Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

Is there a Doctor in the House?

Sorry, I gotta make this one short and sweet.  I got a barfing three year old on my hands.   They don’t like to accomodate you at that age, if you’re familiar, so I have to play “moving target” ovah heah.

Anyway, the Jacksons didn’t do much today, and you can see my comments below.  The two big movers were [[TC]] — which is just a Godzillian monster ripping down ricepaper buildings in Tokyo — busted right past my 61.8% long term fib line today and proceeded to keep going.   I wanted to sell the calls only to find  — to my deep chagrin and embarassment — there were none.   So I sold one third of my position, as reported, at $11.21.   I guess we’ll find out very soon if that was a bad move, but considering I had gotten those shares in the low sixes, I could not complain.  

[[TBT]] is the other marching gorilla, responding to all kinds of distress out there in Ten Year Bond land.   Well, I just don’t think we’re going to crack 4% on the first attempt here, auction or not.   I just think that’s too easy.   I will likely sell the calls again tomorrow on any further march to $60, keeping in mind we may have seen the high water mark this afternoon at $59.79.

Only [[PAAS]] was over 2% for the rest of the Jackson’s and only [[ANDE]] — which needed a rest — was down more than 2%… so, a blah day.

I will caution you to watch the PM’s tomorrow however, as I got the feeling that this current consolidation may be coming to an end, one way or the other.  Stay alert.

On non Jacksons [[ENTR]] finally broke out a bit and [[ANV]] showed nice relative strength considering the paucity of movement in the rest of the gold sector.  That may be one to own when we start moving again.   

That’s all for now, save the list.   Be well everybody, and watch the puke flu.


{I know I keep fiddling with the format of this performance chart, but please let me know if you like this latest idea of putting the prior day’s post in for comparison’s sake.}

Name 9-Jun 10-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 31.30  $    30.48 -2.62%   Still on the trendline.
EGO       9.21          9.13 -0.87%   Would like to see it kiss the st trend line @ $8.90
GDX     41.09        40.80 -0.71%   Hanging on 61.8% long term fib.  Added 1k today @$40.88
GLD     93.83        93.86 0.03%   POG down about $2.  Waiting.
IAG     10.17        10.21 0.39%   Holding pattern.
MON     85.07        85.85 0.92%   Dropped and recovered nicely all afternoon.
NRP     24.11        24.01 -0.41%   Looking for a breakout above $24.60 to “prove”
PAAS     21.71        22.15 2.03%   Looking to get over $22.30 in the morning.
RGLD     44.37        43.90 -1.06%   Touched the trendline as expected, should go north from here.
SLV     15.03        15.01 -0.13%   PO Silver down a mere 8 cent.
SLW     10.29        10.18 -1.07%   Will it get to the trendline @ $9.90?  
SSRI     22.59        22.75 0.71%   Making a move for the top of the cup again.
TBT     57.22        58.77 2.71%   Missed $60 by fitty cent.  Waiting for auction to sell calls.
TC     10.58        11.32 6.99%   Just a freaking monster.  Took 1/3 off @ $11.21. Mistake?
TSO     15.51        15.35 -1.03%   Needs to show me something here, or buh-bye.
AVG     0.39%    

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Down is UUP And UUP is Down


UUP is our proxy for the dollar as you recall.   It’s right at make or break here hanging about it’s 61.8% retrace.  Now, on my other graphing software, the 61.8% — Golden Ratio — retrace line is at $24.07.   No matter, we want this sucker below $24 to feel good about the dollar not threatening this rally again.  

Good thing we are in PM’s and heavy metals as they are negotiating this squall just fine today.   On the gold side, [[ANV]] continues to show real nice relative strength, to the point where its making me wonder if there’s not something going on.   [[PAAS]] and [[PTM]] are doing well as well, and you may want to have a sally at [[NG]] as it’s getting bootstomped for no particular reason while [[NXG]] is up.  Perhaps it’s the “X” chromasone?

