I’ve got two boys playing fall baseball (one is on two teams). I’m assistant coach for two of the three teams. That means practices 3 times a week and games on Saturday AND Sunday.
So the lack of my slicing, dicing, and modeling of the market is due entirely to this crazy schedule. I’ll get used to it soon and things will get back to normal.
But more important than my schedule: frankly speaking, the market has a high likelihood of continuing the crazy up-and-down action. There is not much more to say about it. Were I not so busy with baseball, I’m sure I could show you in many creative ways why it is likely to continue downward, but until I have some time to pamper my muse with good whiskey and a ten dollar cigar, you’ll have to deal with standard chart-chomping squiggly lines and stuff.
Look at this chart below, specifically the circled part. What a hot mess.
Look at all the gaps and the number of days with large ranges. The market is being yanked around like a rag doll.
At this rate, anything could happen. Part of me is starting to feel we are due for a big, big day. I’m not sure yet whether it will be up or down, but I believe it is coming.
I’m still bearish here, and I know I predicted a test of support near $112.50 in my last post, but Monday and Tuesday’s action has been rather bullish, or at the very least, it hasn’t been bearish. While I still believe that we are one bad news day from new lows, there does seem to be good support in this area.
Another rally to the SPY $120 area should not surprise anyone. Hell, given the volatility, nothing should be surprising. Should we rally to $120 and then fall (again), we will be set up for a nice head-and-shoulders pattern. With a pretty clean neckline around $112.50, a break of the neckline should bring all the bearshitters out of the woodswork [sic].
Early tomorrow morning I’ll be posting some short picks. Until then…
what if there all shorts whould get squeeze very, very hard. If too many puts been sold, I think it would be profitable, especially before option ex. Crazy ping pong for more then a month now. Just a thought.
Definitely possible. Like I said, a large move up or down is what I’m feeling. Not sure which way.
Similarly, if we get close to the lows, we might start seeing longs puke it up.
For what it is worth, the way I’ve been playing this is to lighten exposure in my long term accounts near $120.00 and buy the dips in my short term. I am not shorting yet, but should we break the lows, I will be getting short with the plan to hold it for a while.
Hey Wood, our Historic Volatility differential models are suggesting a large directional move soon as well (just triggered today). Unfortunately, like your intuition, they don’t have anything to say about WHICH direction!
Jeff, you really should include the link to your site in your name. Its a great site and you guys do great work.
I’ve been expecting a big move for the last couple of days, but the bulls have come to the rescue each day. Something has got to give though. We have come close to testing support. Either we break support hard or we accept the support and have a big move upward.
WS – My favorite time of the year to coach and umpire is the fall. You have time to work with the kids in a laid-back setting. The weather is great too. Congrats on knowing what is important.
PG, Thanks! We went 1 and 1 and beat the outfit that has placed more players in collegiate ball than any other outfit in the Richmond area.
My 5 year old is turning out to be a stud. Switch hitting at 5. Seriously. It pays to have two older brother who play ball!
Thanks for your posts. Wood, what is you favorite cigar and whiskey? I’ll have a set waiting for you when you visit Vegas.
Knob Creek is a good’un, and a Davidoff. Would love to come to Vegas!
No matter what happens with mother market, you are a great father winning with the kids. Our teams here in Oregon insist on Sunday games too, much to my chagrin. Sadly, our culture has lost the importance of taking a day of rest. Ya gotta love those days when the kids games are at the same time at different ball parks. Keep up the good work Shed!
Thanks Eddie! Little league does not play on Sunday, but his travel team does.
Yeah, we got lucky (I guess?) to have the boys practicing on separate days. That way I can help coach both teams and neither boy gets left out. I was hoping they would practice same night, different fields, but I think getting to be at all practices is better.