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It seems Mother Market has decided to “take the piss” as they say in the jolly old UK, on my beleaguered soul today.   She drove the dollar up and the Amex Gold Bugs $HUI Index down to recent sub-optimal climes, while rifling my pockets for spare cigs and change for the jukebox.

I continue to call bullshit on she and her precious dollar, however, despite her mischievous manichean attempts to subdue me.    Because the dollar rolled today, only to see gold and to some extent, silver, remain unchanged.   I believe the reason the move was not taken altogether seriously is the amoung of overhead resistance the dollar will be limping into as early as tomorrow.   Note the base line “hold” (#1) and the three resistance lines (#’s 2, 3 & 4) fast approaching for the buck:

As a result of my decision to flail the dollar with a whipe of intertwined balogna skins today, I began adding more silver and gold miners this afternoon.  I did not add more AGQ, as I’d rather buy that on an uptrend, and escape its inherent volatility in an unsure market.   I did add, SLW, EXK, SSRI on the silver side, and NG, NGD, and AAU on the gold side.   Nothing extravagant,yet, mind you.   I’m  just pacing my way back into the game so I can blow cigar smoke at my nearest opponents’ wives.

SLW gives me comfort here, as far as today’s headfake.  Can you tell me why?

SLW is a must have in the port, ladies and gentlemen.  A must have.

Thanks again for all your kindness today, and I bid you adieu for now.

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And Just the Right Colour (sic), Too!

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It certainly feels good to stretch one’s wings once again, especially after a period of soreness and chafing, when the gold and silver markets pulled back in feeble, milquetoast fashion, rendering my hedges dull and feckless, and largely a waste of my time.   Luckily, I exited the remainder of my precious metal hedges today, and for the most part in the plus column (while my short ETF hedges were not), and the whole unpleasantness was avoided save for a more optimum re-entry price on a few select names.

As I previously stated, the dollar and the Amex Gold Bug Index ($HUI) were my guide in re-entering this morning, and the $HUI preceded the dollar in breaking that “roof” at $535 that has been plaguing us for the best part of a week.  I think today’s strong candle — on volume not evident in this chart, but in the individual names — gives we longer term players the assurance we need to be back in for the final ramp into Spring:

Note that upon the strong break this morning, I piled into AGQ with the gusto of a small ravenous narwhale amongst the migratory squid, immediately purchasing my first allocation (about one half of my expected total) without a limit order.  When things are breaking out like this, you always want to make sure you at least wet your beak so that you are not left behind in a tidal surge.   I also put in limit orders at this morning’s gap — and they never came close to being filled all day.   Tomorrow I shall try again for my fills there.

As planned, apres this break,  I also added to my considerable hordes in EXK, SLW, SIL and NGD.   As early as tomorrow I expect something of a pullback, but I will be adding at each opportunity.   Next in line is PAAS, AG, MVG and perhaps even CDE and HL.   I shall be as a fat suckling pig in a candy shoppe.   And no, I will not forget Prometheus’s gold — EGO, ANV and IAG will be added to as well, perhaps with IVN and AAU.

Scratch that, I just looked at the charts.  I will definitely be adding some AAU tomorrow.

Cheerio! Wot?  Your friend, Happy Jake.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfuBREMXxts&feature=related 450 300]

Boomer’s First Signed Act! (Check out the Instrumentalism!)

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As you well know, I am a believer– in many senses of the word (and the Word, and the weurd ).   But like Mickey Dolenz aimlessly tapping against the rim of a snare drum in an attempt to appear Ringo-weurthy, I am stuck here twiddling my Thaler collection, waiting for the second shoe to drop.

You remember my “I want to Believe” chart from four days back?  Well, it’s still stubbornly refusing to resolve itself, neither breaking down nor breaking out.   It’s enough to make one test the family flame-thrower out on the neighbor’s bird-stalking cat…

My patience is wearing to a thin thread, but I know I won’t have to wait much longer.  The dollar looks to be in its last throes, and will either spit the bit tonight, or take off in one last spasm of orgasmic excess followed by a quick-wilt into mid-February.   Your cue will be the $77.80 line on the DX-Y.  I believe that is our point of no return. 

Should the dollar fail there, I will be loading kegs of AGQ-brand sweet mead onto the back of my ale truck, along with SIL, SLW, and of course, EXK.    I will also have gold brands for you to swill, likely headed by IAG, ANV and EGO.   I never sold much RGLD, but I will likely be adding to that role as well.

For those of you who want something right now ,and cannot otherwise hold your water, I think the Borg cannot resist assimilating this latent bull, and so BWA should be bought here with alacrity.   The same goes for the providers of mining machinery to the mines above, JOYG and TEX.

JOYG to you all.

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The dollar finally bounced today, and in a big way.  As mentioned in my last post, the longer term dollar trend line held at just below $77.00 on the $DX-Y Index.  Gold and silver also bounced today after being somewhat bludgeoned the day prior.  Certainly this drama prattles on in more curious and curiouser fashion.

Like my friends Gary and Le Monsieur, I want to believe the precious metal bull is done consolidating and is ready to take off.  However, today’s considerable bounce in the dollar and certain things I’m seeing in the $HUI Goldbugs chart continue to give me pause.