I like [[TIE]]  and [[TC]] is just insane.  I may sell the calls after this posting, in fact.   In the meantime, the golds and silvers are hanging tough, and [[TBT]] is right at my intermediate sell level (high of about 59.50 today).   I may sell the calls on that one as well, depending on what the dollar does to the close.

On other crazy stuff, [[ENTR]] is finally breaking out, while the [[HEB]] takes it in the shorts.   Watch that one, along with [[IMGN]] as I think they’ll both “be baaahhk” like Arnold.   Another Fly buy is [[OVTI]] which I’ve had for a while now, and is finally perking.

Queries welcome.

Here’s a great theme for today.   Whether we’re talking the dollar or the market, you gotta love this humble boy from Northern Florida.  Fantastic rendition, too, the way he gets the blase LA crowd to sing the whole first verse (Hat tip to Boomer):

Update:  Funkier version from Hamburg, sorry about the “non-embed” you can see that one on Youtube.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiztRc910Ps 450 300]


 Update:  Sorry, no calls to sell on TC!  Therefore I am selling one third of my position here at $11.21.   I am risking that I won’t get the better price to reload.

Update: Bot 1k more [[GDX]] @ $40.88 for shizzles and gizzles.  Hanging on the 61.8% fib.

Update:  Re: [[UUP]]– she ended up at $24.00 on the dot.  Isn’t that just like a woman?


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PPT-Gary, PPT-Ross (David Mamet Guest Blogging)

(Lights up,  Joe Mantegna on a straight wooden chair, simple table, lone ash tray and lighter on top) (Single spot on Joe)

(lighting Marlboro Red)  Look.   Look here.   Look, I will tell you what.  I will tell you this.  This is what I will say.  

These PPT guys.  These guys.   These PPT guys.  (inhale, hold)

What?  There are women too, yes.   (exhale) Yes.  Women and guys.  PPT guys and women.

This is what  I will say:  These PPT  guys can pick some stocks.  Some fucking stocks.  You would not…  No you would NOT.   I assure you, you would not.  There is no way you would.

What?  What?  NO!  I cannot…. I can NOT.  No, I canNOT.   I cannot give you that information.  About the stocks.  About the picks.

(getting animated)

You see, these picks.    The PPT picks.   The PPT picks are for closers.    Closers.  These PPT guys?  They are always closing.  They are always winning.   They are… how can I describe it? How can I describe it to you?  (checks watch)

Okay, okay.   Hold on.   Hold on  a minute.  (drag on cigarette) Hold on.  I will tell you.  (Exhale)

There is a guy there.   His name is “I-Win.”  I shit you not.  His name is “I Win.”   Can I be clearer?  Hello?  Hello?  The man’s name is “I win.”

He has a cat.  What?  A cat, yes, but that…  But that is not important.   Let me tell you, that is not important.  What is important is this:

I Win does two things.   He closes, and he wins.   He wins and he closes.  It’s simple.  It’s magic.   It’s simple magic.  His name… the man’s NAME is“I Win.”  He wins.  Am I clear? 

(drags on cigarette, holds)(pause) (exhales)

Sometimes, even… sometimes,  I win too, when I Win wins! (animated)   Other people win too!  Would I shit you?   Would I?   I would not.   I would not shit you.

No.  Stop.  Full stop.  STOP.  STOP.  This is wrong.  This is all wrong.  This is wrong.   (Pause) Let me… no, stop.   (Pause) Let me start again.   (glances at watch)

(Ten beats)

Have you spoken to the Fly?  (pause to look at audience, make eye contact)

I asked if you have spoken to the Fly?   The Fly, he is the one.  The one to tell you.   He will tell you.   Why would he not tell you?  He would tell you. 

He will tell you the same thing.  Hell, anyone would tell you who has seen it.   Anyone who has seen it.  Not just the Fly.  Anyone.  Anyone would.

Do you think I would not tell you?  I would.   I am.  I mean I am telling you.   I have seen it.  We have seen it.  They have all seen it.    (Pause)

It is extraordinary.   (pause)

“Extraordinary,” yes I said that.   But they all say that.   “Extra-ordinary.”  Like that.  Say it like thatSay it.  No – You say it. (pause)

You need… to ask…. the Fly.  He.  Will.  Tell.  You.    He will tell you about the picks.   The PPT picks.   He will tell you about the PPT picks

(One last look at watch).   Okay.  Okay.  (pause)

Okay, here is one, here is one.  Here is one.   One.  SQNM.  [[SQNM]] is one. 

