  If Geely-Kandi can pull this off, we are talking about major marketing exposure in a global scale.

Now you know my reason for getting aggressive in buying as much $KNDI I could get my hand on today giving available cash.  I need to remind myself that this is a long-term investment and not get too trigger-happy to lock in short-term profits.or losses .

After getting out of $CUR and $AMRN, I’m down to eight hi-beta positions with $LRAD and $KNDI represents 53% of the portfolio.

Thus, with a nice rally from $LRAD and $KNDI today, my portfolio pretty made up for lost ground yesterday despite losses today from $AMRN, $CUR and $XONE.

Before I forget, I also bought a small starter position on $WG simply because I expect price to bounce off the lower band of the Andrew Fork in the weekly chart.

However, if price penetrates this line, I will cut my losses.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, GALE, TINY, WG and 5% cash.

My 2 cents.

Again, the market was struggling to stay afloat waiting for tomorrow economic reports.

There was really nothing for me to do except to move my hard stop on $PXD to breakeven point to protect myself.  Fortunately, $PXD was able to trade in a tight range above my breakeven stop.

Price was still trading near the 89 and 15 MA lines.  The 5 MA line is pointing up and I like to see it cross-over the 15 line soon.

$CERS disappointed today by continuing to trade lower.

It is now heading toward the 79 & 89 MA support lines.  Let’s see if price will bounce from here.  The funny thing about having a conviction with a stock is that you literally give up taking short-term profit when you see them.  When price failed to maintain above the downtrend line, it was the perfect time to take profit.  Nevertheless, taking profit may also mean giving up your position for an indeterminable length of time.  Indeterminable because I could be side-tracked by my focus on other stocks, cash tied up by three-day settlements rule that can prevent me from jumping back in at an opportunistic time, lost interest due to being out of a position, etc.  All these factors can keep me out of the stock even when price shoots back up.  My recent lost opportunity on $SSYS trade was a perfect example.  After getting out to protect profit, I was not able to jump back in for the bounce due to cash not available at the time.  Since there are no bad news for recent correction on $CERS, I do not feel the need to get out for the sake of getting out.  I’m going to sit this one out for 2014.

$XONE is another one I’ll hold thru volatility as well.

Today drop wasn’t so bad considered that price bounced off the 89 XMA and is now sitting on the 5 MA line.

The rest of my positions were also going thru minor corrections so there is no need for me to go over each position today.  Let’s just say that I’m satisfied with the basket of high-beta stocks in my portfolio.  All I need is a few of them to blast off and I’ll be doing quite well.  Now, if all of them blast off, I will have to thank the stock gawd for the miracle.

Obviously, due to the big dump on $CERS and the across the board corrections, my portfolio took a hit today.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, GALE, PXD, AMRN, TINY, CUR and 4% cash.

My 2 cents.

Market was having a big tug-of-war b/w the buyers and sellers today; however, the daily chart looked like the correction might be over soon.

$TSLA started off the gate fighting to maintain altitude and I was debating whether to sell at the open or gave it some room to breath.  I took the middle ground by moving the hard stop to below the pivot point.  Needless to say, I was stopped out with 77% of my gain intact.

As you can see on the daily chart, price bounced off the 89 XMA resistance line.  It was because of this overhead resistance that I decided to move up the hard stop to protect profit.  These 79 & 89 MA lines are effective as a guiding posts for supports as well as resistances.  It pays to watch for these areas for either profit-taking against resistance or buying for bounce at the support.

With half of the cash available from the sales of $TSLA (the other half was locked in the three days settlement), I added to $CUR and $PXD.

$PXD, despite its weather situation, was acting very bouncy so I decided to join the party by adding more.

The daily chart looked strong giving that it almost closed above all three MA lines (5, 15, and 89).  I wouldn’t be surprised if price continued to take out the 79 MA this week.

Although $CUR was down at the time I added in the morning, I just got this feeling that price would bounce later.

I was correct.  The chart looked good for a breakout soon.

$XONE finally traded above all four MA lines today.

Now, I like to see the 5 MA crosses over the 15 MA.

$KGJI did great today by trading above the 5 and 15 MA lines today.

Don’t forget that both the 79 & 89 MA lines are trading up; thus, the overall underlying tone is still bullish for this stock.

