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I’ve been abominably busy and there’s just no accounting for it. You’ll just have to put up with my ghostlike presence as I H.A.L.O.-parachute in with various recs from the troposphere.

The good news is, nothing is going on that hasn’t been anticipated for some time. You might be at the opera, you might be at the symphony, you might simply be out at the soda jerk’s enjoying a nice sasparilla with your best girl, Friday, but you haven’t missed a thing.

You’re right in the middle of it, so it’s time to lay down your knitting needles and Persian cat, and lookee here at these six charts of wonder. They are all in the weekly format, so you know there’s “no bullshit” gumming anything up, making you lose your nerve.

If I’m you, I’m relaxing right here. I’m not you, and I can’t relax due to my manic tendencies, but don’t feel bad, it keeps my weight down in the winter. I’m relaxing and I’m letting the market come to me. If I’m you, I mean. “Come to me” is code for “wait for the 13-week EMA touch” — especially on these balenes of beauty.

First two LED stocks. “WTF!?” you say to yourself.

WTF, indeud. Come on ovah heah and check out “Elvis” the King — Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] first. Behold!

And his LED brother, from Ghostbusters II — Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]]– almost as purty !

Now those are some pretty formations, no?  Can you say “simpleton easy?”   Good, good.   Now look at my other friends.  My favorite goldie Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] is first:

And who could forget my enormous EGO—  Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ?   Another weekly wonder:

One more golden gate to my heart, is the appropriately named IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] :

And last but not least, the “Stock of the Year” –Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] —  a silver stallion that will outlast them all:

Repair more to your weekly charts for comfort, my droogs.   Remember “13-week EMA” on these high fliers, and let not the shadow of Zul darken your hearts.

Quanza.

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Exchanging the Secret Handshake
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The guy on the right in the picture above is counting on the stupidity of his majority peasant populace to pull off one of the grandest day-time thefts in recent years — the 50% devaluation of his country’s currency by fiat Executive declaration. Like the crazed-with-power dictator in Woody Allen’s classic comedy Bananas who declared “All children… under the age of 16 years old.. are now…. 16 years old,” El Pizza Face above is “declaring” that every unit of currency (the “bolivar“) is worth one half of what it was worth yesterday… just “because.”   

What’s even funnier is he’s now saying that retailers cannot raise prices in response to this devaluation, upon pain of seizure.  How long do you think retail businesses can stay open charging 50% under cost of goods?   One wonders also how long even the economically illiterate majority of Venezuela will stand for such blatent skulduggery?   I’m guessing for about as long as the food stores hold out.

Meanwhile back here in this country, we’ve got that pesky Constitution getting in the way of any similar grand plans to immediately double the money supply.   But our leaders want to get in on the free-gov’t-money-for-votes-racket too,  so they’ve got to come up with more creative methodologies.  

Luckily, they’ve got a compliant Federal Reserve whose number one priority is saving themselves and the badly damaged fractional reserve banking system.   That means the Fed’s alleged “guiding missions” of maintaining low inflation and a high rate of employment take a back seat to the Darwinian imperative — “survival at all costs.”   This is good news for the dear leaders in Congress and the White House.

What’s more, our leaders have got the rest of the world using our currency as reserves.   That means, for this brief shining moment in history, our leaders can do what Hugo Chavez only wishes he could do — print fresh new bails of cash via deficit financing with little to no apparent consequence to our national economic status.

For now. 

But Mother Economics is even more of a caustic wit than Mother Nature, and much like these soi-disant world governors who are being served flaming slices of “Humble Baked Alaska” with these record-breaking cold temperatures, so too will our Congressional and Fed Capos reap multiple facial hatchetings to their long beards for this extended abuse of global trust.   The dollar may not halve in value over night like the Meatball’s Bolivar did, but it’s breaking down all the same.  

Today’s action has us back in the congestion zone again, which is a sticky swamp as of late.   This means good news for commodities and other real things as the clarion bell of inflation is being rung once again.   Answering the call is your one and only “Stock of the Year” pick Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , now clearly BTFO’ing to new 52-week highs.   I like it on a pullback, as it has a reputation for filling gaps.

While [[GLD]] is moving up in a stately patrician manner, [[SLV]] and its turbocharged brother  [[AGQ]] are playing catch-up, and will likely out-perform in the near term.   Same holds true for the other precious non-gold varietals like [[PTM]] and the two platinum-palladium miners [[PAL]] (which is a rocket ship headed to the sun, Icharus-style) and Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] .

Don’t forget all the junior burritos I’ve given you in the past.   Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] head the list, but the “Nth Factor” — NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] are roaring too, along with Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] and many others.   

If I had to pick another “launch to the sun” like Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] I think it would probably be [[EXK]] .   It reminds me of SLW in the old days.     Hold on to your capital people, they will try to appropriate it in multiple fashions going forward.  

Best to you all.

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Note: I am reposting my “market predictions” from the recent iBC piece we .pdf’d because I want to be able to keep track of some of these picks I’ve mentioned, especially the natural gas and water choices… For my non-market prediction  you will have to refer back to the original document.

