The Entirety Of The Saudi Arabia Rumor Is Complete Hogwash

There is a tale floating around that Saudi Arabia is somehow single handedly collapsing the price of oil to destroy Western reserve development. And it is total nonsense.

Reports last month show Saudi Arabia is actually cutting production to maintain pricing.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries finally appears to be responding to the lower demand outlook.

According to the IEA, Saudi Arabia cut its oil output by 330,000 barrels a day last month, apparently in response to lower demand from its customers and a shift in the oil producer’s focus toward Asian markets. The Kingdom’s oil exports are likely to have run below 7 million barrels a day for the last four months, their lowest level since September 2011, as domestic consumption ratcheted up over the summer and supply to the U.S. fell, the IEA said.

I would have called bull on this sooner, but I was a little out of the loop and figured the oil selloff was just a correction anyway.

As for demand concerns, IEA reports have demand for oil growing every year for the foreseeable future. They cut the steepness of this growth and now there’s a jockeying move in markets to price out certain projects. But correcting the plunge in oil is going to be as easy as some field development getting publicly mothballed.

There is absolutely no credibility to this tall tale. Saudi Arabia is not going to be able to single handedly destroy the Bakken’s. They probably wouldn’t want to anyway. The US fields need expensive oil to justify development. Expensive oil plays directly into Saudi Arabia’s hand, since they have very low cost extraction.

If Saudi Arabia insists on meeting the demand that the US fields otherwise would have provided, they’re going to do so at a price per barrel closer to $60. Up until recently, they were getting $100 just by leaving some room on the field. That means Saudi Arabia was getting the same revenue for almost half the production levels, geniuses.

What do you think that does for Saudi Arabia’s oil field life expectancy?

The Saudi’s need the fracking oil because it justifies high prices. High prices buy Saudi Arabia vastly more time. Saudi Arabia would be stupid to try and beat down newer methods of extraction because they would exhaust themselves quicker and ultimately those sources would just come back on line anyway down the line.

Hmmm…step aside for newer extraction methods, get the same revenue for half the effort (weighs the one hand)…try and physically drive these methods out of business, exert double the effort with nothing extra to show for it (weighs the other).

Quit trying to be so cute with these conspiracy theories. Jimmy can go fuck himself.

This Changes Nothing

What a dumb reason to sell off. Israel began a ground invasion and Russia probably smoked an airliner full of children. So what, I ask you, outside of the obvious moral quandaries posed there?

How does this effect US business?

If I thought for a minute the US was about to go to war, this might change something. But we’re not. Look at our chief executive – the man ate barbecue and “had a conversation” with Putin. Is that the posturing of a man itching to enter a war (or possessing a spine)?

I say to you, “no”.

These global events are fascinating to watch, and I’ve been having quite the time on Twitter watching Vox make complete asses of themselves.

But I seriously question any lasting impact either of this has on the US stock market.

A Global Power Shift Is Emerging

Short term cautions not withstanding, we are on the precipice of something great.

The entire structure of the global economy is shifting, slightly and slowly. But like all great change, the most striking of the movement comes all at once, at the end.

The United States is driving this assault of the balances of power, globally, as the energy revolution progresses on our shores. This country is set to become the biggest oil producer in the world – and we are now slowly removing the export restrictions that are the last remaining barrier to this mighty end.

This isn’t just about US trade balances and deficits. Those numbers games matter, but they always matter less than you think.

This game is about power. Oil has been the source of power to our enemies for too long. Russia and the Middle East have fed well on global consumption of this product, erecting their cartels around the flow oil to global industry. It has made them powerful and a threat.

The move by the US to become the world’s largest producer of oil and gas can be viewed through a different lens than financial gain alone: this is also going to completely upend our adversaries. What wars and weapons and diplomacy and cooperation could not possibly have accomplished, given the entrenched interests we faced, this one might push on our part will quickly bring about.

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. You must get invested in it, and stay invested in it. All US leadership sees the goal, and no one objects to it. The days of getting beat about by monarchies in Saudi Arabia, needing to cut backroom deals that undermine our own morals with foreign militant groups, having to sit through endless meetings while Russian oligarchs threaten our allies with gas supply shortages…these days are coming to an end.

As the US increasingly becomes energy independent, the argument to even have relations with half these villains becomes non sequitur. We can marginalize them while circling around our true allies and real friends.

I can’t see everything that is going to come from this. Naturally US power will follow. And the North and South American continents should improve, swinging towards democracy and capitalism. Outside of that, while I think US energy independence is a good thing, I wouldn’t be surprised if war also follows. Revolutions surely, but also open war between foreign, former energy exporters who find themselves being boxed into a corner. The Saudi’s days are surely numbered, in particular.

