Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

Gloria in Excelsis Jackson


Again, there’s no need for braggadocio.  It’s too early yet.

Let’s just recognize that there will be pullbacks, perhaps as soon as this week.   Those pullbacks may take the form of consolidations, or real live gut-rippers like we experienced in rocket ship IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] last Friday.   Take a look at my notes on the Jacksons for further guidance. 

Important to note, however, that we’ve broken out of the long term triangle on the $HUI, and out of the recent June highs, with a close over $409 on Friday.   Next targets are $475 and the old highs of $525.   I am firmly convinced we’ll see both those levels well before Christmas.  This should drive the Jacksons for the remainder of the year, and I think there’s ample room for continued participation here.

Remember this chart from a couple of days back? 


Well, look where we’ve come in two short weeks:


My favourite (sic) non-Jacksons include Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]]  and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] on the gold side and [[CDE]] and [[EXK]] on the silver.   I really like the free air on the CDE side.   It could go to the low forties with very little resistance now that it’s broken out of it’s May closing highs.

Here’s the weekly Jackson review… note the monthly is higher than the weekly in this first week of September, because August 31’st was such a down day for many Jacksons.

Name/     %   Portfolio Portfolio     
Ticker 28-Aug 4-Sep Change   Value Impact   Comments
ANDE  $        32.92  $      32.34 -1.76%    $             9,764 -0.10%   Still looking for the break of $33. Soon!
EGO            10.56          11.21 6.16%    $           10,504 0.39%   $11.50 is BTFO target
GDX            40.18          45.02 12.05%    $           13,626 0.98%   Look for pullback this week. BO>$45.25
GLD            93.87          97.53 3.90%    $           11,217 0.26%   Looking for $100.
IAG            12.02          13.84 15.14%    $           17,065 1.55%   In BTFO territory, and consolidating BO.
MON            83.00          82.24 -0.92%    $           13,047 -0.07%   Coiling on low volume
PAAS            19.99          22.45 12.31%    $           13,483 0.99%   BO out of triangle. Pullback level – 21.50
RGLD            39.95          45.98 15.09%    $           12,705 1.15%   Massive two day BO.  Next target $48.65
SLV            14.50          15.97 10.14%    $           12,973 0.79%   Broke weekly DT, over 15.75 resistance
SLW            10.45          11.59 10.91%    $           11,258 0.74%   Massive BO.  Next target $14.
SSRI            18.28          21.09 15.37%    $           12,269 1.13%   Needs $21.50 for BO level
TBT            46.74          47.70 2.05%    $             9,502 0.12%   Bounced from $45 low, now over $47.20 again
TC            11.98          11.89 -0.75%    $             9,787 -0.04%   May have bottomed at $11
TCK            25.20          24.36 -3.33%    $           23,505 -0.47%   May have bottomed at $22.05
Cash (000)  $        0.00  $    12.64 0.01%    $         12,644 0.00%   Same
AVG (weekly)   5.67%    $       193,350 7.41%    
AVG (monthly)   7.88%   Actual cash       
AVG (inception)   32.81%   on cash return 28.90%    

Best to you this week, and watch for pullbacks!


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The Good News — There Will Be Pullbacks


Listen, I just won’t do it.

I will not.

To boast and brag about the egregious Epic of Gilgamesh-like  wins over the last two days would be… well, it would be unseemly.

Instead, I’ll show why I think this is “something different”  than the last run up we had in late May/early June.   Take a look at this week’s “star” Jackson IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] :


Yeah, that’s a five-year chart.   And charts looking like this are all over the PM map this week, like drunks at a Calistoga wine tasting festival.  Breakouts on considerable volume.  And yes, there will be pull-backs.  

What’s more, there’ll be more to come.  Remember my $HUI chart from just this past Sunday’s post?   Well, circumstances have certainly accelerated, but it also looks like there’s a lot of room to run just to get back to the old highs…. viz:hui_weeklyiiKeep an eye on the Jacksons as we head into the meat of this breakout.   Besides IAG, there’s also Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , [[PAAS]]  , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]  and my favourite (sic) long term gold play Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] .   Also, as I expected, Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] had a nice rebound-breakout day today as well.

Non-Jacksons Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and [[EXK]] are long term favourites…. be well.


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What More Can I Do?


Wins abound so winningly today that even I — who have not been known for having problems with the art of braggadoccio — am having trouble incorporating them into a proper bombastic theme.