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In the year 2010, much CHANGE will come unto the land, and we HOPE it’s change we can believe in (for a change).

Markets Wise, here are my 2010 predictions:

Reversing the traditional “January Effect,”  the market will pull back some 7 to 14% in the next month, with the techs leading the way and taking the rest of the market with them once they break down — much like the [[QQQQ]] took the rest of the market up on the recent breakout. 

The [[SPY]] and [[IWM]] (Russell 2K)  will follow soon thereafter, along with good old [[DIA]] .   Then I expect the market will rezoom (sic) it’s move to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retrace that it’s been pointing toward since the March ’09 lows.   That should be about $1,230 or so on the $SPX.

Accompanying this retrace move will be the US dollar getting to at least $80 (on the [[DXY]] ) and [[UUP]] our trusty ETF companion,  back to resistance in the $24.05 region.    The breakdown from these levels should signal to us it will be time to “Party-on Garth” or similar 80’s era SNL spin-off movie platitude.

The first friends to recover from the coming breather will be our trusty commodities, in the form of gold, silver, platinum, molybdenum, natural gas, and even coal.   Oil will trail and probably rise with these sundry boats, but I’d wait on it for the rest of the market.   As usual, the Jacksons will take the fore, with Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] ($12.50) , [[GDX]] ($42), Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] ($43), Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ($12.40), IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] ($13.50) and honorary Jackson Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] ($12.50) continuing their winning ways in 2010, and non-PM Jacksons Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] ($11) and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] ($34).    

I even give former Jackson plodder  Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] ($23.25) a shot in 2010, as it will rise with the coal stocks.  That said, I like Massey Energy Company [[MEE]] ($34-35) and Patriot Coal Corporation [[PCX]] ($13.50-14.00) better for that play.

Shocker, right?   Well how about some natural gas picks as well, as I think that sector will also finally run in 2010, mostly on a mean reversion basis.   None of this Chinese stuff, though.   I think the Chinese will be using all that coal they’ve dug before the natty.  No, I like good old ‘Murican gas, in the forms of my old favorite Chesapeake Energy Corporation [[CHK]] ($24.75), NGAS Resources, Inc. [[NGAS]] ($1.65) for a crazy Lotto play and Northwest Natural Gas [[NWN]] ($45)  for the “safe utility play.”

Last but not least on my commodity list is the water companies, which I think will also have some mojo in a commodity constrained shrinking dollar environment.  There’s been quite a bit of consolidation in the water names, but most of the business remains in public utilities.  I think that will change as municipalities feel the bite of lessened garbagio fines and other taxable nuisance fees to pay their egregious unionized work forces a “living wage” (Chicago Speak for $142k a year, pension and health bennies).   Municipalities will be looking to offload capital constrained public water assets and these companies will grow.  

There’s none I like better than fat, liquid (no pun intended) American Water Works Co., Inc. [[AWK]] ($21.50) and not simply for it’s “Men from Mars” ticker symbol.  I think these guys are the gorilla and one to put away for the long haul.   There will be more water companies coming public, God willing, and their M&A actions in this market will bring recognition to these names and the value of water assets in the next ten years.  I also like California Water Service Group [[CWT]] ($35.50), Aqua America, Inc. [[WTR]] ($15.50) and the risky desalineation play Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. [[CWCO]] ($13.20).  

Crazy tech plays you can get from Mssr. LeFly, but I like [[BIOS]] here on a pullback to $8.00.  I think once it gets past it’s old highs of $9.82, it’s off to the races.   I also like Fly’s Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] on a pullback to the $69 range.

Last but not least, I think you need to have some [[TBT]] ($49) in the portfolio.   We’ve many deficits to finance before we’re done in 2010 (as much as $1.5 trillion) , and over $2 trillion in short term debt to refinance.   I just don’t know how they do that without further pounding the dollar, and putting pressure on interest rates.   I like TBT as a hedge and as a long term play, deep into the middle of this coming decade.

2010 is an election year, so I think the pols will try to make it look good at least until November.   That means we will get favorable news on tax increases, despite the clamour (sic) of the socialist bodkins on the far Left of the Democrat Party.   That’s another reason why I strongly beleive Benjamin- printing will continue into 2011 and on.

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[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMjAf8Nwohs 450 300]

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No, I’m not speaking of Mssr. Le Fly counting his Broken Robot Coin in his Counting House, whilst tossing flaming egg-nogs at his trader servant, Mssr. Le Cratchet.

I’m talking about the classic The Year Without  A Santa Claus double production numbers from those brothers of Sun and Snow, the Heat and Cold Misers.

This piece is actually a cover by Big Bad Voodoo Daddy (an RC favourite, no doubt).   While I prefer Dick Shawn’s Snow Miser in the original version, I have to give the overall production medal to BBVD, as they are large, bad, magical, and also your father.    Besides, Heat Miser is a mite too drag queenish in the original…

As I suspected, after a month’s worth of work,  the market [[SPX]] tipped over the 50% fibonacci line today at $1121.50 or so, and is now seemingly out of the box like a busted robot and headed to $1227, where awaits our Golden Ratio of 61.8%.   As I’ve mentioned, I think we will eventually get there, but not before a pullback, which could be quite gland-challenging.  

