nOPEC

785 views

Oil just got beat again when it became public that OPEC is a dysfunctional organization. Who could have imagined that disparate oil producing nations with deep, cultural differences (read racism) might have trouble working through competition?

I never would have guessed it would crop up this quickly. But the demise of OPEC is hardly unforeseen. I myself penned an article this July discussing the possibility of the oil markets being upended.

But it is funny, reading through those thoughts going on just five months old, and seeing how violently they have diverged from what I expected.

I expected the development of US oil and gas reserves would create trouble for the old guards. I did not expect that oil would collapse 30% in two months. While you could say that those price swings were to be expected – just simple economics – I had expected the US might actually do more legislatively to erect a wall between us and the oil nations altogether. Obviously this happened much too quickly for any of that.

I had also guessed that when things started to get tough, OPEC would at least try to band together first. They’ve been successful at this in the past, so failing to construct even symbolic production cuts this round is certainly worse off along than I would have ventured.

The fallout in oil and energy names, following August, is not something I truthfully believed in. This may sound strange, but I was actually betting against myself when I made those sales of my oil and gas positions. And I never would have believed we’d fall so far. BAS is off 60% peak to trough, for crying out loud. Even when I knew we were experiencing a correction, I didn’t think it would be this extreme.

Now let’s put some context into all of this. Some of these energy names are trading at prices as bad as or worse than they were in 2010-2011 (when oil prices were pretty much where they are now); and lots of these energy companies were losing money back then, whereas they are making money today. I’m talking about BAS explicitly as an example.

So what happens now?

Well, I think that the prices of oil & gas plays are pretty compelling here. Yes oil is a bummer and there is big talk about $30 oil being right around the corner. And it’s no coincidence that I think this talk is stupid and that those responsible should be viciously ridiculed. I think the price drop is temporary, unremarkable and indistinct from any other major selloff that has gripped the price of oil in the past five years.

I think competition will continue to do real damage to the major oil nations in the world bringing about the greatest power shift of our lifetimes. But as apart from my peers, who seem to believe that a Venezuela or Russia has the ability to ramp up production into this price drop, leading to a deflationary spiral that ushers in 1990’s prices for all Western nations, I tend to feel this is silly.

You can’t call for the death of the Bakkens and simultaneously think that oil stays this low. Actually I have a hypothesis that the events that would have to converge to keep oil this low are few and far between. The big question here is timing as to when oil goes higher.

So my guess – and this is definitely just that – is that the US shale boom lives. And here’s what will enable that to happen.

These oil exporting countries have all made brazen moves with their budgets. Places like Russia, Saudi Arabia, or Iran are barely holding it together. Places like Venezuela can’t even muster that; oil prices for Venezuela are kind of like mattresses or trampolines to a guy already falling off a roof – a point of hope.

But if oil prices keep falling, you’re going to see one of these places – and Venezuela is definitely near the top of my list – buckle. Venezuela is probably the easiest case to get back to $100 oil, because one Venezuela is good enough to offset new US production. But it could just as easily be a combination of other smaller oil exporters. A half dozen of the smaller to mid size guys, or even a combination of Syria and Iraq plunging back into darkness. IS is obviously a possible trigger here; a bunch of pissed off twenty year olds, armed with rocket propelled grenades, trying to operate oil machinery? Sounds like a nice, safe combo.

What we’ve seen, repeatedly, is that when a place like, oh, Syria or Libya plunges into anarchy, it’s not just a small setback. Rather, the entire oil infrastructure gets taken offline for years at a time.

Another civil war or resurgent fighting could easily get us back to lower oil production in these places. Some US legislative work (now freed from the concerns about access to supply thanks to the US domestic advances) could help keep our own oil expertise from setting those places back up again after they tumble.

Why would we want to do this? Rome is sick of Carthage.

Just think about the sheer number of problems that these countries have dealt us over the past fifty years. We already know that the US can withstand $100 oil. We’ve been doing it for a few years now. And $100 oil benefits the US economy directly, whereas $80 oil is the worst of all worlds; too cheap or expensive to care about.

With the GOP in Congress and looking to juice the US a little, and with Obama increasingly looking for a major win, sticking a stake in the middle east is probably the lowest hanging fruit around. Kill IS by letting them destroy their own oil infrastructure, then restrict the companies that have usually bailed that region back out (Shell, Exxon, etcetera) from doing that. Lower Russia back into 1993 conditions, then tell Blankfein to keep out this time.