Perhaps I will just recite double digit-winship Jacksons I’ve pushed like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , [[PAAS]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] ?

No, perhaps I’ll be more reserved and only mention the Jacksons that were up over 9% today, like [[GDX]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] ?

Maybe I’ll “take a knee” and mention the Jackson– Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] — that was only up over 8% today?

No, no… humility demands I mention Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and [[TBT]] — but just don’t cry to me that I didn’t warn you about their risks. I still think TBT goes to $44.90 or so, but I think that’s also a nice place to purchase, fwiw.

As for other “down Jacksons” — Monsanto Company [[MON]] was off a touch, but I think The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] is ready to re-launch again, as early as tomorrow.

All in all today was an EPIC day.   Like freaking Gilgamesh or something.

Please keep in mind that my thesis is “this is only the beginning” on the PM side. So stock up. Don’t forget “non-Jackson” rec’s like Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] and let’s not forget NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] .

Stocks I don’t own, but am eyeing include Seabridge Gold, Inc. (USA) [[SA]] , [[LIHR]] and Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] .

Why meddle about with refiners and earl and even natural gas when the winnings are so laid out like a banquet? I know not.   Perhaps for masochism’s sake?

Best to you all.

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Bernanke is “the Man Behind the Curtain”


Just remember, all this bullcrap you are seeing today is about the dollar and it’s relationship with the rest of the world economy.   If it rallies hard here, it’s because the banks are throwing a scare into the Deflation-minded.   But if you have any questions about where the Fed is willing to go, please hit yourself on the head with a ball-peen hammer for “clarity’s sake” and consult this worthy chart once again (hat tip to DPeezy and ZH for posting yesterday).

If you are really confused, I would get thee to The PPT for a quick infusion of “brain trust.”   The wins in those fora lately have been breathtaking.  It just gets better every time I go in there. 

Back to the dollar rally — which I’m just not sure is for real, frankly.  In fact, it strikes me as more “seasonally oriented” than anything else.   You know — “September sucks, sell, sell?”   My opinion?  That bit of conventional wisdom and a box of Cracker Jacks will keep the monkeys at the Zoo from self-pleasuring, but it will get you little else in this Fed-governed market.   No, the Fed’s first job is to keep the banks liquid, credit spreads tight, and the FDIC afloat.   If you think they won’t sacrifice the dollar to those ends, then please repair back to the chart above for further ball peening.

Granted we are at a critical juncture, as you can see from the chart below.    We are right up against a long term down trend line (at about $23.45) on the [[UUP]] .  After that we have the near term 38.2% (strong) fib line at $23.57 and the 50 day EMA at $23.60.   I would tend think we have officially “bottomed” in the dollar for the near term if these prices are breached on volume.



Both the prices of gold and silver  are holding up here as well, which gives me some indication that if money is flowing back to the dollar, it’s not at the expense of the precious metals.   This should offer us some opportunity in our miners going forward, and even today.   The [[HUI]] is bouncing off it’s trendline as we speak.   Happy hunting.

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Just a Faithful Reminder… The “O.J.”


I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.
Thomas Jefferson, – “O.J.” — the Original Jackson (Attributed)
3rd president of US (1743 – 1826)


With this quote in mind, I want to again call to your attention that we are approaching the “August to Christmas” gold run, which generally includes a concurrent run in the gold and silver miners, as represented by the [[HUI]] index.   Almost every year in the oughts since 2000 has reflected this run, save of course last year, when we experienced a 28% loss due to a mass liquidation of all assets.

As reflected in the 2007 portion of the following chart, you can see the $HUI broke over 67% in the August to December period.   Note that a return to the old highs ($525) would only require a 44% run from these levels.


I believe we should see a relatively rapid progression when this thing gets moving — from $375 to the June highs (about $405) and then very possibly back to our pre-crash ’08 old highs in the $525 area.  That kind of progression in the $HUI should mean good things for all of our precious Jacksons, including Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ,IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , our leveraged royalty play in Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and our gold ETF [[GDX]] whose $34 strike options I purchased last week for September expiry.

A strong $HUI will mean even better things for the silver Jacksons, as the price of gold is still well over the historic 40x silver “norm” at nearly 65x today.   Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is my number one pick in this space, but  [[PAAS]] and even relative laggard Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] should be strong in this coming period.

