Days of Misery and Roses

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Today was rough for me,raging metal bull that I am.   Despite all my sell downs, all my hedges, and all my short ETF’s, I was still up 1.3%today.  I could hardly believe my eyes when I looked at the end of the day.   But my pain is the deep distress of opportnuties lost.   I did a quick back of the envelope and realized that, had I had my full compliment on (i.e., the pre-January 2011 allocation), I would have been up some 4+% today.

So all I did all day was fret over the direction of the dollar.  As you are well aware, it continues to melt like a stick of bacon fat in a San Bernadino forest fire.  I keep thinking that the evil Bernanke buck has got to bounce soon, even if just for a little jaunt higher, so I can dispose of these cumbersome hedges and swing back into the market like Tarzan yelling for his elephant brethren. 

Luckily for me, around three o’clock today, I had other distractions to take my mind off the market, like a possible bluebird deal flying in my door from the lovely state of North Carolina, and– oh yeah —  Mrs. Jake calling to inform me she was in an auto accident.  I think this was maybe her (second? third?) intersection collision.  I really am starting to believe she thinks she’s driving a Bradley Fighting Vehicle instead of a well turned out Eddie Bauer Excursion.  Fortunately, this one’s getting a little long in the tooth anyway, and the minor damage she did is reparable.    Things will hold out until her birthday, I figure, and then I can surprise her with an IED-resistant Humvee or something in that “safe for all” category.  I believe my older sons will enjoy swinging the fifty cals back and forth in efficient cover arcs.

To get to it before it gets too late, I think we’re on the cusp, here.   We broke, if ever so slightly, the great bogey barriers of 12k on the Dow and 1,300 on the SPX.  That means we run like salmon for the fish barrell, or we mark a nice rounded top, whereafter we plunge into  deep despair. 

Well,  you at least.

[How could I ever despair, after all, when I’m working on my brand new laptop, with special “soopah secret” fingerprint scanning technology, so I can get into my blog-posting area and The PPT without ever uttering a single “Open Sesame?”   Aye, with only thelightest  swipe of a forefinger?  It’s a James Bond world we live in, I tell you, and I think my index print has been forwarded toErnst Blofeld for use in his underwater lair.]

Today, the whole enterprise of JakeGint Consolidated Commodities lies on the edge of a knife.   Will the dollar bounce, or continue to plummet?  Perhaps our chart from the other night can shed some light.   The following is pretty simple, either the dollar holds this line of defense, or it’s off to the races, at least for the PM hawgs and other such wolverines.  Attend to the trend:

Not dissimilarly, or coincidentally, silver is at the same juncture as the greenback, save opposite for effect.   If it continues to break out here, I will have no choice but to recommit, in large tusked porcine fashion, to all my silver longs once again.   The only thing I’ve bought recently has been SLW, and that was on a buy stop at $29.05.   If nothing else comes to Papa, then Papa may have to go to it.  Here’s your target:

  

You have your orders… carry on.

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