$GALE put me underwater after opening but recovered nicely later in the day and put me back in the black solidly.

The rally looked strong on the chart.

$TINY continued to correct some more today.

However, I like the fact that price closed above the 79 MA line.  Can it bounce from here?  We’ll see.  I’m committed to holding for the 2014 rally.

Thanks to rally from $KGJI, $XONE, $PXD and a few others, my portfolio continued to gain ground.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, GALE, AMRN, PXD, TINY, CUR and 4% cash.

My 2 cents.

Market continued to go deeper from yesterday last minute dive.

It was a very NICE surprise to see $TSLA trading much higher before market open.  If I was to continue to be in $TSLA, price needed to open higher or I would have stopped out for breakeven or losses since my GTC hard stop was so close to yesterday close.  Thanks to the Stock Gawd I wasn’t stopped out yesterday.

As you could see on the 5 min. chart above, price gapped up and I added to my position after reading that Germans cleared Model S in fires.  And when the upper opening range was taken out, I added another layer.  Thanks goodness I added since price continued to trek much higher afterward.

Notice that on the daily chart above, price is now trading near the 89 XMA which could be a resistance.  If price could not penetrate that resistance, I may have to sell early to protect profit.  Nevertheless, to prevent a solid gain from turning into losses, I moved my GTC hard stop to breakeven.

$PXD continued to bounce higher after open so I bought a small starter position.

I was debating rather to use the limited fund to add more $PXD but decided against it since price was down due to bad weather condition.  We still need to know more about the weather situation before price can make up its mind on direction.

$AMRN filed an 8-K announcing a compensatory arrangement to its R&D chief and its General Counsel if they could be successful in executing the following program:

Under the program, each of these executive officers will be eligible to receive a one-time, special bonus payment in the amount of: (I) $250,000, in the event the Company’s sNDA for the ANCHOR indication is approved by the FDA on or before June 30, 2014; or (ii) $150,000, in the event the FDA approves the inclusion of the clinical data from the Company’s ANCHOR Phase III clinical trial in the Vascepa label for the current (MARINE) indication on or before June 30, 2014; or (III) $150,000, in the event the Company successfully secures a declaratory judgment from a court of competent jurisdiction on or before June 30, 2014 confirming the Company’s ability to inform physicians of the clinical data from the Company’s ANCHOR Phase III clinical trial notwithstanding an FDA failure to approve the Company’s sNDA for the ANCHOR indication by such date. All determinations concerning the above referenced criteria for payment will be made by the Company in its sole discretion.

As far as I’m concerned, this is a communication from $AMRN to the investors that their alternative plans discussed in the recent conference call is in motion.  This is good enough for me to add more $AMRN shares today.

I was glad I did since price was able to stay up most of the day without giving back gain.  I’m done trading this one so it is now a buy and hold thru-out 2014.

I also added to $TINY this morning but hindisghwise, I added too early since price made a correction today.

Notice price now stopped at the 89 XMA support.  I’m also no longer going to trade this one.  I will hold this one for 2014.

$CRTO was trading below the 15 MA line this morning so I sold to cut losses.  Seeing that $GALE finally had a correction along with the rest of the general market downturn, I took the opportunity to buy back some $GALE with money from the sales of $CRTO.

Looking at the $GALE chart, I’m impressed with the strength of the uptrend.  I believe today correction is not enough to stop this rally from continuing.  Hence, my willing to buy $GALE despite its already high price.

$XONE continued to bounce higher and I was glad that it had taken out the 89 XMA and is now working on taking out the 15 and 79 MA lines.

It looks like it is doable to take out the two MA lines tomorrow.

$CERS corrected quite a bit today.

If you look at the daily chart closely, you will notice that price bounced off the down-trend line after a day or two of penetration.  While I do not like the look of the chart, I’m still bullish on the fundamental story; thus I’m still holding my shares.

$LRAD, while slightly down today, is still holding its ground.

I like the fact that price bounced off the daily 5 MA line today.

Meanwhile, both $CUR and $KGJI were still struggling to keep from falling off the cliff.  I’m still holding.

Thanks to gain from $TSLA, $XONE, my portfolio was close to neutral for the day despite giving back gain from $CERS, $KNDI, and $LRAD.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, TSLA, XONE, GALE, AMRN, TINY, PXD, CUR and 0.3% cash.  Basically, I’m 99.7% invested.

