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Tag Archives: SLW

On the Important Matter of the Swine Flu

An expert rebuttal:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaK9bjLy3v4 450 300]

PPT Favorite (at one time #1 pick) QSII (PPT: Buy) is looking like it wants to make another move over 52-week highs here.   On the PM side, the one damn silver stock I have been watching but not recommending — SSRI (PPT: Sell) is making a nice catch up move here, to it’s recent highs of $17.88, but I think it needs  nice pullback and $17.00 or so would provide a better entry when it does.  In the meantime, SLW (PPT: Sell)  (back above it’s 200-day MA) and PAAS (PPT: Sell) continue to be “accumulates” here, along with GDX (PPT: Buy),  all for the long term portfolios.

On the best PM on the radar right now, I’d look at RGLD (PPT: Sell), I think RGLD has finally recovered from it’s secondary sale, and will begin its run back to old highs this week.   Near term targets $41, $46 and $48, depending on how long you’d like to hold.    RGLD will be featured as a Jacksonian Core Holding stock, soon.    Stay tuned, bacon lovers, more pork products to come.


UPDATE:  Bot 2,000 more RGLD @ $37.52

UPDATE:  Bot 4,000 more ANV (PPT: Sell) @ $5.83-5.86

Caveat:  If you follow me into (more) Royal Gold or Allied Nevada, there’s a 73% chance your favorite son will be conscripted to guard Fort Knox for Derby Week.   You may also lose cash munny.


Further update:  Bot 4,000 sh starter position in Thompson Creek Metals (NYSE: TC) @ $6.06.  

Caution: very volatile.   If you purchase TC you will likely be struck by a meteorite made of pure molybdenum, and that might sting.  Also, you might lose money, quickly.


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PAAS — A Present from the Easter Bunny

This post was supposed to come out yesterday sometime, but I kept losing it to “failed saves,” so the following is a foreshortened version.  

While not yet at the level of a “Jacksonian Core Holding,”  Pan American Silver Corp. (NYSE: PAAS) is my only other silver miner holding besides Silver Wheaton (SLW), even though I believe silver (the metal) has better prospects than even gold right now.  Again, we go back to the overall crappy management of these names to explain my trepidation.  That doesn’t mean an HL or a CDE can’t become  a hot pick when these things really start to move in unison (which I think will happen by this summer).   I just don’t consider them holds for anything more than a swing trade.   PAAS, on the other hand, could see triple digits if the underlying metal takes off as I expect it will.

PAAS is still “baking” here, but I have been accumulating it since the $14’s.   You can see my near term targets on the following daily and  weekly charts, but let it be known I will be holding this one until my silver (and overall PM) thesis is disproven.   Any sales will be money management related only, and likely involve a covered call strategy like I discussed in my UPS post.

PAAS Daily Chart
PAAS Daily Chart


PAAS Weekly Chart
PAAS Weekly Chart


Obligatory Disclosure:  If you insist on pursuing a purchase of PAAS, it’s highly likely you will wake up one morning encased in a magenta Easter egg, Franz Kafka-style.    If that’s not warning enough, well — you may lose money, too.


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Jacksonian Core Holdings: Silver in a Storm

Hmmmm... what is this storm made of anyway?
Hmmmm... what is this "storm" made of anyway?

A reader asked me about Silver Wheaton (SLW) on the pull-back today, so I figured I’d take a second to show you why I like silver here for the “secular bear run.”   Let’s start out with an interesting chart  {$SILVER:$SPX}  which plots silver against the S&P 500 since the start of the dot-com meltdown:


  As you can see, silver has been on a bull run since about April of 2002, when it crossed over the 200-week moving average.  Even through the subsequent four year bull cycle of 2003-2007, it continued to outperform the S&P 500 on a trending basis.   What’s more, this ratio has never become oversold on an RSI basis (below 30), with only two trips in that period below 40.  The ratio is also showing a possible turn (vs. the $SPX) on the slow stochastic as well.  Silver is also cheap compared to gold, with gold currently priced at 73 times the price of silver (as of 3:00 today).  The traditional “classic” gold/silver ratio was that held from the 17th to the 19th centuries was 16 times, and in 1980 the ratio at their respective heights was about 17 x, when silver spiked to $48 an oz, and gold to $850.   Inflation adjusted, we’d need to get back to $129  and $2,200 an oz. respectively to re-acquire those heights.     At double the 16 ratio (ie, 32x), however silver would still trade at almost $28 an oz. even with gold remaining at it’s current price! 

Now to a silver mining stock dear to my heart.   Let’s face it, most publicly traded silver mining companies are run by inbred families of feuding Romanian dwarves more interested in “Friday Night Rasslin'” and trading silver shaving for Natural Light 30-packs than they are those boring “balance sheets” and “income statements.”     As a result most silver mining companies tend to frustrate investors even in good times for precious metals.   

Silver Wheaton is different.  It’s run by the same cockney Canuckistanian cads that brought us Wheaton River Gold, the successful gold startup that eventually took over Goldcorp (GG).    The Wheaton River Gold guys have done what they’ve said they’d do now for almost ten years running, which in precious metal mining circles is the equivalent of a weekend full of “36, Winnah!”s on the roulette wheel in Vegas.   It so much doesn’t happen that I’m researching the theory that they are in fact, Raelians sent to make those of us worthy enough (and who purchase the proper sneakers), rich.    Ack! Ack! Ack-Ack!

See the annotated chart below — where SLW has finally filled that gap that’s been driving me crazy for weeks:


CAUTION!  Investing in Precious metal miners is NOT for the faint of heart.    While I think that SLW and PAAS are two of the best out there, that’s like saying I find the Phillipino black mamba and the South Rhodesian Stuttering Asp  the most appealing of deadly poisonous snakes.  I recommend a basket of miners in both gold and silver, as well as a core position in SLV and GLD, and the “fizzical” metals themselves.   These are shelters in the storm, but they must also be watched.   Build positions judiciously, and sloooowly.   I will go over additional miners as we move forward with the Silver Surfer.   Best to you all.


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