That’s how I see things playing out. Sure we could watch the US shale revolution just go to waste completely. But I think at this junction the US has a pretty vested interest in not letting that happen. It’s a new dawn, after all.

The Entirety Of The Saudi Arabia Rumor Is Complete Hogwash

228 views

There is a tale floating around that Saudi Arabia is somehow single handedly collapsing the price of oil to destroy Western reserve development. And it is total nonsense.

Reports last month show Saudi Arabia is actually cutting production to maintain pricing.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries finally appears to be responding to the lower demand outlook.

According to the IEA, Saudi Arabia cut its oil output by 330,000 barrels a day last month, apparently in response to lower demand from its customers and a shift in the oil producer’s focus toward Asian markets. The Kingdom’s oil exports are likely to have run below 7 million barrels a day for the last four months, their lowest level since September 2011, as domestic consumption ratcheted up over the summer and supply to the U.S. fell, the IEA said.

I would have called bull on this sooner, but I was a little out of the loop and figured the oil selloff was just a correction anyway.

As for demand concerns, IEA reports have demand for oil growing every year for the foreseeable future. They cut the steepness of this growth and now there’s a jockeying move in markets to price out certain projects. But correcting the plunge in oil is going to be as easy as some field development getting publicly mothballed.

There is absolutely no credibility to this tall tale. Saudi Arabia is not going to be able to single handedly destroy the Bakken’s. They probably wouldn’t want to anyway. The US fields need expensive oil to justify development. Expensive oil plays directly into Saudi Arabia’s hand, since they have very low cost extraction.

If Saudi Arabia insists on meeting the demand that the US fields otherwise would have provided, they’re going to do so at a price per barrel closer to $60. Up until recently, they were getting $100 just by leaving some room on the field. That means Saudi Arabia was getting the same revenue for almost half the production levels, geniuses.

What do you think that does for Saudi Arabia’s oil field life expectancy?

The Saudi’s need the fracking oil because it justifies high prices. High prices buy Saudi Arabia vastly more time. Saudi Arabia would be stupid to try and beat down newer methods of extraction because they would exhaust themselves quicker and ultimately those sources would just come back on line anyway down the line.

Hmmm…step aside for newer extraction methods, get the same revenue for half the effort (weighs the one hand)…try and physically drive these methods out of business, exert double the effort with nothing extra to show for it (weighs the other).

Quit trying to be so cute with these conspiracy theories. Jimmy can go fuck himself.

This Changes Nothing

266 views

What a dumb reason to sell off. Israel began a ground invasion and Russia probably smoked an airliner full of children. So what, I ask you, outside of the obvious moral quandaries posed there?

How does this effect US business?

If I thought for a minute the US was about to go to war, this might change something. But we’re not. Look at our chief executive – the man ate barbecue and “had a conversation” with Putin. Is that the posturing of a man itching to enter a war (or possessing a spine)?

I say to you, “no”.

These global events are fascinating to watch, and I’ve been having quite the time on Twitter watching Vox make complete asses of themselves.

But I seriously question any lasting impact either of this has on the US stock market.

A Global Power Shift Is Emerging

348 views

Short term cautions not withstanding, we are on the precipice of something great.

The entire structure of the global economy is shifting, slightly and slowly. But like all great change, the most striking of the movement comes all at once, at the end.

The United States is driving this assault of the balances of power, globally, as the energy revolution progresses on our shores. This country is set to become the biggest oil producer in the world – and we are now slowly removing the export restrictions that are the last remaining barrier to this end.

This isn’t just about US trade balances and deficits. Those numbers games matter, but they always matter less than you think.

This game is about power. Oil has been the source of power to our enemies for too long. Russia and the Middle East have fed well on global consumption of this product, erecting their cartels around the flow oil to global industry. It has made them powerful and a threat.

The move by the US to become the world’s largest producer of oil and gas can be viewed through a different lens than financial gain alone: this is also going to completely upend our adversaries. What wars and weapons and diplomacy and cooperation could not possibly have accomplished, given the entrenched interests we faced, this one mighty push on our part will quickly bring about.

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. You must get invested in it, and stay invested in it. All US leadership sees the goal, and no one objects to it. The days of getting beat about by monarchies in Saudi Arabia, needing to cut backroom deals that undermine our own morals with foreign militant groups, having to sit through endless meetings while Russian oligarchs threaten our allies with gas supply shortages…these days are coming to an end.