My bet is that Russia will not change much, but they will also have to cut less lucrative deals with China to make it. So at least they will be a less powerful, less interfering Russia. Good riddance there.

Suffice to say, this is unpredictability at its best. While I think I see the theme, I do not yet hear the notes. But I’ll take my chances with it anyway. The old order of things was repulsive. I won’t be crying any tears for OPEC, or for Russia.

Well That Ended Anticlimactically

Here I was thinking CCJ would go on an epic run, and instead it decided to reverse 4.6% on a lazy Friday afternoon.

On the plus side, it and my other main positions (BAS, AEC, HCLP) all seem to be resting just above the higher moving averages. I’m going to pretend like I care about TA for a minute and assume that means paved glory in my future, next week.

China sucks and I’m sitting around just praying PGJ gets assaulted. The BRIC thing is just really a load of garbage. They’ve been shoveling this shit to private retail money for twenty continuous years now; meanwhile, to this day, three of the above four letters in said acronym don’t even have primitive shareholder legal protections in place worth a damn.

Pathetic.

Putin is bringing down US drones and generally showing off now, as if the inability to feed and cloth his own people (or other such humiliating realities of that Russian Exceptionalism lifetstyle) were somehow forgettable next to the nostalgic grandeur of a grey haired, 62 year old man suffocating on his own bullshit.

Suffice to say, if Bush were still in office, Putin wouldn’t have the balls to be trying any of this. I know you Obama apologists will be leaping around like faggots now, whining at me for being “unfair”. What’s unfair is us living in this day and age and still needing to explain how incentives and behavior work to you stupid assholes. Choke on some humility coming off the trio of failures that are Obamacare, Foreign Policy, and the DOJ before you open your mouths in my comments section. Unless I’m mistaken, outcomes still matter more than pathetic excuses and “intent”.

The only one of the BRIC’s I would even look at is Brazil. Even there though, no need to get tangled up in the state owned populism. I’m content to just sit back, crack a beer, and watch Venezuela and Argentina burn to cinders.

I’m 25% cash, a little less cocky from this week, and certainly not up 14.5% anymore (though doing quite well).

Russia Threatens to Confiscate Foreign Owned Property

Well they went and did it now.

This is a bold move, and one that is sure to escalate things quickly. Think about how much has been put at stake trying to lift Russia out of the pit of communism, over the past two decades. Think of Goldman Sachs’ Blankfein making cross continental trips all through the ’90′s, setting up access for foreign investment into Russia’s economy.

The move is crazy, of course. If Russia started hard confiscation of assets, you’re looking at a basic replay of what happened when they defaulted on their bonds in ’98. Economic stagnation, a plunge back into hard poverty, and all. Worse, even.

The trouble is, the Russian’s are just crazy enough not to care. The ’98 default itself didn’t make any sense. It was a clear blunder – to everyone – that would only hurt Russia and those who were trying to help support the country.

And they did it anyway. And the whole time, Russia’s “leadership” looked on with straight backs and the visage of complete confidence.

Threatening to confiscate assets to get your way is a lot like threatening to shoot yourself in the face. Sure it splatters the audience in blood and inconveniences them…but you’re the one that’s dead, idiot. Yet, here we are, watching “new” Russia follow in the footsteps of “old” Russia – plus Argentina and Venezuela – and you can’t help but wonder, do the people clutching the capacity to throw this switch know something that we don’t?

Like that keeping Russia-at-large somewhere just between the stone age (fighting polar bears with empty vodka bottles) and Flint, MI is personally the best outcome for them?

There’s a small part of me that’s tempted to jump around and start hunting for deals; scouting around for people willing to take $0.50 on the dollar for their now very much imperiled Russian stakes. But that small part is quickly squelched by the much larger part of me that wants nothing to do with gangster thugs running a cross between a cult and a crime syndicate.

Exhausted, Personally. But Everything Else Is Fine

I spent last night running around Detroit, doing what-have-you. I rolled into bed around two after midnight, and have spent the day in a stupor, daydreaming longingly of dreaming today.

CCJ is easing off a bit, but look at the move it made. This isn’t a problem, it’s earned a small nap. Much like the one I want to be taking.

Markets look tranquil, and I’m just waiting for the blaze higher to resume. Foreign debt is calm; holy hell! Greed 10 years are back below 7%. How did this happen?

Who would have guessed going long Greek debt in 2012 would be the trade of the decade?

