Guess Who?
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It’s very important thaty you make your own inquiries in this world, and not rely on the expert testimony of even the chief-most of Lemmings. There are many ways to skin a rodent, and each trapper has his own preferred signal. One should not just adopt this ferret’s “inventory to sales” ratio, or that stoat’s “days short outstanding.”
For example, I’ve offered you two macro-drivers that keep me optimistic in the near term: Overall poor sentiment and the continuing degradation of the dollar.
I’ve mentioned here before that Jason Goepfort of Sentimen Trader had been warning for weeks prior to our current relief that bearish sentiment had dropped to levels equal or worse to those we saw prior to the early March ’09 market rebound.
That kind of bad sentiment doesn’t just provide a wall of worry for a corresponding bullish cycle — it offers a veritable Great Wall of China of Worry. Look around the site at the posters pulling out great hanks of hair in disbelief that their prophesied market crash has yet to appear. Remember this: the frequency of their ululations shall be your comfort.
I just hope they are not holding their breath. Well, there’s always open auditions for the Blue Man Group, I guess….
My second contrarian-return to the mean reason for my bullishness is the fact that this current bull is powered by steam from a steam-punk unit.
Well, er, okay… it’s either that or the fact the dollar has been plummeting since early June...
That’s quite a move in two months, no? In fact, I for one continue to expect a rebound, and $80 looks like the right place. That won’t mean I will discontinue laying the hot blade of lemming death to mine enemies, or lose my bullish bias any time soon. There are reversals and then their are “corrections.” The latter is all we’ll get here.
In fact, you all may want to take advantage of that bounce at $80, should it come, and grab some quick fire longs or PM’s you’ve been lusting after. The way the dollar’s been trading since the Euro scare, it’s not shown a whole lot of relative strength, and even in a rebound, we may not have to wait for long.
The charade is about up, I think, and pretty soon there will be a full fledged waterfall action on the greenback. This is my reserved and considered opinion, of course, but one formed in the crucible of study and scenario generation. I would advise you take similar steps to determine your own way, lest you find your next step deeper than you expected.
You know I like EGO, GFI, IAG and SLW here. RBY is starting to move again as well, and watch for a break of $6.45 on MVG before partaking. That may make the difference. Oh yes, ANV is not done by a long shot, but it should pause for a breather here at $18.50 or so.
Non-precious, I like farmer ANDE here, again.
Play on, then.
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Update! — Some interesting news from our 1.5 billion-count creditors.
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If you were not a blogger here, i’d ban you.
Ah but would I get a tee shirt for bring #301?
Actually, I thought the portrait rather dashing.
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Jake,
When you get to pause for breather time, do you cut back on said PM’s, i.e., sell a bit and buy at lower prices or do you just ride through to the other side?
If you are sensitive to fluctuations you might want to lay off some ANV here at resistance. Otherwise, set it and forget it.
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Anyone for IBC lemming T-shirts?
And ANV prints a $19.00 in the pre-market. All I have to say is JIG!
Just picked up some IAG pre-market.
That was fortuitous!
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I noticed that Gio is now short EGO on his blog. I don’t follow his logic. I’m still long. Someone has to be on the other side of that trade.
Seems rather risky to short a secular bull play, but what do I know?
Maybe he’s hanging out with Huggy and dousing himself w. butane whilst making sea-dragon drawings in the air with lit sparklers?
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Wow, Gio is nuts. There is a ton of mo mo behind this move in Gold. He’s gonna get blown out of the water.
Should be a little bit of a pullback coming… he should be able to get out relatively unharmed.
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I agree. This move is a bit too much too fast. I am glad I picked up the IAG in the pre-market, and this time unlike what I did with ANV, I will be holding it.
very nice.
Where you at, Crazee Kat?
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LOL
i am getting to feel like Pacino in godfather 3; keep trying to get out, and getting pulled back in.
close to finalizing paperwork for my new hedge fund
Sweet. Glad you are back in the saddle, old friend.
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European Union banks debt and demographics are in worse shape than us. We have the best turds in the room going forward. All turds eventually get flushed
Easy to say. Very hard to do. Wasn’t this covered in one of the early Market Wizards books?
Now this is a lucid post! If only you could explain drivers of the “macro drivers”, namely degradation of the dollar, the thesis would be complete…
On a sidenote, Jake, remember the discussion about Intel’s kickbacks to Dell? Check out this article on WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704017904575409152910216786.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business). This confirms that their practices were illegal according to the anti-trust law (thought it’d be interesting).
DPZ – why did you switch your handle/gravatar?
Annoying Kreuzi is DPZ?
No wonder his annoyance had a hint of familiarity to it.
W. regard to the degredation of the dollar question, you must be cartooning me. This entire blog is about why and how they are doing it. Now that I know you are not a first time caller, I’m really pissed. Stop wasting my time.
As for the Dell-Intel thing, I could actually see it being an anti-trust matter more, according to current law (I think most anti-trust law is bullshit, fwiw, but…), but the blame would be more in Intel’s court than Dell’s.
Whatever the case, Dell was not smacked for anti-trust anyway.
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DMG, I’m not “DPZ”, whoever it was. I am an authentic first-time caller. So, Jake, don’t be pissed. Save it for later.
Regarding the dollar degradation. Well, sorry, I asked the wrong guy. Or, to put it differently, I was searching for different kind of reasoning, not based on TA. Call it macro, fundies, whatever. The point is that charting is a 2nd or even 3rd derivative of the underlying, and the latter is missing in your posts.
Again, don’t be offended and don’t be annoyed. You don’t really expect “JIGs” here, do you?
I’m not offended. The fundamental reasons have been laid out here multiple times.
The blog is archived. Go at it.
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Yeah yeah – whatevs, dpiezel… You’re telling me this aint you? Trying to school mr. stoxrider over in the pg. i can smell the stench of your smug condescension through my screen.
“kreizi says:
July 2, 2010 at 6:06 am
Novices must never be allowed to have more than 2 star ratings for they become lazy and complacent. Work through the ranks, who knows, one day you might become the tabbed blogger. Community here spits on ranks–we look for clever thoughts and insights.
Gentlemen,
I am flattered by all the undeserved attention which you have bestowed upon me, however, for the fear of being caught by the original bearer of “DPZ” moniker, I have to solemnly testify that I am not that distinguished gentleman, I have never made any business with him, and I in no respect should be affiliated with him.
Bien à vous,
Monsieur Kreizi
Whatever, ‘Dude’. – Din’t you have the Big Lebowski as your gravatar at first?
You say you’re new, yet claim age old insight on the workings of the PG.
If not DPZ, what was your former handle?
Either way, don’t be flattered.
A very good day to be in the PMs
hat tips.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/01/31/therovingcavaliersofcredit/
“…Bernanke would need to not merely double M0, but to increase it by a factor of, say, 25 from pre-intervention levels.”
That’s some good stuff, thanks… I am about halfway through…
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Yes, i am kicking myself for selling out of MON at 58.15 but even more so for not buying GFI on monday, my buy limit a few pennies shy.
scheisse!
What makes you guys think kreizi is DPZ? Their writing styles are totally different.
FRG and MVG joining the party … must have been AREX’s B-Day, haha!
Comedy Gold: Paul Krugman Gives Up
Awesome, though not surprising, unfortch.
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