As the US increasingly becomes energy independent, the argument to even have relations with half these villains becomes non sequitur. We can marginalize them while circling around our true allies and real friends.

I can’t see everything that is going to come from this. Naturally US power will follow. And the North and South American continents should improve, swinging towards democracy and capitalism. Outside of that, while I think US energy independence is a good thing, I wouldn’t be surprised if war also follows. Revolutions surely, but also open war between foreign, former energy exporters who find themselves being boxed into a corner. The Saudi’s days are surely numbered, in particular.

My bet is that Russia will not change much, but they will also have to cut less lucrative deals with China to make it. So at least they will be a less powerful, less interfering Russia. Good riddance there.

Suffice to say, this is unpredictability at its best. While I think I see the theme, I do not yet hear the notes. But I’ll take my chances with it anyway. The old order of things was repulsive. I won’t be crying any tears for OPEC, or for Russia.

Well That Ended Anticlimactically

129 views

Here I was thinking CCJ would go on an epic run, and instead it decided to reverse 4.6% on a lazy Friday afternoon.

On the plus side, it and my other main positions (BAS, AEC, HCLP) all seem to be resting just above the higher moving averages. I’m going to pretend like I care about TA for a minute and assume that means paved glory in my future, next week.

China sucks and I’m sitting around just praying PGJ gets assaulted. The BRIC thing is just really a load of garbage. They’ve been shoveling this shit to private retail money for twenty continuous years now; meanwhile, to this day, three of the above four letters in said acronym don’t even have primitive shareholder legal protections in place worth a damn.

Pathetic.

Putin is bringing down US drones and generally showing off now, as if the inability to feed and cloth his own people (or other such humiliating realities of that Russian Exceptionalism lifetstyle) were somehow forgettable next to the nostalgic grandeur of a grey haired, 62 year old man suffocating on his own bullshit.

Suffice to say, if Bush were still in office, Putin wouldn’t have the balls to be trying any of this. I know you Obama apologists will be leaping around like faggots now, whining at me for being “unfair”. What’s unfair is us living in this day and age and still needing to explain how incentives and behavior work to you stupid assholes. Choke on some humility coming off the trio of failures that are Obamacare, Foreign Policy, and the DOJ before you open your mouths in my comments section. Unless I’m mistaken, outcomes still matter more than pathetic excuses and “intent”.

The only one of the BRIC’s I would even look at is Brazil. Even there though, no need to get tangled up in the state owned populism. I’m content to just sit back, crack a beer, and watch Venezuela and Argentina burn to cinders.

I’m 25% cash, a little less cocky from this week, and certainly not up 14.5% anymore (though doing quite well).

Russia Threatens to Confiscate Foreign Owned Property

254 views

Well they went and did it now.

This is a bold move, and one that is sure to escalate things quickly. Think about how much has been put at stake trying to lift Russia out of the pit of communism, over the past two decades. Think of Goldman Sachs’ Blankfein making cross continental trips all through the ’90’s, setting up access for foreign investment into Russia’s economy.

The move is crazy, of course. If Russia started hard confiscation of assets, you’re looking at a basic replay of what happened when they defaulted on their bonds in ’98. Economic stagnation, a plunge back into hard poverty, and all. Worse, even.

The trouble is, the Russian’s are just crazy enough not to care. The ’98 default itself didn’t make any sense. It was a clear blunder – to everyone – that would only hurt Russia and those who were trying to help support the country.

And they did it anyway. And the whole time, Russia’s “leadership” looked on with straight backs and the visage of complete confidence.

Threatening to confiscate assets to get your way is a lot like threatening to shoot yourself in the face. Sure it splatters the audience in blood and inconveniences them…but you’re the one that’s dead, idiot. Yet, here we are, watching “new” Russia follow in the footsteps of “old” Russia – plus Argentina and Venezuela – and you can’t help but wonder, do the people clutching the capacity to throw this switch know something that we don’t?

Like that keeping Russia-at-large somewhere just between the stone age (fighting polar bears with empty vodka bottles) and Flint, MI is personally the best outcome for them?

There’s a small part of me that’s tempted to jump around and start hunting for deals; scouting around for people willing to take $0.50 on the dollar for their now very much imperiled Russian stakes. But that small part is quickly squelched by the much larger part of me that wants nothing to do with gangster thugs running a cross between a cult and a crime syndicate.

nOPEC

785 views

Oil just got beat again when it became public that OPEC is a dysfunctional organization. Who could have imagined that disparate oil producing nations with deep, cultural differences (read racism) might have trouble working through competition?