ZZZzzz

The Entirety Of The Saudi Arabia Rumor Is Complete Hogwash

There is a tale floating around that Saudi Arabia is somehow single handedly collapsing the price of oil to destroy Western reserve development. And it is total nonsense.

Reports last month show Saudi Arabia is actually cutting production to maintain pricing.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries finally appears to be responding to the lower demand outlook.

According to the IEA, Saudi Arabia cut its oil output by 330,000 barrels a day last month, apparently in response to lower demand from its customers and a shift in the oil producer’s focus toward Asian markets. The Kingdom’s oil exports are likely to have run below 7 million barrels a day for the last four months, their lowest level since September 2011, as domestic consumption ratcheted up over the summer and supply to the U.S. fell, the IEA said.

I would have called bull on this sooner, but I was a little out of the loop and figured the oil selloff was just a correction anyway.

As for demand concerns, IEA reports have demand for oil growing every year for the foreseeable future. They cut the steepness of this growth and now there’s a jockeying move in markets to price out certain projects. But correcting the plunge in oil is going to be as easy as some field development getting publicly mothballed.

There is absolutely no credibility to this tall tale. Saudi Arabia is not going to be able to single handedly destroy the Bakken’s. They probably wouldn’t want to anyway. The US fields need expensive oil to justify development. Expensive oil plays directly into Saudi Arabia’s hand, since they have very low cost extraction.

If Saudi Arabia insists on meeting the demand that the US fields otherwise would have provided, they’re going to do so at a price per barrel closer to $60. Up until recently, they were getting $100 just by leaving some room on the field. That means Saudi Arabia was getting the same revenue for almost half the production levels, geniuses.

What do you think that does for Saudi Arabia’s oil field life expectancy?

The Saudi’s need the fracking oil because it justifies high prices. High prices buy Saudi Arabia vastly more time. Saudi Arabia would be stupid to try and beat down newer methods of extraction because they would exhaust themselves quicker and ultimately those sources would just come back on line anyway down the line.

Hmmm…step aside for newer extraction methods, get the same revenue for half the effort (weighs the one hand)…try and physically drive these methods out of business, exert double the effort with nothing extra to show for it (weighs the other).

Quit trying to be so cute with these conspiracy theories. Jimmy can go fuck himself.

This Changes Nothing

What a dumb reason to sell off. Israel began a ground invasion and Russia probably smoked an airliner full of children. So what, I ask you, outside of the obvious moral quandaries posed there?

How does this effect US business?

If I thought for a minute the US was about to go to war, this might change something. But we’re not. Look at our chief executive – the man ate barbecue and “had a conversation” with Putin. Is that the posturing of a man itching to enter a war (or possessing a spine)?

I say to you, “no”.

These global events are fascinating to watch, and I’ve been having quite the time on Twitter watching Vox make complete asses of themselves.

But I seriously question any lasting impact either of this has on the US stock market.

A Global Power Shift Is Emerging

Short term cautions not withstanding, we are on the precipice of something great.

The entire structure of the global economy is shifting, slightly and slowly. But like all great change, the most striking of the movement comes all at once, at the end.

The United States is driving this assault of the balances of power, globally, as the energy revolution progresses on our shores. This country is set to become the biggest oil producer in the world – and we are now slowly removing the export restrictions that are the last remaining barrier to this mighty end.

This isn’t just about US trade balances and deficits. Those numbers games matter, but they always matter less than you think.

This game is about power. Oil has been the source of power to our enemies for too long. Russia and the Middle East have fed well on global consumption of this product, erecting their cartels around the flow oil to global industry. It has made them powerful and a threat.

The move by the US to become the world’s largest producer of oil and gas can be viewed through a different lens than financial gain alone: this is also going to completely upend our adversaries. What wars and weapons and diplomacy and cooperation could not possibly have accomplished, given the entrenched interests we faced, this one might push on our part will quickly bring about.

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. You must get invested in it, and stay invested in it. All US leadership sees the goal, and no one objects to it. The days of getting beat about by monarchies in Saudi Arabia, needing to cut backroom deals that undermine our own morals with foreign militant groups, having to sit through endless meetings while Russian oligarchs threaten our allies with gas supply shortages…these days are coming to an end.

As the US increasingly becomes energy independent, the argument to even have relations with half these villains becomes non sequitur. We can marginalize them while circling around our true allies and real friends.

I can’t see everything that is going to come from this. Naturally US power will follow. And the North and South American continents should improve, swinging towards democracy and capitalism. Outside of that, while I think US energy independence is a good thing, I wouldn’t be surprised if war also follows. Revolutions surely, but also open war between foreign, former energy exporters who find themselves being boxed into a corner. The Saudi’s days are surely numbered, in particular.