As for non-Jacksons, I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] despite the recent dilution, and Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] and [[BAA]] all look good from the junior gold side, and of course [[EXK]]   and [[CDE]] on the silver side.   I will also throw Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] out as a possibility because it tends to jump in “hot” precious markets.   Be warned, however, this last is a “trade only” position, and not one to keep even one day past its expiration date. 

If you want to buy and hold, stick with the Jacksons and a well diversified pool of juniors… one or two of those will be “lotto tickets” and the rest will be largely crap, but you will be happy for the lotto wins nonetheless. 

No excuses, ladies and gents.  It’s “sarious” (sic) time.  See you at the finish line.

I know I haven’t given you a Jacksonian update in a while, so here’s last week’s results.  Note the bludgeoning in Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] due to the UBS (curse them) “bought deal” which means a “sold short” deal to those who are already holders.  No matter, once this overhead is sopped up, TC will move again, as will Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] .  Get these while they are cheap.

Name/     %   Portfolio Portfolio     
Ticker 21-Aug 28-Aug Change   Value Impact   Comments
ANDE  $        28.20  $      32.92 16.74%    $             9,940 1.00%   Big volume leap Friday. $33 is break.
EGO            11.02          10.56 -4.17%    $             9,895 -0.25%   Riding 20-day (10.49) on coil now.
GDX            39.30          40.18 2.24%    $           12,161 0.16%   Moving out of consolidation zone (>$40)
GLD            93.65          93.87 0.23%    $           10,796 0.02%   Coming out of coil as well, needs $95.50
IAG            11.93          12.02 0.75%    $           14,821 0.07%   Looks to test new highs (12.36+) this wk.
MON            83.78          83.00 -0.93%    $           13,168 -0.07%   Stuck between 20 and 200 day EMA’s.
PAAS            19.52          19.99 2.41%    $           12,006 0.17%   Breaking out of EMA coils (20/50/200)
RGLD            39.50          39.95 1.14%    $           11,039 0.08%   Closed above 200 day but lagging peers.
SLV            13.92          14.50 4.17%    $           11,779 0.29%   Nice leap on volume Friday, targ: $16.04
SLW              9.37          10.45 11.53%    $           10,150 0.70%   Nice move Friday, over $11 = free air.
SSRI            18.24          18.28 0.22%    $           10,634 0.01%   Still lagging all MA’s, and peers.
TBT            49.55          46.74 -5.67%    $             9,311 -0.32%   Broke below 38.2% fib @ 47.20, 44.90 target
TC            14.29          11.98 -16.17%    $             9,861 -0.96%   Massive dilution effect from secondary
TCK            26.73          25.20 -5.72%    $           24,315 -0.83%   RSI turning back up again, could be time.
Cash (000)  $        8.63  $    12.64 0.01%    $         12,644 0.00%   Added another $4k+ with final NRP sale
AVG (weekly)   0.40%    $       182,520 0.07%    
AVG (monthly)   9.91%   Actual cash       
AVG (inception)   25.14%   on cash return 21.68%    

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Get on this Beezy


Thanks for waiting the whole day. Turns out you didn’t miss much on my “super-secret” pick of Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] today, although you might have been able to buy it at the lows of $4.01 had I mentioned it first thing like I thought I would. But let’s be honest, how many of you would’ve grabbed your cups at that point and drank deep of this possibly downswirling poisonous homebuilder??

That’s right, none o’ ya. Besides, I bot it at $4.21 near yesterday’s close (when I announced it on The PPT — are you subscribing yet??), so I don’t feel bad about letting you in on it at right around the same price.

Why Beezy? I have no idea, I guess the Inflation Gods are moving into even the crappy homebuilder space. The only thing I know is the charts are showing compelling interest and very close to “BTFO” levels at today’s close. Please to enjoy the following picture show… first the weekly for the price and volume overview:


Then the Daily to show the turtle head that caused me to take my “starter position” at $4.21


On top of this new pick, the Jacksons are starting to make noise again, with Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] making nice moves today.   Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] continues to be punished for the sin of issuing capital to Canuckistanian Securities Firms, may God curse their Yukon Cornelius beards to immediate dreadlocked disarray.    Soon, I will be forced to buy a tonne (sic) more.   We shall see.

My [[GDX]] call play is beginning to look nice as well, and I believe all will  be well with us if [[UUP]] continues to stay below $23.30.

Best to you all.



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