Luckily, I think the question will resolve itself soon, as the $HUI is approaching serious resistance on the daily charts.  This resistance, if broken, will give me all the assurance I need to jump back in the market long and strong:

Now, I’m not one for advocating dandruff-shampoo formations, but the combination of approaching resistance, and the 50-day EMA give me enough pause to wait one or two more days to see how this all shakes out.  Again, if this is the C-wave finale, we’ll have plenty of room to banque large coin before it’s run its course.   The good news is the 200-day remains a rock solid buy-point, as it has throughout most of this long bull run for the miners.

On a happier note, today one of loyal reader Teahouse’s favourite stocks — FRG — got swallowed up by a hungry major, again illustrating why we like to buy and hold (even in diminished capacity) the junior miners in this bull instead of the larger miners. 

 In an increasingly active M&A market, you want to be holding buyout upside, not acquisition upside for the simple reason that,with the days of Cisco and Fifth Third Bank’s long acquiring sprees behind us, there’s just not much upside to owning an acquiror.  And in owning the juniors, you know there’s always a chance of even a crappy company waking up to a 25-50% price pop.   Play the odds that lie in your favor, I say.

In honor of Teahouse’s alert (I owned FRG but had never blogged about it until Employee 8 brought it up here), I will also feature another of his favourites tonight, MVG — a nice little silver miner.  He gave me some crap for selling the $12.50 February calls a couple of weeks back when I was hedging the portfolio, but that trade has worked out, and I still own all the MVG I had purchased down in the $6-$7 range as a result (I’ve since covered the calls at short pennies).

I thing MVG is not far from a bottom on this pullback, if it has not bottomed already. Moreover, it’s a relatively low risk play from this point on:

Congrats to Teahouse and all my other fellow FRG holders, and let’s get out and get the next one.  They’re coming for sure.

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Today was rough for me,raging metal bull that I am.   Despite all my sell downs, all my hedges, and all my short ETF’s, I was still up 1.3%today.  I could hardly believe my eyes when I looked at the end of the day.   But my pain is the deep distress of opportnuties lost.   I did a quick back of the envelope and realized that, had I had my full compliment on (i.e., the pre-January 2011 allocation), I would have been up some 4+% today.

So all I did all day was fret over the direction of the dollar.  As you are well aware, it continues to melt like a stick of bacon fat in a San Bernadino forest fire.  I keep thinking that the evil Bernanke buck has got to bounce soon, even if just for a little jaunt higher, so I can dispose of these cumbersome hedges and swing back into the market like Tarzan yelling for his elephant brethren. 

Luckily for me, around three o’clock today, I had other distractions to take my mind off the market, like a possible bluebird deal flying in my door from the lovely state of North Carolina, and– oh yeah —  Mrs. Jake calling to inform me she was in an auto accident.  I think this was maybe her (second? third?) intersection collision.  I really am starting to believe she thinks she’s driving a Bradley Fighting Vehicle instead of a well turned out Eddie Bauer Excursion.  Fortunately, this one’s getting a little long in the tooth anyway, and the minor damage she did is reparable.    Things will hold out until her birthday, I figure, and then I can surprise her with an IED-resistant Humvee or something in that “safe for all” category.  I believe my older sons will enjoy swinging the fifty cals back and forth in efficient cover arcs.

To get to it before it gets too late, I think we’re on the cusp, here.   We broke, if ever so slightly, the great bogey barriers of 12k on the Dow and 1,300 on the SPX.  That means we run like salmon for the fish barrell, or we mark a nice rounded top, whereafter we plunge into  deep despair. 

Well,  you at least.

[How could I ever despair, after all, when I’m working on my brand new laptop, with special “soopah secret” fingerprint scanning technology, so I can get into my blog-posting area and The PPT without ever uttering a single “Open Sesame?”   Aye, with only thelightest  swipe of a forefinger?  It’s a James Bond world we live in, I tell you, and I think my index print has been forwarded toErnst Blofeld for use in his underwater lair.]

Today, the whole enterprise of JakeGint Consolidated Commodities lies on the edge of a knife.   Will the dollar bounce, or continue to plummet?  Perhaps our chart from the other night can shed some light.   The following is pretty simple, either the dollar holds this line of defense, or it’s off to the races, at least for the PM hawgs and other such wolverines.  Attend to the trend:

Not dissimilarly, or coincidentally, silver is at the same juncture as the greenback, save opposite for effect.   If it continues to break out here, I will have no choice but to recommit, in large tusked porcine fashion, to all my silver longs once again.   The only thing I’ve bought recently has been SLW, and that was on a buy stop at $29.05.   If nothing else comes to Papa, then Papa may have to go to it.  Here’s your target:

  

You have your orders… carry on.

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(Due to a very late night at the office, the only correspondance tonight will be Haiku)

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Dollar bends to lows

Chuck and Fly Hoist Silver Cans

Toasting the Bernank

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Bernank spreads the gelt

Like bread upon the water

No Cat calls, Kettle.

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True Gelt responds not

To Aegypt’s mad ovation

For hunger and pain.

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We’ll wait this week out

To see which way the wind blows

Toward, or away.

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No changes, today, save an addition to my QID horde and a sale of one quarter of my remaining ANV, on strength.  I may consider more DXD tomorrow, depending on what the dollar does.  I may say “no mas,” too.

Best to you all.

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