My bet is that Russia will not change much, but they will also have to cut less lucrative deals with China to make it. So at least they will be a less powerful, less interfering Russia. Good riddance there.

Suffice to say, this is unpredictability at its best. While I think I see the theme, I do not yet hear the notes. But I’ll take my chances with it anyway. The old order of things was repulsive. I won’t be crying any tears for OPEC, or for Russia.

Well That Ended Anticlimactically

Here I was thinking CCJ would go on an epic run, and instead it decided to reverse 4.6% on a lazy Friday afternoon.

On the plus side, it and my other main positions (BAS, AEC, HCLP) all seem to be resting just above the higher moving averages. I’m going to pretend like I care about TA for a minute and assume that means paved glory in my future, next week.

China sucks and I’m sitting around just praying PGJ gets assaulted. The BRIC thing is just really a load of garbage. They’ve been shoveling this shit to private retail money for twenty continuous years now; meanwhile, to this day, three of the above four letters in said acronym don’t even have primitive shareholder legal protections in place worth a damn.

Pathetic.

Putin is bringing down US drones and generally showing off now, as if the inability to feed and cloth his own people (or other such humiliating realities of that Russian Exceptionalism lifetstyle) were somehow forgettable next to the nostalgic grandeur of a grey haired, 62 year old man suffocating on his own bullshit.

Suffice to say, if Bush were still in office, Putin wouldn’t have the balls to be trying any of this. I know you Obama apologists will be leaping around like faggots now, whining at me for being “unfair”. What’s unfair is us living in this day and age and still needing to explain how incentives and behavior work to you stupid assholes. Choke on some humility coming off the trio of failures that are Obamacare, Foreign Policy, and the DOJ before you open your mouths in my comments section. Unless I’m mistaken, outcomes still matter more than pathetic excuses and “intent”.

The only one of the BRIC’s I would even look at is Brazil. Even there though, no need to get tangled up in the state owned populism. I’m content to just sit back, crack a beer, and watch Venezuela and Argentina burn to cinders.

I’m 25% cash, a little less cocky from this week, and certainly not up 14.5% anymore (though doing quite well).

Russia Threatens to Confiscate Foreign Owned Property

Well they went and did it now.

This is a bold move, and one that is sure to escalate things quickly. Think about how much has been put at stake trying to lift Russia out of the pit of communism, over the past two decades. Think of Goldman Sachs’ Blankfein making cross continental trips all through the ’90′s, setting up access for foreign investment into Russia’s economy.

The move is crazy, of course. If Russia started hard confiscation of assets, you’re looking at a basic replay of what happened when they defaulted on their bonds in ’98. Economic stagnation, a plunge back into hard poverty, and all. Worse, even.

The trouble is, the Russian’s are just crazy enough not to care. The ’98 default itself didn’t make any sense. It was a clear blunder – to everyone – that would only hurt Russia and those who were trying to help support the country.

And they did it anyway. And the whole time, Russia’s “leadership” looked on with straight backs and the visage of complete confidence.

Threatening to confiscate assets to get your way is a lot like threatening to shoot yourself in the face. Sure it splatters the audience in blood and inconveniences them…but you’re the one that’s dead, idiot. Yet, here we are, watching “new” Russia follow in the footsteps of “old” Russia – plus Argentina and Venezuela – and you can’t help but wonder, do the people clutching the capacity to throw this switch know something that we don’t?

Like that keeping Russia-at-large somewhere just between the stone age (fighting polar bears with empty vodka bottles) and Flint, MI is personally the best outcome for them?

There’s a small part of me that’s tempted to jump around and start hunting for deals; scouting around for people willing to take $0.50 on the dollar for their now very much imperiled Russian stakes. But that small part is quickly squelched by the much larger part of me that wants nothing to do with gangster thugs running a cross between a cult and a crime syndicate.

Exhausted, Personally. But Everything Else Is Fine

I spent last night running around Detroit, doing what-have-you. I rolled into bed around two after midnight, and have spent the day in a stupor, daydreaming longingly of dreaming today.

CCJ is easing off a bit, but look at the move it made. This isn’t a problem, it’s earned a small nap. Much like the one I want to be taking.

Markets look tranquil, and I’m just waiting for the blaze higher to resume. Foreign debt is calm; holy hell! Greed 10 years are back below 7%. How did this happen?

Who would have guessed going long Greek debt in 2012 would be the trade of the decade?

ZZZzzz

2014 iBankCoin Investors Conference
Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler