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What a lucky bunch you are.
No, seriously, you are in for some fun tomorrow, especially if you are a PM “noob,” because we may get a gold and silver sale tomorrow that would put even a semi-retarded Wal-Mart jewelry clerk to shame.
It looks like we’re getting one last final swaller before we do our annual Santa run, and this one may turn out to be fun for short and long term trader’s alike.
I’m not going to show you last night’s price of gold chart again (just click one back to see it), but suffice it to say we are “right on” the 34-week EMA, just as I’d expected. Seems we made the entire move in one day. And on relatively light volume. What does that tell you? Keep in mind we’ve got COMEX options expiring today as well.
I announced in The PPT and later on my blog that I had taken the opportunity to grab some more IAG and SLW, as both of those looked ripe for a bounce, even more so than my planned purchase of ANV. Looking again at the longer term charts, I see that SLW could drop another dollar lower than my $18.09 purchase price, and if it does, you should take advantage.
I think ANV will finally be ripe for plucking tomorrow, maybe as early as the open. The daily picture tells the tale here:
Looks scary, but in fact, the 200-day EMAhas been a beautiful place to pick up discounted goods in this secular precious metal bull, and you are lucky to see it once again, despite the seemingly perilous status of the situation. Look again at that three month move from February to May, and keep in mind we are coming to Santa-season sooner than you think.
Ho ho ho!
My other “favorite” that is looking awfully tempting for tomorrow is my massive EGO. This time, the weekly has the better view:
If you can catch this one anywhere near $14.90 (the 34-week EMA) then you are golden, pony boy.
I like SLW and PAAS as your silvers on any kind of gold bounce, but so does Barron’s, so for safety, I’d look at EXK here too.
Best to you all, and happy hunting tomorrow, you lucky dawgs.
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Addendum: For you political types… this is one of the best articles I’ve read all year on the historical and political analysis of our currently “evolved” system of government. I think Purdy and probably M. Le Docteur would both love it… Angelo M. Codevilla’s The American Ruling Class, and the Perils of Revolution. Excellent stuff, really.
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I don’t believe auric will hold the line here, sir. There are other baubles more enticing….like equities, perhaps.
As was said in the days of old, “Run away! Run away!”
You’ve doubted before, young Thomas.
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I’ve been a gold bug all my life and have profited from the rise as much or more then the next guy but with all that said I truly worry that “this time will different”. I can’t help the feeling I get in my gut when I look at my Gold charts…something just doesn’t sit right with me.
“something just doesnt sit right with me”. ahh so, it’s called the calm before the storm. have had the same feeling for a long while myself. the powers that be, are deciding whether we should wake up to 15 hundo,or 2 g,on gold,and you can almost “smell” that silver wants to go parabolic……… if,and when it does occur,it could be one of the best laid plan,to debt resolution for bad management countries’ such as ourself, the U.K. and other countries that owe big time money to china. it’s their only way out,just short of world default. and if that goes down,the chinese just may unleash the north koreans on some of us.
Someone was nice enough to pass along this blog post http://bit.ly/cqoedN on how the smart money is likely to gun the stops on gold below support.
Amazing declines in IAG and ANV recently.
Got IAG yesterday and ANV today.
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I’m thinkin a little DGP might be good here
A strong article Gint, and even a nod to my philosophical successor(s), sic. Thanks.
Jake-
What’s your feeling on RGLD? obviously they had the offering at $48 a few weeks back, but do you see it making a move with your anticipated “Santa Claus” rally? It is currently under major averages… better to wait for it to regain them before taking a position?
Cheers!
I think it’s a screaming bargain here, especially under $43.
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If you are trading secular bull in gold why wouldn’t you RGLD more at a lower price…..
Heck it is like someone saying I like Cree @70 and I always bullish on it. Why wouldnt i like it at 65.. well maybe because next stop was 60 or so.
I started buying RGLD almost ten years ago, at under $5. I am still buying it, to this day.
Does this clear things up for you?
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…….. I had no clarification needed…. .I already know your view and how you trade it. But thanks anyways.
Thoughts?
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/2010/07/28/gold-is-not-inflationary/
The accompanying pic is horribly underlit.
Bad-ump-chaaa!
