Yes it is….

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I haven’t a whole lot to add, save that I expect a ripping bounce (at least) if not a further resumption of the dollar bow-out.   We actually came within four cents of hitting $82.50 after hours on the DXY (dollar index) and I wouldn’t be surprised if she tried for the 50-day at $83.06 after such a ramp.

That said, The PPT is very deeply oversold and that’s worked as a signal for me for the duration, so I will respect it.   The dollar has already busted into overbought territory on the 5-day RSI stochastic, and even the slow stoch is  catching up after being severely oversold just yesterday.  Expect volatility, but continue to expect dollar death.  It’s already back down to $82.25 this evening.

For tomorrow, in time-honored The PPT tradition, I will be soaking in a mixture of Epsom salts and TNA at the open.   As an after-bath aperitif, I will be enjoying a balsamic vinaigrette and gin reduction of ENTR, which wants higher, despite today’s crazy ride.

Gold is holding steady and so is silver.  Add to long term plays as you see fit.  RBY was even up today, God bless her.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qO66Rmi1Mw 450 300]

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Just in case any of you Wall of Worry Erectors have missed the boat these last few important days, I’ve elected to make it much simpler for you with a quick chart review. 

You can print this out and put it in your wallet, and then whip it out any time the market is giving you the knackers or the frosty shivs.   We can call it your own homemade “C.F.A. merit badge” and if you send it to me with a self-addressed stamped envelope, I’ll even autograph it for you to make it all official-like.

Laminate it, why don’t you?

Now that you’ve got all you need to parse the markets for the next six to twelve months, I don’t feel so bad taking off for the Annual iBC – Fly Convention and Hay Ride (down 9th Avenue this year, accompanied by a Trannie Jazz Band, it so happens).    I will try to get a post in tomorrow, but as I will be traversing this great earth with the entire family, I would implore you not to get over-antsy about it.

ANV and IAG continued to knock bawls like Jerry Nadler at the last Matzoh Ball Deli in Brooklyn.   EGO and SLW also punish detractors, as do the other silver gods, EXK, PAAS and of course, MVG.   Hat tip to the Most Wrong Blog in Internets History for crapping on silver today and ensuring our big wins.   As always, your karma boomarang is most appreciated.

It looks like we got the beginning of a well-expected dollar rebound today, though I don’t believe it will amount to much.   We may get a bit above $81, but then, you’ve got your laminated cheat sheet to reassure you on ultimate targets now, don’t you?  So chin up, and hang on.

Best to you all.

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Guess Who?
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It’s very important  thaty you make your own inquiries in this world, and not rely on the expert testimony of even the chief-most of Lemmings.   There are many ways to skin a rodent, and each trapper has his own preferred signal.   One should not just adopt this ferret’s “inventory to sales” ratio, or that stoat’s “days short outstanding.” 

For example, I’ve offered you two macro-drivers that keep me optimistic in the near term:  Overall poor sentiment and the continuing degradation of the dollar.

I’ve mentioned here before that Jason Goepfort of Sentimen Trader had been warning for weeks prior to our current relief that bearish sentiment had dropped to levels equal or worse to those we saw prior to the early March ’09 market rebound.  

 That kind of bad sentiment doesn’t just provide a wall of worry for a corresponding bullish cycle — it offers a veritable Great Wall of China of Worry.   Look around the site at the posters pulling out great hanks of hair in disbelief that their prophesied market crash has yet to appear.  Remember this: the frequency of their ululations shall be your comfort.

I just hope they are not holding their breath.   Well, there’s always open auditions for the Blue Man Group, I guess….

My second contrarian-return to the mean reason for my bullishness is the fact that this current bull is powered by steam from a steam-punk unit. 

Well, er, okay… it’s either that or the fact the dollar has been plummeting since early June...

That’s quite a move in two months, no?   In fact, I for one continue to expect a rebound, and $80 looks like the right place.   That won’t mean I will discontinue laying the hot blade of lemming death to mine enemies, or lose my bullish bias any time soon.  There are reversals and then their are “corrections.”   The latter is all we’ll get here.

In fact, you all may want to take advantage of that bounce at $80, should it come, and grab some quick fire longs or PM’s you’ve been lusting after.  The way the dollar’s been trading since the Euro scare, it’s not shown a whole lot of relative strength, and even in a rebound, we may not have to wait for long.   

The charade is about up, I think, and pretty soon there will be a full fledged waterfall action on the greenback.   This is my reserved and considered opinion, of course, but one formed in the crucible of study and scenario generation.  I would advise you take similar steps to determine your own way, lest you find your next step deeper than you expected.

You know I like EGO, GFI, IAG and SLW here.   RBY is starting to move again as well, and watch for a break of $6.45 on MVG before partaking.   That may make the difference.  Oh yes, ANV is not done by a long shot, but it should pause for a breather here at $18.50 or so.  