With [[TBT]] breaking out quite convincingly here, equities have been put on watch that their discount rates will continue to increase.   As well,  the dollar pullback, as shown by DXY and [[UUP]] today has also been de minimus.    Maybe all the rules of finance will continue to be suspended in honor of Santa and Rudolph, but I wouldn’t bet my Christmas gelt on it.   

That’s why I haven’t yet jumped in the molten gold pool yet, either, as appetizing as Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] are looking today.   I could be wrong, but I don’t think the dollar is done shagging with us yet.   No real worries, though, my Pagans.   Santa Ben will soon take up his ink stamping device and all fans of the continued mass portraiture of the Inventor of Electricity will be appeased.

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May all your families have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, even if it may be Pagan, or whatever.   It’s all about the kids, and what you make of them in the end, anyway.  

Best to you all, and thanks for your well wishes and support in 2009.

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Bonus Clip, Humour Division:

[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6yUCbqAGrg 450 300]             

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The Once and Future Gold Standard?
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Some quick notes on direction…

Despite the imprecations of some, this is wholly and incontrovertibly a dollar-dependent market.   Wither the dollar, there goeth the market.   Your bombastic arguments may be amusing, but the Santa Gods only chuckle when you laud “progress” and “economic viability” like some kind of Parallel Universe Bizarro Karl Denninger.

(Slap! Slap! Slap! Slappity-Slap!)  Get serious, at once!  

 This market is riding a giant tsunami of Bernanke dinero and that’s why it’s been going up like a drunk clown in a circus dirigible.   But it looks like Benny’s press machines are getting a rest, ovah heah.   Or maybe it’s just that the rest of the world’s craptastic fiat currencies need a chance to catch up.   In any case, the dollar is back above it’s 50-day EMA:

I think it’s very likely we could see the dollar rebound all the way to its 200-day moving average (between $79-$80) before it turns once again like a wounded albatross and heads for the longer term lows in the $71 range.

As for our friend Baby [[HUI]] , I mentioned the other day that on Wednesday last week it came within $3 of it’s old highs from March of 2008 ($519.68).   That $516.16 high marked the top, however, and we’ve quickly sold down since then to close today at $461.19 — a $55 dollar move in 5 days of trading.   

If the stock market is sensitive to the dollar, then the gold miner market is even more so.   That’s why I think that Baby $HUI has got some more work to do here.   Here are my targets: 

Do I think the 61.8% fib  (@ $378) is also in play?   You bet your sweet bippy, Grandmaw.  Verily, I think the move down here is going to be somewhat soul-crushing, and I think the miners may feel the worst of it.   I bot some more SPY puts ($110’s again) and now my stash stands at 250 contracts, with a number more of sold calls in United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] . Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] .

But the bull is not over, make no mistake.  So bide your time wisely, here, and keep your wallet hand loose and well manicured as you get ready for the next swing. 

That is all, save for my final admonition about the foolishness of your not yet becoming a member of the Trading Hive Mind in The PPT.   What gives?  Don’t you like money?

Spock out.

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Swisher Sweets are Smoo-o-o-o-ooth.
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I’d walk a mile… for a Camel… (and to buy that last piece of that January [[SPY]] put position– 50 more @ $2.89-2.92.)

Bryl-Creem, a little dab’ll do ya…. (just like a concentrated position in sold calls and targetted puts will “smooth out” the rough spots in a downdraft).

Winston Tastes Good, like a cigarette should… (so do 20 more [[GDX]] March 50 calls sold at $8.00 a pop.)

Rice-a-Roni, the San Francisco Treat…  (not unlike [[PTM]] , which has stayed strong — and unsold– while it’s brother PM’s have sweated.  That may change tomorrow, as I may take a third off, despite my lack of a full position as of yet.)

N-E-S-T-L-E-S, Nestles make the very best… (chocolate, maybe but not market hedges.  I expect we’ll have a bit of a global pullback, so even the traditonal consumer product hedges may be of little use.   Note that Brazil took a dive today from [[EWZ]] ‘s tops over $80.   A little [[EEV]] may be a choice smoothner her for a week or so.)

The best part of waking up, is Folger’s in your cup… (but maybe not Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] if it breaks through this near term support at $60, right here.  Next very strong support is $55, which I would consider “back up the truck territory,” on a bounce.)

Best of all, it’s a Cadillac… (but not if you’re a GM shareholder, Ford Motor Company [[F]] is actually looking good here on a pullback to $8.50.  I’m sure Mr. Cane Thaler is well pleased)….

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Feel free to add some favourite (sic) advertising slogan-themed picks of your own.   I’m off to dinner at a fantastic local restaurant.  Ciao.

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