I never would have guessed it would crop up this quickly. But the demise of OPEC is hardly unforeseen. I myself penned an article this July discussing the possibility of the oil markets being upended.

But it is funny, reading through those thoughts going on just five months old, and seeing how violently they have diverged from what I expected.

I expected the development of US oil and gas reserves would create trouble for the old guards. I did not expect that oil would collapse 30% in two months. While you could say that those price swings were to be expected – just simple economics – I had expected the US might actually do more legislatively to erect a wall between us and the oil nations altogether. Obviously this happened much too quickly for any of that.

I had also guessed that when things started to get tough, OPEC would at least try to band together first. They’ve been successful at this in the past, so failing to construct even symbolic production cuts this round is certainly worse off along than I would have ventured.

The fallout in oil and energy names, following August, is not something I truthfully believed in. This may sound strange, but I was actually betting against myself when I made those sales of my oil and gas positions. And I never would have believed we’d fall so far. BAS is off 60% peak to trough, for crying out loud. Even when I knew we were experiencing a correction, I didn’t think it would be this extreme.

Now let’s put some context into all of this. Some of these energy names are trading at prices as bad as or worse than they were in 2010-2011 (when oil prices were pretty much where they are now); and lots of these energy companies were losing money back then, whereas they are making money today. I’m talking about BAS explicitly as an example.

So what happens now?

Well, I think that the prices of oil & gas plays are pretty compelling here. Yes oil is a bummer and there is big talk about $30 oil being right around the corner. And it’s no coincidence that I think this talk is stupid and that those responsible should be viciously ridiculed. I think the price drop is temporary, unremarkable and indistinct from any other major selloff that has gripped the price of oil in the past five years.

I think competition will continue to do real damage to the major oil nations in the world bringing about the greatest power shift of our lifetimes. But as apart from my peers, who seem to believe that a Venezuela or Russia has the ability to ramp up production into this price drop, leading to a deflationary spiral that ushers in 1990’s prices for all Western nations, I tend to feel this is silly.

You can’t call for the death of the Bakkens and simultaneously think that oil stays this low. Actually I have a hypothesis that the events that would have to converge to keep oil this low are few and far between. The big question here is timing as to when oil goes higher.

So my guess – and this is definitely just that – is that the US shale boom lives. And here’s what will enable that to happen.

These oil exporting countries have all made brazen moves with their budgets. Places like Russia, Saudi Arabia, or Iran are barely holding it together. Places like Venezuela can’t even muster that; oil prices for Venezuela are kind of like mattresses or trampolines to a guy already falling off a roof – a point of hope.

But if oil prices keep falling, you’re going to see one of these places – and Venezuela is definitely near the top of my list – buckle. Venezuela is probably the easiest case to get back to $100 oil, because one Venezuela is good enough to offset new US production. But it could just as easily be a combination of other smaller oil exporters. A half dozen of the smaller to mid size guys, or even a combination of Syria and Iraq plunging back into darkness. IS is obviously a possible trigger here; a bunch of pissed off twenty year olds, armed with rocket propelled grenades, trying to operate oil machinery? Sounds like a nice, safe combo.

What we’ve seen, repeatedly, is that when a place like, oh, Syria or Libya plunges into anarchy, it’s not just a small setback. Rather, the entire oil infrastructure gets taken offline for years at a time.

Another civil war or resurgent fighting could easily get us back to lower oil production in these places. Some US legislative work (now freed from the concerns about access to supply thanks to the US domestic advances) could help keep our own oil expertise from setting those places back up again after they tumble.

Why would we want to do this? Rome is sick of Carthage.

Just think about the sheer number of problems that these countries have dealt us over the past fifty years. We already know that the US can withstand $100 oil. We’ve been doing it for a few years now. And $100 oil benefits the US economy directly, whereas $80 oil is the worst of all worlds; too cheap or expensive to care about.

With the GOP in Congress and looking to juice the US a little, and with Obama increasingly looking for a major win, sticking a stake in the middle east is probably the lowest hanging fruit around. Kill IS by letting them destroy their own oil infrastructure, then restrict the companies that have usually bailed that region back out (Shell, Exxon, etcetera) from doing that. Lower Russia back into 1993 conditions, then tell Blankfein to keep out this time.