Do not ask for more.   Do not.   Do not ask.

(lights dim, stabbing out cigarette in ashtray, fade to black) (/scene)


Name 9-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $     31.30 7.49%   Another monster day, headed for $33 (61.8% fib)
EGO           9.21 -0.65%   Rasslin’ between $8.87 and $9.33.
GDX         41.09 -0.51%   Still consolidating last week’s moves.
GLD         93.83 0.29%   POG up again, too.
IAG         10.17 -0.39%   Still meandering.
MON         85.07 2.75%   Big move day, filled gap, sold half my calls from $78
NRP         24.11 0.75%   Looking for a breakout above $24.60 to “prove”
PAAS         21.71 0.98%   Still mopey, could see 21-ish again.  Resting.
RGLD         44.37 0.61%   Could see another touch of the trend line (43.15)
SLV         15.03 1.83%   PO Silver up over 2% as well
SLW         10.29 1.08%   Could easily see $9.80 again. Opportunity there.
SSRI         22.59 2.08%   Still in bullish wedge (down) could see $20.30
TBT         57.22 -0.12%   Completing a coil of beauty, still headed to $60
TC         10.58 8.62%   Could get to 10.96 tomorrow.  Strong like bool.
TSO         15.51 -1.08%   Very close to being canned.   Cannot recommend.
AVG   1.58%    

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Mr. Anderson With A Bullet

Stick with a winner,  “they” say — and Mr. Anderson [[ANDE]] keeps winning, up about 5% again today at $30.55.    As I mentioned, my medium term target for Mr. A is right at the 61.8% long term fib, or $33.00

The other Jacksons are back on the winning track too, with [[MON]] looking like it really does want to fill that gap at $85.20 (currently at $84.88) from the other day.   That’s probably where I will unload my MONGOLs unless I see some major promise in the very near term from MON.   Of course I will continue with my stock position.

[[TC]] is also rocketing again, up almost 7% as I type.  [[TIE]] is also moving on low volume, but is breaking into some new territory here, over $10.85.

Two others I have been holding for a while that are getting some action today are [[AMKR]] and [[SIFY]].   If SIFY is really taking off here, it’s brother in sub-continent, if nothing else, [[SONS]] may get a rise as well.    Good luck to all.


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Friends Don’t Let Friends Score FAZ

Sometimes it’s not about the money, it’s about the high.  The high you get from being right when everyone else (or most everyone) is wrong.   Let me tell you it can be a heady thrill,  as good or better than any triumphs on the athletic or academic plain.

But I implore you to forswear this high.   Do it today.   For it will turn you into a ravening frog-eyed hermit, cursing the clouds and the crowds for not bending to your superior will and your knowing…. your knowing.

This is a game of accepting defeat after all, shaking the Fly’s hand in a firm, but gentlemanly fashion and then moving on.  It’s  not a game of self incineration.   We must keep foremost in mind that a mass of blackened carbon cannot sally forth ever again.   He can only sit, and smolder and fume and smoke…. 

And curse his fate…

On alternating Mondays.


   It looks like no one will be able to keep these commodities down for very long.   Is it the dollar?  Is it our interest rates?  Looming inflation?   I don’t know.   “KISS” — not the rock group but the acronym — instructs me to “K-eep I-t S-imple, S-tupid,” and so I will.

Just follow the trend til it ends.   

Is that instruction really that tough to follow?   Yes, the Devil Dog is in the details, but then you’ve many friends here (and on The PPT) with whom to consult.   We shall not leave your side despite your sweaty palms and mild B.O..      The bio-techs are still working.  Don’t ask me why, I blame CA  for starting the conversation with a grainy haus frau in a smoke-filled bar in Washington Heights three weeks ago.