My 2 cents.

Market tried hard to bounce back up but by mid-day it went out of air and collapsed back to the starting gate before diving into the water.

$NUGT opened down and lucky for me it didn’t gapped down way passed my hard stop; instead it opened near my hard stop and got me out at breakeven.  So much for my prediction of a potential bottom.

As you can see on the daily chart above, $NUGT penetrated the last historical low and proceeded to head even further down.  This one looks like it has further more downdraft to go based on today momentum.  Moving on.

$TINY looked like it was busting out of the last resistance from July and August of this year.

Thus I bought some position looking for a breakout play.  It didn’t hurt that management issued an update regarding its intention to drive its NAV up.  Perhaps, 2014 may be the year for $TINY.

$AMRN opened higher and I, again, for the umpteen times, got sucked into the bounce.

Well, at least, we have a higher high and a higher low today.  I must admit that I’ve a feeling that there may be a buy-out down the line that could allow me to recoup somewhat.  And to do that, I’ve to be in a position.  Thus, I bought a mid-level starter position so I can buy and forget.  I’m no longer thinking of recouping my total $AMRN losses or even try to make money off this one.  I just want to be in any big surprise rally that will allow me to recoup some of my losses.  The psychological pain of missing a surprise rally from this low level price can be more painful than the actual losses I’ve taken on this trade.  Now, you know why I’ve bought back in for some position.

$RBCN traded below all the MA lines early in the day so I decided to sell my shares when I could still get out at breakeven.

While price bounced back later in the day, $RBCN still has a lot of work to do to get back into an uptrend momentum.  After today, it now needs to climb over the 15 and 79 MA lines.

$KGJI opened higher but traded lower to close on low volume.

I’m expecting some kind of tax selling in December before price bounces back.  I intend to hold thru the possible tax selling instead of sell now and buy back later simply because the volume is low and it is hard to buy back shares without driving the price back up.

$KNDI continued to dance around the trading range of $6.7x and $7.2x.  And I’m continuing to hold.

There may be more tax selling or maybe not; it all depends on if there is any significant news b/w now and end of the year.

$XONE did good today by heading back above the 89 XMA.  So far so good.

Now it needs to go above the 15 and 89 MA lines.  The good news is that I’m back in the black on this trade.  Onward to $100 roll!

$CERS managed to get out of its downward bias today by climbing back up to close above the downtrend line.

Did you see how price bounced off the 5 MA line?

I’m getting very close to getting stop out of $TSLA today.  If price do not bounce up at tomorrow open, I may be stopped out.

Did you see how close price traded near the 5 MA line?  My GTC hard stop is right below that line.

$CRTO is falling back into a trading range.

If price trades below the 15 MA line, I may just cut my losses.

$CUR is still fighting for a potential breakout.

I like the fact that price bounced off the 5 MA line.  From the look of the chart, you can see that there is still some possibility of a breakout.

$LRAD was able to hold its ground against some selling today.

It actually closed a bit higher which was good enough for me.

Due to giving back gain on $NUGT, $KNDI, $KGJI, $TSLA, and $CRTO, my portfolio went down slightly.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, CRTO, TSLA, TINY, CUR, AMRN and 11% cash.

My 2 cents.

Market opened higher from an alcohol induced rally but fell down by closing bell due to passing out…

$CUR broke out of the cup & handle resistance line and I bought a mid-size position.

Price did not close above the resistance line as shown in the daily chart above; however, we still have a higher high and a higher low.  Let’s see if next week can continue the push up.  If not, I’ll cut this one for small losses.

$TSLA opened higher and I added another layer around $129.xx.

Price could not hold above $129.xx and fell down along with the market at the close.  I moved my GTC hard stop to breakeven during the day. I may move the hard stop to below the daily 5 MA line to give it more room to breath.

$INO continued to struggle to stay above $2.12 so I decided to sell the rest of my shares to take my small losses.

I was expecting a spike up this week above $2.20 and it didn’t happen.  Moving on.

$KGJI continued to struggle to get back to $1.80 but was down slightly for the day.

I’m still holding all my shares.  Notice that the daily 5 MA line is still pointing up.

$CERS had a nice rally during the day but gave back the intra-day gain to follow the drunken market when it passed-out.