That’s how I see things playing out. Sure we could watch the US shale revolution just go to waste completely. But I think at this junction the US has a pretty vested interest in not letting that happen. It’s a new dawn, after all.

The Entirety Of The Saudi Arabia Rumor Is Complete Hogwash

228 views

There is a tale floating around that Saudi Arabia is somehow single handedly collapsing the price of oil to destroy Western reserve development. And it is total nonsense.

Reports last month show Saudi Arabia is actually cutting production to maintain pricing.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries finally appears to be responding to the lower demand outlook.

According to the IEA, Saudi Arabia cut its oil output by 330,000 barrels a day last month, apparently in response to lower demand from its customers and a shift in the oil producer’s focus toward Asian markets. The Kingdom’s oil exports are likely to have run below 7 million barrels a day for the last four months, their lowest level since September 2011, as domestic consumption ratcheted up over the summer and supply to the U.S. fell, the IEA said.

I would have called bull on this sooner, but I was a little out of the loop and figured the oil selloff was just a correction anyway.

As for demand concerns, IEA reports have demand for oil growing every year for the foreseeable future. They cut the steepness of this growth and now there’s a jockeying move in markets to price out certain projects. But correcting the plunge in oil is going to be as easy as some field development getting publicly mothballed.

There is absolutely no credibility to this tall tale. Saudi Arabia is not going to be able to single handedly destroy the Bakken’s. They probably wouldn’t want to anyway. The US fields need expensive oil to justify development. Expensive oil plays directly into Saudi Arabia’s hand, since they have very low cost extraction.

If Saudi Arabia insists on meeting the demand that the US fields otherwise would have provided, they’re going to do so at a price per barrel closer to $60. Up until recently, they were getting $100 just by leaving some room on the field. That means Saudi Arabia was getting the same revenue for almost half the production levels, geniuses.

What do you think that does for Saudi Arabia’s oil field life expectancy?

The Saudi’s need the fracking oil because it justifies high prices. High prices buy Saudi Arabia vastly more time. Saudi Arabia would be stupid to try and beat down newer methods of extraction because they would exhaust themselves quicker and ultimately those sources would just come back on line anyway down the line.

Hmmm…step aside for newer extraction methods, get the same revenue for half the effort (weighs the one hand)…try and physically drive these methods out of business, exert double the effort with nothing extra to show for it (weighs the other).

Quit trying to be so cute with these conspiracy theories. Jimmy can go fuck himself.

This Changes Nothing

266 views

What a dumb reason to sell off. Israel began a ground invasion and Russia probably smoked an airliner full of children. So what, I ask you, outside of the obvious moral quandaries posed there?

How does this effect US business?

If I thought for a minute the US was about to go to war, this might change something. But we’re not. Look at our chief executive – the man ate barbecue and “had a conversation” with Putin. Is that the posturing of a man itching to enter a war (or possessing a spine)?

I say to you, “no”.

These global events are fascinating to watch, and I’ve been having quite the time on Twitter watching Vox make complete asses of themselves.

But I seriously question any lasting impact either of this has on the US stock market.

A Global Power Shift Is Emerging

348 views

Short term cautions not withstanding, we are on the precipice of something great.

The entire structure of the global economy is shifting, slightly and slowly. But like all great change, the most striking of the movement comes all at once, at the end.

The United States is driving this assault of the balances of power, globally, as the energy revolution progresses on our shores. This country is set to become the biggest oil producer in the world – and we are now slowly removing the export restrictions that are the last remaining barrier to this end.

This isn’t just about US trade balances and deficits. Those numbers games matter, but they always matter less than you think.

This game is about power. Oil has been the source of power to our enemies for too long. Russia and the Middle East have fed well on global consumption of this product, erecting their cartels around the flow oil to global industry. It has made them powerful and a threat.

The move by the US to become the world’s largest producer of oil and gas can be viewed through a different lens than financial gain alone: this is also going to completely upend our adversaries. What wars and weapons and diplomacy and cooperation could not possibly have accomplished, given the entrenched interests we faced, this one mighty push on our part will quickly bring about.

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. You must get invested in it, and stay invested in it. All US leadership sees the goal, and no one objects to it. The days of getting beat about by monarchies in Saudi Arabia, needing to cut backroom deals that undermine our own morals with foreign militant groups, having to sit through endless meetings while Russian oligarchs threaten our allies with gas supply shortages…these days are coming to an end.

