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Give me More of These “Days Off,” Please

    [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MXiUzCl9As 450 300]

Today I spent much of my “holiday”  (official, not actual) working on my bocce court in the blazing Southern sun.  Let me say that it’s days like this that give one an appreciation for manual labour (sic), though no avocation for it, let me assure you.

Know first that this bocce court is actually a 2+ year old “birthday present” from my loving wife, who — in a moment of true inspiration — thought that a bocce court would recall for me both fond memories of New York and my then-recently departed father– who though an Irishman through and through, loved the game like no other.  I was less enthusiastic, having a natural aversion to yard work of any kind, and this was looking more like “yard project” — a far more grim prospect.

The good woman persisted however.  We have a relatively large backyard, and she figured it would fit nicely at the far end, back by the willow trees.   As you might expect, this all ended up in the nightmarish category of  “never ending project,” where I’ve played the roles of designer, architect, general contractor, and — most recently — landscape engineer.

Mr first problem was that there was a dearth of Italian carpenters in my locale.   Well, “dearth” is a bit of a euphemism… actually, there were none.  There’s a restaurant downtown that has a bocce court, but I think they imported the guys who built it — a middle of the night operation.  What’s more,  the materials called for in the on-line plans we’d procured called for oyster shells and other exotic ingredients not readily available at the local Home Depot.   My loving bride would not be thwarted however, and she found a willing contractor who claimed he’d have no problem following our guidelines.

Never believe a contractor who says that kind of thing, okay?  They always have a problem, somewhere.  This one had all kinds of trouble grading my yard to a flat enough plane to lay out the 60′ court.   Three times he had to come in with the backhoe.   My two year old (at the time) loved it, at least.   After that, everything was “special supervision” on a Weekend Warrior basis– for the love of all green currency and compound interest.

So we finally got the court laid out and the sand, gravel and finally red brick dust (my secret ingredient to replace the “oyster shells” the online plan called for.  Note: I’ve never played bocce on oyster shells, that must be some kind of freaking West Florida bocce or something) placed within the 60 ‘x 10′ two by six pegged planks.   I was the one who personally laid down the brick dust,  after it was deposited by the dumptruck, btw.   I would trust no one else with it.  The old highball throwing Eyetals from Carroll Gardens would’ve been proud of my zen-like focus.

It was a beautiful thing up until the first major rains.   This is when I noted that “the ease of drainage” promised in my plans was a pile of horse.   The only thing that drained easily was my brickdust, down the side of the hill, out of a gaping hole carved by the rain on the lower slope of our planed lower yard.

So that’s been my Spring project this year – re-graveling and then shoring up my bocce court with various landscaping fascia, including, most recently, massive bricks of some unknown ground composite material.  I finished the last of it today, much to my lumbars’ chagrin.   My neighbors only chuckle knowingly at my Quixotic efforts and then go back to their more red-neckish pursuits of “corn-hole” (I do not jest) and deep fried turkey leg gnawing.

Tomorrow, however, we will have our annual Jakegint’s Dad Fourth of July Tournament,  along with Son #2’s 12th birthday.   God and my lower back willing, I will dazzle the locales with my ball curling prowess and it will be all worth it. 

God bless America and the Eyetalians who braved the cold Atlantic and  Ellis Island to bring us the perfect summer ale drinking sport.  Salud, and a Happy Fourth to you all. 

_______________________

Here are Wednesday and Thursday’s Jackson Port looks.  Nothing especially egrgegious save MONster, which I may have to cut completely loose upon a break of $70.   As you recall, I’ve a half position right now, and I think it’s so oversold right now, that no bounce here means extreme trouble, and therefore a recommended disposal.  Gold looks like it’s holding up here, which, as I’ve mentioned,  I believe means good things for silver as well.  The non precious metals seem strongest of all.  See my notes for further comment.  

Name/     %   %    
Ticker 30-Jun 1-Jul Change 2-Jul Change   Comments
ANDE  $           29.94  $      31.34 4.68%  $        30.89 -1.44%   Still riding the 8-day EMA like a champ
EGO                 8.95            9.17 2.46%              9.25 0.87%   Up, but on low volume.
GDX               37.82          39.41 4.22%            38.31 -2.79%   Low volume, just below the 50 day EMA
GLD               91.18          92.39 1.33%            91.25 -1.23%   Ditto,  POG just under $930.
IAG               10.12          10.65 5.24%            10.34 -2.91%   Bounced off 20 day EMA (10.06)
MON               74.34          73.20 -1.53%            71.96 -1.69%   Totally oversold, but sell <70 .
NRP               21.01          20.97 -0.19%            20.77 -0.95%   Ridicluously oversold, but sell < 20.50
PAAS               18.33          18.86 2.89%            18.22 -3.39%   Back in congestion zone.
RGLD               41.69          42.43 1.78%            41.52 -2.14%   200 day at $39.67
SLV               13.38          13.55 1.27%            13.16 -2.88%   Bot AGQ @ $39.20 yesterday
SLW                 8.24            8.55 3.76%              8.40 -1.75%   Closed right on the 200 day EMA
SSRI               18.75          19.07 1.71%            18.79 -1.47%   Close below 200 day EMA
TBT               50.92          51.06 0.27%            50.73 -0.65%   Still haven’t bot back yet… soon.
TC               10.22          10.38 1.57%            10.36 -0.19%   Still strong, above 20 day EMA
TCK               15.94          16.78 5.27%            16.09 -4.11%   Closed right on the 20 day EMA
TZA               22.75          21.54 -5.32%            23.63 9.70%   Portfolio saver today, still 1/2 position
Cash (000)  $          13.44  $     13.44 0.01%  $      13.44 0.01%   Same
AVG (daily)     1.73%   -1.00%    
AVG (monthly)   1.73%   0.65%    
AVG (inception)   15.12%   13.71%    

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Bernie Madoff, Prison Bride

Bernie Madoff, Prison Bride

So they gave Bernie 150 years in the slam. Sounds like a big deal, but I bet he doesn’t do 12… this side of the daisies, at least. Hey fugheddaboudit, he might even escape the above elaborate costume by becoming the “prison accountant” and doing Bubbah’s taxes every year. Can you see it?

Bubbalah, I have news! Yoah tax refund estimates out at 16 cahtons of Marlboro Reds and a case of Mint Jelly Spam. No, dahling, it is no trouble.  You just pay me my “dahposit” of five cartons, and we can get the ball rolling on this new “thing” right away!

He should be fine.

But enough about old Bernie.  Let’s face it, he’s getting what he deserves, and that’s what we’re all about on the Jacksonian Plan too.   Right now, it looks like the market is taking its time taking a decision.   Will she run up to the top of the hill at 960 again, or jump off the cliff righ here at 926-ish, and end it all, emo lemming style?   I admit I don’t know, as today was a veritable “stick in the mud” despite the drop in the dollar and the increase in oil prices.

Earnings are still coming out favourably (sic) in some industries, including health care and selected technologies.  Aging pension filler behemoths like Johnson & Johnson Johnson & Johnson [[JNJ]] , Amgen, Inc. [[AMGN]]  , Merck & Co., Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. [[MRK]] and even good old staple stock Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]] are starting to look like they’ves got some gusto here, and the Jackson’s seem like they want to go into hibernation.  

That doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made, however, and on top of the Jacksons I’ll be watching these nutty juniors like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , and some key techs that The PPT has been alerting me to.   Two I purchased today were Fly’s current hot pick [[ARMH]] and perennial PPT favourite (sic) [[BIOS]] at $6.02 and $5.83 respectively.  I am also waiting on an entry for TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , perhaps tomorrow.  

In the meantime, the only Jackson that I think looks appetizing here is [[TBT]] , as I think it’s getting very cheap again.   I continue to monitor the silvers closely, however, as they’ve been volatile lately.  That said, the spot price of silver is back above $14 tonight, and gold is back over $940 again.   Good signs.

 I promise to make myself more available tomorrow, and keep you updated on the purchases and sales, if any.   Good night for now.

Name/     %    
Ticker 26-Jun 29-Jun Change   Comments
ANDE  $      30.23  $      29.91 -1.06%   Low volume pullback.  Keeping an eye.
EGO            9.40            9.45 0.53%   Plateauing.
GDX          39.20          39.15 -0.13%   Hanging on the 20-day
GLD          92.29          92.04 -0.27%   POG over $940 now.
IAG          10.48          10.30 -1.72%   Low volume pullback.  
MON          75.25          76.20 1.26%   Still a lot of work to do.
NRP          20.82          21.02 0.96%   Watch for break of bear flag here.
PAAS          19.08          18.55 -2.78%   Turned away at the 200 & 50 day
RGLD          42.07          42.97 2.14%   Low volume retrace, not trusting.
SLV          13.90          13.66 -1.73%   POS back above $14 this evening.
SLW            8.72            8.52 -2.29%   Between the 50 and 200 day EMA.
SSRI          19.52          19.16 -1.84%   Same as SLW
TBT          50.84          50.65 -0.38%   Very slight pullback… looking to add again
TC          10.44          10.57 1.25%   4th upday, on light volume
TCK          16.56          16.06 -3.02%   Low vol, still above 20, 50, and 200.
TZA          22.50          22.52 0.09%   Flat on low volume. Do or die, here.
AVG (daily)     -0.56%    
AVG (monthly)     -6.96%    
AVG (inception)     14.80%    

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Bizarro-Close

My friend Mr. Russell was reconstituting today, just as my enemy Mrs. Pelosi was trying to reconstitute our country’s energy markets.  So you can imagine it was a bit harum scarum.

I will come back later, and blog like the wind in the willows (maybe I’ll have illustrative capabilities back by then), but now it’s off to a super important pool party replete with screaming brats.  Ah, parenthood.

Later.

____________

Back, and I’ve looked at the JCHP for today, and save for the bizarro behaviour of usually reliable Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , it looked like a general consolidation day for the PM’s, which is natural given the large moves a number of them made yesterday.  Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] continues to look good here, as do a the juniors I’d mentioned earlier in the day (see last post).

I will try to find out wtf is going on with RGLD this weekend. 

The other good news is that the non precious metals — Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] , as well as ag supplier The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] all look like they are uncoiling out of their bullish flags again.  Keep a close eye for volume increases.

Last, be sure to keep an eye on the biotech pinless hand grenades I’ve tossed around over the last couple of weeks.   A number of them did the astral elevator today, I think because of Russell Reconstitution Day.   They included [[HEB]] , [[CTIC]] and ImmunoGen, Inc. [[IMGN]] .

Lastly, Fly’s chip box chomper of the future, [[ENTR]] had a nice gain today, but more important, it rose on huge (almost 16x average) volume.  I did not see their name in the Russell rebalances, so this volume remains a mystery.  Something to look for on Monday, however, as significant volume is usually… well… significant!

The Jackson’s on Friday:

Name/     %    
Ticker 25-Jun 26-Jun Change   Comments
ANDE  $        29.95  $      30.23 0.93%   Moving nicely out of the bull flag
EGO              9.39            9.40 0.11%   Consolidation day for gold
GDX            39.99          39.20 -1.98%   Ditto
GLD            92.31          92.29 -0.02%   POG broke briefly over $940, then back.
IAG            10.58          10.48 -0.95%   Consolidation day for gold
MON            75.66          75.25 -0.54%   Ditto
NRP            20.83          20.82 -0.05%   Flat again, forming bear flag?
PAAS            19.34          19.08 -1.34%   Held up at the 200 day EMA
RGLD            46.00          42.07 -8.54%   Freakish late day drop.   Be prepared to cut 
SLV            13.81          13.90 0.65%   Up with the POS
SLW              8.81            8.72 -1.02%   Held up at the 50 day EMA
SSRI            19.65          19.52 -0.66%   Held up at the 50 day EMA
TBT            51.03          50.84 -0.37%   Near flat today, could be done w. pull back
TC            10.31          10.44 1.26%   Like ANDE moving out of flag
TCK            15.99          16.56 3.56%   Same, looking very strong here
TZA            22.74          22.50 -1.06%   Flattish for a triple.
AVG (daily)     -0.63%    
AVG (monthly)   -6.44%    
AVG (inception)   15.49%    

 Update: The Ozzie’s get it right.   Or at least their Senate does.  Let’s hope our own Senate can be as astute when this criminal theft Al Gore bill comes before them.   Hold your reps accountable on this one, people.

___________

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Jacksons in Mourning!

—-  Back Among Friends —

______________

C’mon, you know I couldn’t resist a low hanging curve like this one.    But enough about the not-so-mourned paedophile (sic), as it looks like the real Jacksons are breaking out again.  Even with the modified [[TZA]] hedge position, I still came away with a righteous 2.73% up day yesterday for the JCHP.

And that’s not including the sundry “side-bets” I made courtesy of the Chart Addict Casino and Burlesque Review.    I try not to play long there, as it can be “addicting.” 

Yesterday, while the site was down, I played around a little with the Jacksonian Portfolio Presentation again, and while I don’t think I will reveal the actual stock holdings every day, I thought the additional information below might be helpful for you to understand how I am trading within the portfolio to harvest gains and manage risk.   So today, I’ve done away with the “comments” portion in order to show you the actual holdings as of yesterday. 

As a point of clarification, the only change I made yesterday was to sell one half the TZA hedge position at $23.67, taking a little over a dollar loss on 201 shares (I still hold the remaining half).     That left me with a bit over $13,440 in cash in the position.  For the purposes of the weighting, I have cash sitting at an annual return of 2.5%.  

As you will see it was an amazing day yesterday, as silver cleared $14.00 and gold held steady as well, pushing the $940 area (we are flirting with that price again today, despite the rest of the market being down).   I think the miners will likely take a rest today and we may even be in for more consolidation.  The trick is not to get impatient here, and to manage your positions for the next major cycle turn. 

For today, continue to keep an eye on the junior miners, including Jacksonian Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , and non-Jacksonians NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Aurizon Mines Ltd.(USA) [[AZK]] and maybe most important, Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .  This should be a consolidation day for all of those, so shop with “moth hands.”

As for silvers, they are all strong relative to the market today as the underlying metal is making a nice return over $14 here.  Keep an eye on micro-junior [[EXK]] for action, and also [[CDE]] which seems to be a day ahead of its brethren, and may have a consolidation day today as well.

As for the non-PM’s… I continue to like Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] here, and good old Jacksonian Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] might run into trouble again at its 38.2% fib retrace at $10.88.   More in updates to come…

Jacksonian Core Holdings with Cash & Stock Weightings

Name/       Position’s Number of Percentage Weighted
Ticker 24-Jun 25-Jun % Change   Port Value  Shares of Port return
ANDE  $        28.84  $ 29.95 3.85%    $   18,085.75              603.86 10.34% 0.40%
EGO              8.51       9.39 10.34%           8,798.43              937.00 5.03% 0.52%
GDX            38.49     39.99 3.90%         12,103.51              302.66 6.92% 0.27%
GLD            91.45     92.31 0.94%         10,616.44              115.01 6.07% 0.06%
IAG              9.99     10.58 5.91%         13,045.62           1,233.05 7.46% 0.44%
MON            76.16     75.66 -0.66%           4,437.53                58.65 2.54% -0.02%
NRP            20.92     20.83 -0.43%           8,646.74              415.11 4.94% -0.02%
PAAS            18.47     19.34 4.71%         11,615.62              600.60 6.64% 0.31%
RGLD            43.74     46.00 5.17%         12,710.69              276.32 7.27% 0.38%
SLV            13.68     13.81 0.95%         11,218.52              812.35 6.41% 0.06%
SLW              8.34       8.81 5.64%           8,557.48              971.34 4.89% 0.28%
SSRI            18.65     19.65 5.36%         11,431.07              581.73 6.53% 0.35%
TBT            53.03     51.03 -3.77%         10,165.34              199.20 5.81% -0.22%
TC              9.63     10.31 7.06%           4,836.52              469.11 2.76% 0.20%
TCK            16.12     15.99 -0.81%         10,631.65              664.89 6.08% -0.05%
TZA            24.86     22.74 -8.53%           4,581.18              201.46 2.62% -0.22%
AVG (daily)     2.48%    $ 161,482.09  Equity value  92.32%  
AVG (monthly)     -5.89%    $   13,440.07  Cash  7.68% 0.00%
AVG (inception)     16.22%    $ 174,922.16 Tot Port Value 100.00% 2.73%

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Daze of Malaise

Sorry for my lack of attendance today, Jackson fans, sometimes I have to attend to things that are in the market but not of the market.   If that sounds vaguely quizzical, then it’s served its purpose.

Unfortunately, whilst returning from one such errand, I noticed one of my stops had triggered.   I say “unfortunately” because I am a very reluctant seller of any Jacksonians, unless I’m a full seller, as in the case of the unabashed drunkard Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] (which continues to toddle down the streets of Skid Row, stopping only to barf on the brogans of the local constabulary).

   Unable to part with my Monsanto Company [[MON]] altogether, however, I had set a stop on half the shares upon a break of $77.25.   Much to my rue and deep chagrin, said stop was triggered today, and I was left with only half my position.   Offsetting that mournful loss was the addition of another $4,530 in cash with which to gamble at quoits whilst smoking Churchillian Monte Cristos and imbibing  tinctures of absinthe & laudanum.

One of these days I will get around to giving you a picture of the actual shares and dollar amounts of these holdings (hint– they all started at $10,000 each) , so it won’t all seem such a smokey mystery.   In the meantime, you’ll just have to make due with the raw return numbers as you have been doing, along with an idea of the cash talings left over from various sales profitable and not so.   

One last point… the “Three N’s of the Apocalypse”  NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] all looked very healthy today, as did Jacksonian Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] .   It seems the golds are making out a bit better than our silvers, which have been hit by the same “industrial malaise” that afflicted not only Jimmy Carter throughout the 70’s and up to today, but even our faithful friend and ally, The Fly.   Even Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] which has made a valiant rebound, seemed tired by Bernake’s machinations today. 

What can one trust but the original money, one asks?  What indeud?

Name 23-Jun 24-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 28.23  $   28.84 2.16%   Weird candle today. Stochs turning up.
EGO       8.07         8.51 5.45%   Nice continuation.  50-day @ $8.60
GDX     37.33       38.49 3.11%   Back over the 50-day quick ($38.20)
GLD     90.92       91.45 0.58%   50 day @ 91.60, POG $931
IAG       9.58         9.99 4.28%   Nice continuation.  
MON     79.30       76.16 -3.96%   Sold half (58.65 shs) @ $77.23 (note cash below).
NRP     20.65       20.92 1.31%   Still hanging in there, facing my wrath
PAAS     18.31       18.47 0.87%   Still weak, as is silver in general.
RGLD     42.43       43.74 3.09%   Broke the downtrend line nicely.
SLV     13.62       13.68 0.44%   POS still under $14.
SLW       8.21         8.34 1.58%   Still looking for 200 day EMA @ $8.40
SSRI     17.99       18.65 3.67%   Still having trouble getting over 200 day EMA
TBT     51.85       53.03 2.28%   Treasury auctions over, I guess?
TC       9.42         9.63 2.23%   Rebounded, since I sold more, of course.
TCK     15.51       16.12 3.93%   Still bouncing, but w. less vigour (sic)
TZA     25.57       24.86 -2.78%   Down, but not as much as you’d think. Holding.
AVG (daily)     1.77%    
AVG (monthly)     -8.02%    
AVG (inception)     13.09%    
Cash ( 000’s)      $       8.67    
           

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Bang! Bang! Maxwell’s Silver Hammer

I was beaten like a silver gong today, and Mr. Market is telling me in not so polite terms that I’d better get the hood up on the convertible before he starts raining golf ball sized hail on my head.

I’ve been busy here so I don’t have a ton of time for comment, but suffice it to say, until further notice, we are in bunker mode.  That means I will be hedging the JCHP with double and treble ETF’s in order to make up for any downward motion in the silver and gold plays.  As well, I may either cut back severely, or totally eliminate certain positions.  

Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] is an example.    I am keeping it right now, even though it is down more than 10% since inception because it carries a high dividend yield (almost 9% at inception, higher now).  However, I may get rid of it if it dumps below $20.   I may also take this opportunity to lard on some [[SMN]] or other appropriate short shields.   I will definitely add [[TZA]] — the triple short small cap —  at the open for instance, since I bot some just before the close today for my own portfolio ($24.92

I think we’ll probably get a bit of a bounce tomorrow, and I’ll be taking that opportunity to move into cash and some hedges, as I don’t think this is over.  If it’s just a short term blip, so be it.   We can scale back in when the ground is safer.   In the meantime, protecting principal (and gains) will be the paramount idea. 

I’ll update the JCHP later tonight.

Update:  One thing to keep in mind is that the US Gubb’mint needs to sell over $100 billion in bonds this week.  You think there might be a reason to jack the price of Treasuries [[TLT]] for such selling purposes?  Remember, Goldman sells these things for them.

Update: Here’s yesterday’s ugly Jacksonians.  I just picked up some TZA @ 24.85 (yes, lower than yesterday’s entry) for insurance:

Name 19-Jun 22-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 28.61  $   28.45 -0.56%   Spent most of the session up
EGO       8.20         7.65 -6.71%   Broke $8 support, next at $7.19
GDX     38.39       35.74 -6.90%   Broke TL barely, needs to get back to 36.75
GLD     91.90       90.54 -1.48%   Also broke TL, needs to see over $91.50 
IAG       9.36         9.04 -3.42%   Also beneath TL, needs $9.35
MON     80.73       78.12 -3.23%   Still on trend, needs to stay over $78.
NRP     21.99       20.60 -6.32%   Sell below $20.00  
PAAS     18.93       18.02 -4.81%   Least banged up silver today, still above TL
RGLD     43.08       41.12 -4.55%   Still above TL, 38.2% fib @ $39.50
SLV     13.99       13.54 -3.22%   Still above TL til $12.87
SLW       8.63         7.97 -7.65%   Right on long term TL today, gotta bounce here.
SSRI     18.92       17.56 -7.19%   Still on long term TL til 16.50, could get there.
TBT     54.34       53.28 -1.95%   Could easily get back to 49.25 before bounce.
TC     10.54         9.40 -10.82%   Sell all on a break of $9.25, 1/2 on gap fill 10.38
TCK     16.54       14.57 -11.91%   Sell below 14.35, long term TL @ $12.50
AVG (daily)     -5.38%    
AVG (monthly)   -12.15%    
AVG (inception)   9.39%    
Cash ( 000’s)  $       4.61    

UPDATE: The following astounding link should be clicked by all.   Keep in mind that The POTUS just asked that the Fed be put in charge of MORE of our financial system, and then watch this.

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