Notice that price penetrated the downtrend line today albeit it still closed below it.  I like to see it go back above the line next week.

$XONE handles itself ok today.

It closed only slightly down.  It still has a higher high and a higher low today though.

$CRTO won the “come-back” reward when it jumped back to positive territory after being down all day.

I like the fact that price closed above the daily 5 MA line.

$RBCN made me proud (and I’m sure The Fly as well since this is his pick) ’cause it closed above the 5 and 15 MA lines today.

There is still the 79 SMA above that need to be crossed over before we can consider it a full-blown uptrend.

$NUGT’s bounce today might confirm a possible bottom here.

Will it continue to head up?  Will 2014 be the year of $NUGT?  Provided that I’m not stopped out b/w now and end of the year, I may have a shot of riding this one back to $100 roll…  Pardon me for getting ahead of myself.  Btw, I moved my GTC hard stop to breakeven.

Now, the drum roll….  $LRAD made the day today!

Above is the daily chart and below is the weekly chart.

By looking at the monthly chart below; I can see that we are breaking out of a two-years sleeping pattern.  I like to see the monthly 89 XMA taken out by year-end.

Perhaps by early next year, we will take out the next target of $3.36 which was the previous high at July 2011.

Since $LRAD is my largest position, needless to say my portfolio went up very nicely today.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, CRTO, RBCN, NUGT, TSLA, CUR and 6% cash.

My 2 cents.

The market was like a kid jumping on a Pogo stick today.  It bounced up, hit the ground, and then bounced once more before the market closed.

$INO opened higher and I naturally added.  But the bounced went out of air and began to meandering around.

Needless to day, I sold 50% of the position to reduce risk.  If there is no strength behind the bounce, it makes no sense to take on increased risk especially when playing for the momentum in bio-tech.

$CCJ and $URA was falling after opening so I sold $URA to take small losses even though by end of day, $URA came back positive with a green bar.

At the 5m chart shows, price tanked right at the open.  Since $URA was only a small starter position, I was only interested if price could keep going up after I bought; otherwise, I would have to keep an eye on it.  Thus I sold for small losses to take it off my watch list.

$RBCN, The Fly’s pick, had a nice long tail green bar yesterday despite being a down day.  This tell me that buyers were able to fight its way back to the top of the daily range.  When today price action took out yesterday high, it was a buy signal.  It so happened that when yesterday high was taken out, it also took out the upper opening range; thus, I bought a decent size position.

Price is now testing the resistances created by congruence of the 89 XMA, 5 & 15 MA lines.  Price needs to take out this resistance to move forward.

Seeing that $NUGT stopped going lower on the 3rd day from the last historical low, I decided to play “catch-the-bottom” on $NUGT.  This is how I decide when to play this game.  $NUGT had been going down with a lower low for the last eight day.  Allthough there were days without a lower low; the following day continued with a lower low.  But today, price did not gapped down after yesterday pause (of a lower low); instead it opened higher.  Giving the possibility that we might have a 3rd day without a lower low, I took the chance to buy with a hard stop below the historical low which was two days ago.

There is no guarantee that I’m catching the bottom here, it is just that today buy-in offer a low risk trade.  That is all.

I bought a starter position on $TSLA today solely based on the technical bounce off the 50% retracement from the historical high and low of this stock.

The weekly chart above shows price bounces off the 50% dashed-line.

The above daily chart shows how yesterday daily bar bounced off the 50% retracement line.  Since today price did not continue to head lower but instead opened higher, this confirmed the 50% retracement bounce had leg so I bought in for the ride.

$KNDI rallied nicely in mid-day so I added more.

Take a look at the nice rally on the 5m chart above.

$KGJI finally had a correction day.

Price found support at the daily 5 MA line.

$XONE continued to bounce.

This gives me comfort that I may not need to take too much heat going forward.  Notice that price closed above the daily 5 MA line.

$CERS was able to maintain its price level today without giving back the gain from yesterday.

Despite $KGJI down day and the neutrality of $LRAD, my portfolio gained today thanks to $KNDI, $XONE.and the smaller gains from the rest of the team.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, CERS, KGJI, XONE, CRTO, RBCN, NUGT, INO, TSLA and 7% cash.

My 2 cents.