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SuperNova Gold

Adding to my [[NG]] horde here, with an additional 4k @ $4.94.  I like how it came back down and filled this morning’s gap and then proceeded to power on.    I think the junior miners may point us the way out of this recent pullback, so I will be keeping a close on them for all of us.

Note that recent Tim Knight short [[GLD]] also need to fill this morning’s gap at around $91.24.   A fill and bounce here would be very encouraging.  

Silver is also showing signs of an “inside day” candle formation , which would be good news for a possible end to this recent pullback as well.   As predicted, the $HUI is bouncing today, up about $2, off the trend line and the short term 50% retracement line.

All of these point to signs of a respite, as the dollar is off a bit as well.    Let’s be cautious, but judicious in our picks here.

Caveat: If you follow me into NG, your favorite poodle may be accidentally pepper sprayed in a police dog obedience class gone disasterously wrong.  And you may lose principle.

Update:   Even though I’m officially “full up” in the position, I just added another 2k of SLW at the lucky number of $8.88.   Serious (38.2%) fibonacci line here if it holds.    Thanks to whomever gave us the phrase “moth hands.”

Update:   New pick, bordered on the verge of Jacksonian, but too much geography risk, being located in South Africa with it’s “sorta” stable government and kooky neighbors.  Gold Fields International — [[GFI]].   Just bounced off it’s TEN YEAR 61.8% fibonacci retrace at $11.42 this morning.   That’s like a signal from above.   “Starter” position of 2k shares @ $11.67.

 

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Gold for Your Ice Cream Cone

Mmmmmmmmmm….. Deeee-licious!

Looks like our friend “Baby $HUI” — the Amex Gold Bugs Index is just about to pull back to our second line of resistance that I’d plotted out some week and a half back.   If you recall, the chart looked like this:

hui_dailyiii2

In the above, we’d hit that magic $400 barrier and come back already to our first point of resistance.  Well, as of late last week, we’ve come very close to that second line and will likely hit it sometime today (Update: We’ve hit it and then some at $341– next stop could be our 13 week MA at $337.30).   Therefore, I think we need to keep our eyes open for a bounce here at least back to that first resistance level at $375.    Here’s where we are today:

hui_daily

Because of the relative strength of this sector, I think it will continue to lead, and show it’s bull head before the rest of the market does (if in fact the rest of the market continues with its bullish ways).   Short synopsis, this is your only confirmed bull in the market right now, with most names riding above their 200-day MA’s.   Therefore, this is where you want to play for fun and profit, no matter with what specie you purchase your ice cream cones.

There are a couple of POS miners that have yet to truly participate in this rally, and that may be because they are POS, so take this next chart with a kiloton of salt.   It’s the old dog, [[CDE]], which has dropped back down to attractive levels again, and is down over 5% as I type this.  Keep a tight stop here, but I continue to think this old hag still has a chance to come close to her 200 day MA at close to $30 here.  Here’s her weekly:

cdeweek2

One last note — be cautioned as [[UUP]] is back above it’s 61.8% fibonacci line of $24.06 as of about 9:40 am this morning, which could spell at least temporary trouble for the markets in general.   In the case of this PM bull, I believe it smells of  opportunity.  Best to you all.

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UpdateBarron’s weekend pick  and Jakepick (non-Jacksonian) [[NG]] showing her mettle, up almost 8% in a down market.  I own shares, but will likely add to weaker names.  [[RBY]] in particular looks good here.  Word on the PPT is that it’s a possible [[GG]] takeover.

Update: @ 1:57 pm, $HUI is right on the trendline right now at 334, give or take.   If UUP folds over, this could be an excellent purchasing opportunity.  Keep a gimlet eye!

Update:  Bot 1k more [[AGQ]] @ $44.01.

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What of the Rule of Law?

 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZ3BXixtahg 450 300]

Some weeks back, before the auto industry bankruptcies were effected, an observer objected to Alpha Dawg’s depiction of the Obama Adminstration’s handling of the Chrysler bankruptcy as “fast and loose” with our traditional respect for the rule of law.   The Obama defender said that it was not true that the Administration sought to circumvent traditional protections for senior creditors that have been laid out in corporate law since the beginnings of the industrial age, and that such machinations would not occur.

Well now we know different, and it appears that members within the Administration (as well as certain key Congressional members) have taken it upon themselves to re-order our formal capital infrastructure along lines that are, at least in the short term, more politically expedient for them and their key constituencies in Labor and the Environmental Left. 

The question arises as a matter of linear reasoning — for how long will our “best system” survive such repeated violations of the ground rules?   As with the examples of the ratings of bogus bond agencies or the corrupted evaluations of  compromised underwriters, the credibility and cost of capital does not easily survive an uneven — and worse — arbitrary playing field.   Moreover, when the font of such arbitrary rule is the far less checkable Executive Branch (thanks to the “Imperial Presidency” that’s been on the march since Teddy Roosevelt’s day), we must ask what price capital will demand in order to stay seated in the U.S. casino?

I submit that our government’s increasing propensity to interefere on the “front end” of our private sector malinvestments raises the price of doing business in this country for everyone, from the lowliest pizza franchisee to the largest and most independent of private employers.   As a nation of commerce that must support an increasingly burdensome government debt, the U.S. can ill afford to become as short sighted with the levers of our economy as the typically historically benighted Latin American dictatorship.  

Therefore, the first thing we must insist upon — starting today — is strict adherence to the rule of law in adjudicating the many bankrupticies that are sure to follow those of our recently ill starred auto industry.    I think the only way to do so is to firewall the Executive Branch, and yes, even the Legislative Branch from these crumbling companies.  No more bailouts for cronies or interest groups, no more “temporary” takeovers, and most important, no more use of regulatory or fiscal authority to pit one competitor, employee pool or supply group against another.  If this need be enacted via judicial suit or non-violent protest, it must be our first priority.

The reason is simply that our families’  futures depend upon re-establishing our national credibility as a level playing field for business.   For if there’s one thing I’ve said here before that I’d repeat until I was blue in the face or until every short term thinking government “fix” proponent got it, it is this short slogan:

“CAPITAL IS MOBILE!”

If you think that capital will stand passively by for continual abuse simply because it’s being housed in the heretofore “land of the free”  and home of the “#1 economy”  (never mind “the brave,” we’ll let that one go for now), you do not recognize the power of the global capital markets in assessing risk.  

Believe me, after the embarrassingly thuggish “rescue” effected in the video above, the U.S. auto industry will be subject to that lesson in sudden and exquisite detail for as long as it takes this country to win it’s credibility back.

Don’t hold your breath.  Instead, get out in front of your Congressional advocates.   Let them know you take the reshaping of our legal infrastructure seriously.  And that you will hold them accountable for their silence.

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Call for Enlistment!

With the summary dimissal of [[TSO]] this week, I have an opening in the ranks I’d like to fill.   In fact, I may open the barracks to two or more if the stars align properly and there are attractive combatants ready to take the pledge to hard money and portfolio longevity that our General Jackson demands.  

One course I’m considering is having the Jacksons act as a 20-man platoon, with certain soldiers being held either partially or fully in reserve during times of either overvaluation or imminent reversal, whilst the others take up the battle against the Federal Reserve and it’s 12-battalion band of Redcoat brigands.   I believe I will represent this through a “going to cash” metric that I will include in my daily reports. 

For example, my sale of TSO resulted in a net cash position of $9,357  (a little more than a $640 loss from the original $10,ooo invested).   While TSO will soon come off the roles entirely, I will keep that cash for reinvestment purposes going forward, thereby keeping the Jacksonian Portfolio to the same accounting I’m using in my own portfolio.  

This method will also help better track my partial sales, like my “one third” position sale in [[TC]] the other day at $11.21, which would have yielded me an additional $5,250 in cash (keep in mind, the original $10,000 in TC was invested at $7.11 on May 1st.  Therefore, even after having sold a third, I have over $11,000 in value remaining ).   

So given those two sales, my cash position is up to $14,600, and burning a hole im m’ pocket.

I will work on adding these cash parameters so you can have a better idea of what I’m doing every day in my portfolio, and a better view on how I’m hedging the port against cyclical downturns.

In the meantime, I welcome suggestions with regard to additional Jacksons.  I can tell you now that the precious players will have a leg up and [[GG]] and [[AUY]] remain in the top contenders.  That said, I will look forward to your calls here.   Remember that I like liquidity, and volatility is not a plus in the Jacksonian fold.  Long term value trumps all, however, especially in the context of an inflationary or continuing deflationary market.  

Best  to you all.

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Addendum:   Forgive the indulgence.   I have one last tribute for my girl’s nativity.  Appropriately, it’s a song about a heart-stealing Kentucky woman, from the master himself, back before his voice went out altogether:

 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iq7ZkdNNPKI 450 300]

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Bloody Redcoats!

Today was that rarest of days — an entirely red painted day for the Jacksonians.  Even when the PM’s are having one of their regular group regurgitations, I can usually count on MON or NRP, or one of my less precious groups like TC , sturdy TBT or even blessed Mr. ANDE to come to my aid.   But not today.

All bloody red.  Impaled on the hard cold grounds of Boston to the tune of  some 2.5% down.  

 But that’s the breaks when you are building a hard money portfolio that was up some 25% in a month.  You are going to have to expect some pullbacks and yes, drawdowns.  We will talk about certain hedging strategies over the weekend and I will have a later post tonight to go over the specific individual Jacksons and some of my other picks in more detail.

For now, it’s off to a well-deserved libation and the start of my weekend.   I will see you all later tonight with the roundup.