As the US increasingly becomes energy independent, the argument to even have relations with half these villains becomes non sequitur. We can marginalize them while circling around our true allies and real friends.

I can’t see everything that is going to come from this. Naturally US power will follow. And the North and South American continents should improve, swinging towards democracy and capitalism. Outside of that, while I think US energy independence is a good thing, I wouldn’t be surprised if war also follows. Revolutions surely, but also open war between foreign, former energy exporters who find themselves being boxed into a corner. The Saudi’s days are surely numbered, in particular.

My bet is that Russia will not change much, but they will also have to cut less lucrative deals with China to make it. So at least they will be a less powerful, less interfering Russia. Good riddance there.

Suffice to say, this is unpredictability at its best. While I think I see the theme, I do not yet hear the notes. But I’ll take my chances with it anyway. The old order of things was repulsive. I won’t be crying any tears for OPEC, or for Russia.

Well That Ended Anticlimactically

129 views

Here I was thinking CCJ would go on an epic run, and instead it decided to reverse 4.6% on a lazy Friday afternoon.

On the plus side, it and my other main positions (BAS, AEC, HCLP) all seem to be resting just above the higher moving averages. I’m going to pretend like I care about TA for a minute and assume that means paved glory in my future, next week.

China sucks and I’m sitting around just praying PGJ gets assaulted. The BRIC thing is just really a load of garbage. They’ve been shoveling this shit to private retail money for twenty continuous years now; meanwhile, to this day, three of the above four letters in said acronym don’t even have primitive shareholder legal protections in place worth a damn.

Pathetic.

Putin is bringing down US drones and generally showing off now, as if the inability to feed and cloth his own people (or other such humiliating realities of that Russian Exceptionalism lifetstyle) were somehow forgettable next to the nostalgic grandeur of a grey haired, 62 year old man suffocating on his own bullshit.

Suffice to say, if Bush were still in office, Putin wouldn’t have the balls to be trying any of this. I know you Obama apologists will be leaping around like faggots now, whining at me for being “unfair”. What’s unfair is us living in this day and age and still needing to explain how incentives and behavior work to you stupid assholes. Choke on some humility coming off the trio of failures that are Obamacare, Foreign Policy, and the DOJ before you open your mouths in my comments section. Unless I’m mistaken, outcomes still matter more than pathetic excuses and “intent”.

The only one of the BRIC’s I would even look at is Brazil. Even there though, no need to get tangled up in the state owned populism. I’m content to just sit back, crack a beer, and watch Venezuela and Argentina burn to cinders.

I’m 25% cash, a little less cocky from this week, and certainly not up 14.5% anymore (though doing quite well).

Russia Threatens to Confiscate Foreign Owned Property

254 views

Well they went and did it now.

This is a bold move, and one that is sure to escalate things quickly. Think about how much has been put at stake trying to lift Russia out of the pit of communism, over the past two decades. Think of Goldman Sachs’ Blankfein making cross continental trips all through the ’90’s, setting up access for foreign investment into Russia’s economy.

The move is crazy, of course. If Russia started hard confiscation of assets, you’re looking at a basic replay of what happened when they defaulted on their bonds in ’98. Economic stagnation, a plunge back into hard poverty, and all. Worse, even.

The trouble is, the Russian’s are just crazy enough not to care. The ’98 default itself didn’t make any sense. It was a clear blunder – to everyone – that would only hurt Russia and those who were trying to help support the country.

And they did it anyway. And the whole time, Russia’s “leadership” looked on with straight backs and the visage of complete confidence.

Threatening to confiscate assets to get your way is a lot like threatening to shoot yourself in the face. Sure it splatters the audience in blood and inconveniences them…but you’re the one that’s dead, idiot. Yet, here we are, watching “new” Russia follow in the footsteps of “old” Russia – plus Argentina and Venezuela – and you can’t help but wonder, do the people clutching the capacity to throw this switch know something that we don’t?

Like that keeping Russia-at-large somewhere just between the stone age (fighting polar bears with empty vodka bottles) and Flint, MI is personally the best outcome for them?

There’s a small part of me that’s tempted to jump around and start hunting for deals; scouting around for people willing to take $0.50 on the dollar for their now very much imperiled Russian stakes. But that small part is quickly squelched by the much larger part of me that wants nothing to do with gangster thugs running a cross between a cult and a crime syndicate.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler