There has been a lot of discussion at ibankcoin concerning China and FXI. From what I can tell by reading the comments section, many feel that FXI should be bought at these levels. However, others, The Fly included, have been selling it via the ultrashort etf, FXP.
The chart suggests that selling the [[FXI]] would be the correct move for trend followers. The ETF has rolled over and is making a series of lower highs and lower lows. While some support has developed near $160, watch carefully to see whether the support holds over the coming weeks.
I bought some [[FXP]] today as I am comfortable trading this roll-over/lower-highs, lower-lows pattern. I will consider selling my FXP as the FXI nears support.
A case can be made for some basing action. If support holds around $160.00, it is very possible that the FXI will continue grinding out its base while trading within a range, likely to be between $160.00 and $200.00. If one is adept at profiting from stocks trading within a range, FXI might make a good vehicle. If this action does turn out to be a base, we can all watch for a monster break-out in the future.
FXP and FXI will meet at $125.
Odd, no?
Also I see a head- shoulder pattern forming with $160 base.
brilliant analysis woodrow, I trust the Fly will expound on his insights from time to time as well – have yo’all been dining again with Mr. Bilderberg and Mr. Limm at that fancy Chinese place? your attendants and drivers were, of course, at a different table, I assume.
Wood: don’t think its more important to chart $HSI & $SSEC before deciding on the direction of FXI or FXP ?
I’m a holder of FXI at the moment, based on my own estimate of trend – no guarantee how long I’ll be holding it, but there it is.
I have to say, though, that seeing you buy the FXP makes me feel a little better about holding FXI …
Juice, I’ve had a look at HSI and SSEC and will make some remarks/charts when I get some time.
Bill- there are a few people who I respect enough to generally not trade against, and you are one of them. However, this is a short-term trade for me, and I feel fairly certain that the FXP will make me some jingle as FXI approaches 160. For your system, a drop to 160 is just noise. For me, it will mean 10 points or so of gain on the FXP.
I meant the comment as sarcasm, kinda like the “Woodshedder bottom” joke that got tossed around recently – FYI.
Unless you’re taking the opposite side of the trade, in the same equity allocation and with the *same*timeframe*in*mind* – which you’re not – then you’re not trading “against” me. Same deal with day-traders that may fade an upgap on a stock I’m holding, or with me taking a multiple-month position on something that Jimmy Rogers and his bow tie are short.
Another week or three, and I’ll re-evaluate FXI. Then I’ll wait another 4 weeks or so to look at it again. Rinse, repeat. You’re dead on, since I’m part-time trading and somnambulant compared to you and Fly, the moves imbetween are more “noise” than “signal” to me.
Hope you finish off the year strong!
Bill, don’t worry, I knew you were ribbing me about the Woodshedder Bottom.
Also, about trading against you, didn’t really mean it literally, but I did consider that you were long it when deciding whether to take the trade.
Thanks for the well-wishes for ending strong!
I am watching this trade with much interest from the sidelines. I think that You and Fly are on the correct side of it short-term.
Trades like this don’t serve my goals as a “somnambulist trader.”