Non-precious, I like farmer ANDE here, again.

Play on, then.

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Update! — Some interesting news from our 1.5 billion-count creditors.

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Right now (12:20 am, July 29th), the dollar is below it’s support line of $82.00 at $81.993.   If this break holds, the next stop is $80, and MOOOOOOORRRE!

I am not going to screw around with any charts, as I am tired even unto my bones.   But don’t let this minor negligence keep you from the Christmas presents that you can gather and mail yourselves early, here in late July.

You know the recommendations.  If you don’t you can surely ask.   I’ve added to my hordes of SLW, ANV, EGO and IAG in the last two days, and tomorrow, I may even add some AGQ and EXK and PAAS because I think the silver exposure here could be even more bountiful than that of the gold.

Lastly, RGLD is right on on it’s 24-month EMA, and that’s held as support since the end of 2008.  That’s right, you read that right.   I have metric tonnes of this stock (like I do SLW), but I may even get some more myself tomorrow, as it’s some 15%  from its recent highs, and I think it, too, is done pulling back.

Caveat: there may be some more “down” to go, but I would be reluctant to bank on it.   These are rare times, and rare times often mean opportunity.

Best to you all.

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What a lucky bunch you are.

No, seriously, you are in for some fun tomorrow, especially if you are a PM “noob,” because we may get a gold and silver sale tomorrow that would put even a semi-retarded Wal-Mart jewelry clerk to shame.

It looks like we’re getting one last final swaller before we do our annual Santa run, and this one may turn out to be fun for short and long term trader’s alike.

I’m not going to show you last night’s price of gold chart again (just click one back to see it), but suffice it to say we are “right on” the 34-week EMA, just as I’d expected.   Seems we made the entire move in one day.   And on relatively light volume.   What does that tell you?  Keep in mind we’ve got COMEX options expiring today as well. 

I announced in The PPT and later on my blog that I had taken the opportunity to grab some more IAG and SLW, as both of those looked ripe for a bounce, even more so than my planned purchase of ANV.  Looking again at the longer term charts, I see that SLW could drop another dollar lower than my $18.09 purchase price, and if it does, you should take advantage.

I think ANV will finally be ripe for plucking tomorrow, maybe as early as the open.   The daily picture tells the tale here:

Looks scary, but in fact, the 200-day EMAhas been a beautiful place to pick up discounted goods in this secular precious metal bull, and you are lucky to see it once again, despite the seemingly perilous status of the situation.   Look again at that three month move from February to May, and keep in mind we are coming to Santa-season sooner than you think. 

Ho ho ho!

My other “favorite” that is looking awfully tempting for tomorrow is my massive EGO.   This time, the weekly has the better view:

 If you can catch this one anywhere near $14.90 (the 34-week EMA) then you are golden, pony boy.

I like SLW and PAAS as your silvers on any kind of gold bounce, but so does Barron’s, so for safety, I’d look at EXK here too. 

Best to you all, and happy hunting tomorrow, you lucky dawgs.

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Addendum:  For  you political types… this is one of the best articles I’ve read all year on the historical and political analysis of our currently “evolved” system of government.   I think Purdy and probably M. Le Docteur would both love it…  Angelo M. Codevilla’s The American Ruling Class, and the Perils of Revolution.   Excellent stuff, really.

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Some of you get a tad nervous and that’s understandable. You haven’t been sailin’ the seas lo these last ten years with a chest of silver and a chest of gold amid-decks, watching the waves break over your port bow and the rigging whip up under many a Jamaica squall.

‘Tis a pity, as it’s rendered many of ye as feckless and gray-faced as a feral stoat during the slaughtering season when it comes to any down-draft in ye positions. 

If there’s one thing I could keep in your mind it’s that the PM”s are a volatile lot.   Like a powderkeg in a burning fireworks factory, ye shall be shaken about before ye’re borne to heaven.

But your time is not yet, and neither is it the hour for hand wringing.   There may very well be one last shake of the lamb’s tail before we ascend over again into the high surf and the sun scuppered seas.   I say “may” because with silver’s recent strength leading the prow, it’s just as likely we take off like a shot tomorrow, mimicking the dolphins of tech like CREE and VECO, the latter of which blew out it’s numbers tonight and should offer boundless booty to ye faithful who stuck with her.   As well, POWR should benefit from that triumph.

As usual, I think it’s the weekly charts that give the best perspective, and the weekly of $GOLD should be no exception.  Look here on the direction I think we should take in the coming month.  That short dip may very well be our last gasp at these levels, and if so, I’ve amasse some dry powder to partake in more ANV and SLW in the coming week.

My best to you all, as ye make yer way through the shoals of Uncertainty.

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