You know how the flutter of the butterflies wings in a crowded tavern leads to hurricanoes in the porcelain room?     I like [[HEB]]-rews here, and First Phillip-ians [[MO]].    Another stealthy bio-tech I’ve been mentioning is [[SVA]] which had another solid day.  Last [[BIOS]] could take off at any time.    Or not.  I like it in the low 4’s.

As well, the commodites are working their tiny little mono-muscles .   General Jackson’s [[TC]] rebounded with great vigour (sic) and newly acquired [[TIE]] (non-Jackson) looks good too.  Even the PM’swere not pulling back with the vigour I expected from this mornings sad state of affairs.  My goodness, the worst hit Jacksonian was our highest flyer thus far, Mr. Anderson [[ANDE]], down a little over 3%.    By the way, if he could see his way to $28.40 tomorrow, or close thereby, he would offer an excellent entry for all those seeking his agrarian charms.  

Let’s look at the rest of the Jacksonian Core Holdings list, with attendant commentary:

Name 8-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 29.12 -3.09%   Finally backing off a hot run. $28.40 entry.
EGO       9.27 0.32%   Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
GDX     41.30 -0.07%   Got our $40 target and bounced at support.
GLD     93.56 -0.16%   Hung on 20-day and 78% long term fib.
IAG     10.21 1.49%   Beautiful hammer off support, could be ready again
MON     82.79 0.99%   Still battling.
NRP     23.93 -2.33%   Still struggling with that $24 line.
PAAS     21.50 -2.63%   Another long tail doji, good EOD volume.
RGLD     44.10 0.05%   Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SLV     14.76 -1.67%   Tested $14.50 early, then up the rest of the day.
SLW     10.18 -1.83%   Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SSRI     22.13 -1.03%   Yet another hammer doji, this time on the 38% fib.
TBT     57.29 0.61%   $60 next stop.
TC       9.74 -1.81%   $10.96 near term target.  Another hammer doji.
TSO     15.68 0.77%   Wretched, but alive for today.
AVG   -0.69%    

Let’s hang together shall we?   I’d rather not hang separately.


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3 O’Clock Rock

The market is meandering all day, so I’ve been out eating samitches (sic) and picking mushrooms.    Looks like our precious metal pullback is continuing as expected.    I hope you are taking your time, but picking up some of the Jacksons you have perhaps neglected in weeks passed. 

[[SLW]] in particular looks tasty here, having filled that gap and then some at $10.04.  It’s now proceeding to fill the gap it created this morning at $10.29.   Someday, you will revel in these prices.

From the picks I went over on the weekend, you’ve had opportunities to buy all of them cheaper than Friday’s close, but most have gained back a lot of what they lost this morning (recognizing that [[ARTC]] hadn’t lost anything).    [[TIE]] continues to look like it wants more here, as does Fly’s favorite [[TRID]].

I really hope you took care of the “Devil Dawg Special” in [[SPAR]] this morning, as that perfect contra-indicator gave it his very special “Great Short” blessing, ensuring that it will continue making your grandchildren millions even when you are moldering in your platinum encrusted marble and jade pineapple coffin.

Seriously, it’s not often one gets blessed with a “reverse Devil Dawg.”  Don’t let this opportunity pass you by unattended.

Disclosure:  I bot 1000 shs [[SPAR]] @ $10.07.   Don’t cry to me, you could have gotten it in the nines! 

Targets for some PM’s?  — I’d love to get more [[AGQ]] @ $47.70

More [[EXK]] @ $1.75

More [[NG]] @ 4.75m

More [[GG]] @ $34.35

More [[SSRI]] @ $20.50 (back up the freaking truck)

More [[RGLD]] @ $43.10 (see above)

More to come later, but CAVEAT:  if you join my purchases at the above prices, above shown Devil Dawg will come to your house and give you all of his kibbles and bits.   And you may lose money.

Best to you all.


Update: I forgot to add that biotech jumping bean fizzing hand grenade [[HEB]] is looking like it might be on the comeback trail again, ovah heah.  Proceed with extreme caution.

Update: Bot 2,000 TIE @ $10.75.

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