Addendum:  I did add some today but just a bit.   1,000 shs of [[TIE]] at $11.01 and 1,000 shs of [[CDE]] at $12.50.   They looked like they had pulled back to some stability.  We’ll see, as I plan to add more of both in future.

Special Addendum:  Vincenzo explains to Fly what happened with the servers this afternoon:

 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KsU89R1A8M 450 300]

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Update“Bloody” Jacksonian Results for Today:

Name 11-Jun 12-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $   30.70  $ 29.79 -2.96%   Nice move down, next stop 20day–$26.40
EGO         9.15       8.79 -3.93%   Hung right on the 50-day @ 8.74
GDX       40.92     39.54 -3.37%   50 day at $38.39
GLD       93.70     92.17 -1.63%   POG under $940.
IAG       10.08       9.85 -2.28%   50-day @ 9.44.
MON       86.85     86.54 -0.36%   Relative strength is strong here.
NRP       24.21     23.85 -1.49%   Right on the 20-day line at 23.63
PAAS       22.61     22.04 -2.52%   Tested 20 day holding here.
RGLD       43.92     42.64 -2.91%   Bounced off 50-day EMA @ 42.22
SLV       15.13     14.63 -3.30%   PO Silver down 56 cent.
SLW       10.26     10.05 -2.05%   Held 20 day trendline pretty well.
SSRI       22.81     21.95 -3.77%   Closed just a hair below 20 day EMA
TBT       57.52     56.59 -1.62%   Continued pull back. 20 day @ 54.90
TC       12.13     11.76 -3.05%   Even TC needed a rest today.
TSO       14.98     14.98 0.00%   Flat, sold out.
AVG (daily)   -2.35%    
AVG (monthly)   -2.67%    
AVG (inception)   22.40%    

 

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Is there a Doctor in the House?

Sorry, I gotta make this one short and sweet.  I got a barfing three year old on my hands.   They don’t like to accomodate you at that age, if you’re familiar, so I have to play “moving target” ovah heah.

Anyway, the Jacksons didn’t do much today, and you can see my comments below.  The two big movers were [[TC]] — which is just a Godzillian monster ripping down ricepaper buildings in Tokyo — busted right past my 61.8% long term fib line today and proceeded to keep going.   I wanted to sell the calls only to find  — to my deep chagrin and embarassment — there were none.   So I sold one third of my position, as reported, at $11.21.   I guess we’ll find out very soon if that was a bad move, but considering I had gotten those shares in the low sixes, I could not complain.  

[[TBT]] is the other marching gorilla, responding to all kinds of distress out there in Ten Year Bond land.   Well, I just don’t think we’re going to crack 4% on the first attempt here, auction or not.   I just think that’s too easy.   I will likely sell the calls again tomorrow on any further march to $60, keeping in mind we may have seen the high water mark this afternoon at $59.79.

Only [[PAAS]] was over 2% for the rest of the Jackson’s and only [[ANDE]] — which needed a rest — was down more than 2%… so, a blah day.

I will caution you to watch the PM’s tomorrow however, as I got the feeling that this current consolidation may be coming to an end, one way or the other.  Stay alert.

On non Jacksons [[ENTR]] finally broke out a bit and [[ANV]] showed nice relative strength considering the paucity of movement in the rest of the gold sector.  That may be one to own when we start moving again.   

That’s all for now, save the list.   Be well everybody, and watch the puke flu.

______________________

{I know I keep fiddling with the format of this performance chart, but please let me know if you like this latest idea of putting the prior day’s post in for comparison’s sake.}

Name 9-Jun 10-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 31.30  $    30.48 -2.62%   Still on the trendline.
EGO       9.21          9.13 -0.87%   Would like to see it kiss the st trend line @ $8.90
GDX     41.09        40.80 -0.71%   Hanging on 61.8% long term fib.  Added 1k today @$40.88
GLD     93.83        93.86 0.03%   POG down about $2.  Waiting.
IAG     10.17        10.21 0.39%   Holding pattern.
MON     85.07        85.85 0.92%   Dropped and recovered nicely all afternoon.
NRP     24.11        24.01 -0.41%   Looking for a breakout above $24.60 to “prove”
PAAS     21.71        22.15 2.03%   Looking to get over $22.30 in the morning.
RGLD     44.37        43.90 -1.06%   Touched the trendline as expected, should go north from here.
SLV     15.03        15.01 -0.13%   PO Silver down a mere 8 cent.
SLW     10.29        10.18 -1.07%   Will it get to the trendline @ $9.90?  
SSRI     22.59        22.75 0.71%   Making a move for the top of the cup again.
TBT     57.22        58.77 2.71%   Missed $60 by fitty cent.  Waiting for auction to sell calls.
TC     10.58        11.32 6.99%   Just a freaking monster.  Took 1/3 off @ $11.21. Mistake?
TSO     15.51        15.35 -1.03%   Needs to show me something here, or buh-bye.
AVG     0.39%    

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