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We’ve talked about gold’s traditional role as an anxiety drug for the risk averse, but I think that role reflects a temporary phenomenon, and the thesis here (“crazy” as it may be) is that gold is in a secular bull for the last nine plus years because we are destroying the currency.
As you may have noted, I don’t trade my positions all that much, often eschewing full-out sales for partial or even covered call writing. I can do that because gold is in this secular bull and I’m up large on the least of my long term positions. Therefore, if gold is not in a secular bull anymore, I want out, no matter what the nervous nellie factions may opine.
That said, what you may not be incorporating in your hypothesis is the Fed’s growing fecklessness with regard to flooding the market with liquidity every time there’s a global crisis on the horizon (Y2K, 911 and Iraq War being just three examples).
In those cases you may actually be witnessing the short term excuse of risk adversity masking the long term prudence of hedging a weakening dollar.
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we call that kind of talk blasphemy around here
how did you get your teeth so white? photoshop?
I brush my teeth with AJAX
I want the cowboy hat picture back.
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Jake, from PPT……it sounds like both the dollar and gold in your statement would have a end of days type defense in deflationary times rather than a fundamental defense to inflation??
I hope at least you get some pleasure out of explaining to a n00b!! lol
Chivo — yes, in “end of days” deflationary setting, gold is still a bulwark against loss of value, even as the dollar appreciates. In an inflationary or hyper-inflationary market, it will be the only game in town as well (some hot shot techs may be survivable too, of course).
It’s the Bayer aspirin of the investing world.
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I understand that in inflationary times, gold is about the best thing you can own… conversely, i’m still trying to understand it’s value in deflationary times… I mean, there really is no fundamental argument for a rising asset class in deflation…any asset class.. as the price of everything drops, correct?? The only thing i’d want to own is bond prices…as they are inverse to rates and rates have to come down when deflation hits… however, i do understand that deflation is an economy’s worst enemy and could actually propel some end of days trades, where safety can be found in gold and perhaps the best currency in the world (even though all the fiat currencies suck and really gold is the best currency in the world) so maybe the dollar…but whether gold and the dollar are good to own under deflation is debatable, really, and depends on how bad deflation is?
Also, I know your viewpoint on bernanke and co. and also obamacare etc gubmint spending from reading your blog regularly…. so I’m wondering how you feel about the impending elections and their affect on QE II?
Remember that gold is a store of value, so in deflationary time (lowering prices) it should buy more, just like a deflating dollar.
I think Bernanke will have a lot of pressure on him to keep the good times rolling through the election, hence QE for all my friends.
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Also…bonds really are just an agreement to exchange fiat money now for fiat money later…and in effect aren’t that great an investment as all your gains are denominated in bullshit money anyway…so i’m not so sure i’d want to own bonds either, unless i’m continually cashing out the profits & buying gold as still an end of days trade LOL..which would mean deflation would have to hit hardcore
Jake, what do you know about MVG?
looks like dumb money is selling the break of the trend line while smart money is accumulating (idiots, PM’s don’t trade that shit)
take a look at the low vol pullback on the monthly, right onto 20MA support
I own some MVG, along w. CDE, HL, EXK, PAAS, SSRI and of course, SLW. I haven’t added to it in a while, as I consider it a weak sister, but as for the chart, I think I’d hold off until she broke that $6.40 area, to make sure she’s done screwing around.
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ANV looks too good to not buy. I just picked some up too. Thanks for the tip. What is your stop loss if I may ask.
I bought ANV originally at well below $6.00. These are not “stop loss” kind of plays, ovah heah.
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Just picked up some ANV too.
jake,you got to read James Altuchers latest column on the shiney stuff. he posted on twits.just the comments alone are comedic
Might you have a link?
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Is it this?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216631-the-only-gold-stock-i-m-buying
Per my wave guy:
> tony caldaro – 27 minutes ago
Yes, still with the target of $3750 for Gold.
Technicals suggest this current downtrend should be the last good buying opportunity. <
Readers of this blog, you have been notified. The charts, the waves and monetary policy can only be retarded but not denied.
Prepare to Cast Off Maties!
Hey Jake, are we running out of gold?
Running out?
Let’s just say the ratio is down compared to the amount of dollars extant.
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go over to twits, punch up his name, and all his twits come up. click onto his article.it’s his second to last post.
No tweets on Twitter.. Can’t you post a link fer Christmas sakes?
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