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WSJ/NBC Poll Puts Herminator In Lead

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI6-JzxV-_M&NR=1 450 300]

Plantation Boss Liberals’ Response Seems Less Than Pleased

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According to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released tonight, Herman Cain now leads the GOP field with a 27% share of the vote, with Governor Mitt Romney pulling second at 23% , and helmet headed Rick Perry falling from 38% last month in the same poll to 16%  in this latest effort.

I would say that Perry turkey is cooked, and its time to move on to the only man with a computer science degree and an MBA in the field.   A man with a plan (no matter how flawed) to limit the claims of the federal government on the capitalist incentive system that made this country great.  A man who has worked his whole life — in every trade from digging ditches to running multimillion dollar revenue companies.

And maybe most important, Herman Cain is comfortable in his own skin — without having to repair to it as his designated aegis or truncheon.   What a refreshing concept!  Good luck Hermanator!

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And please, just stop with the Mitt Romney stuff already.  He’s the establishment candidate in the best traditions of other past fatted calf candidates, like Bob Dole and John McCain.  While I have great respect for Mitt’s operational background and vast business success, I cannot vote (in the primaries at least) for a guy who continues to back his moves in creating Romneycare, along with all the baggage attendant in that decision.

The voting public hungers for a conservative once again.   Herman Cain is thus far the only conservative candidate with the personality, wits and contacts to win the long race to the White House.

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I did get rid of the bulk of my QLD today, as reported in The PPT, but did little else.  I had a rather mammoth  order in all day for rare metal play QRM, but to no avail.  Luckily I already own a small horde of the name, but I was looking to add on a pullback today, to no avail.  I believe it ended up over 14% for the day.  I will continue my intense observations.

I continue to stalk select names in the rare earth (AVL)  and precious metal field (SLW, AG, EXK, RGLD, ANV),  even as this rally gets long in the tooth.  In the meantime I am also selling down some winners.  Not just QLD, but ARO and some other names that have gathered some moss.

Best to you all and to this blessed and still great country.  May she choose wisely.

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Trannies Reach for the Flag

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTduy7Qkvk8 450 300]

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We may get a pullback here, or we may push right through to my target of $1227 on the $SPX.   As usual, the Trannies ($TRAN)  or “Transports” if you want to be “Charles Dow Formal,” will give us an idea of where the market is headed early on.

The following weekly,  has some good news and some troubling news.  The main positive appears to be that the Trannies, like the previously featured $SPX weekly,  have based on the long term 61.8% golden ratio level.  This is an extremely strong level of support, and we are headed up off of it, and over the 200-week EMA:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The not so appealing news is that we are beneath the 13-week and 34-week EMAs are above us, and we came up just short of the that first line today.   That may mean we are in for some further consolidation here.

If that is the case, and we drop back down to that 61.8% fib one last time, I will be loading up on my favorite “Eddie Izzard stock” — UPS.

As for today, I did nothing, thought I thought about grabbing some more SLW at “end of day.”  I just didn’t get back in time to do so.  Sorry.

Best to you all.

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Perhaps I am a Fool, Cato…

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA8QrOAghZ0 450 300]

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I started selling some of my QLD horde today, only to turn around and plow those winnings into more AG, SLW and EXK.

Why silver?  Mostly because the happy silver mining family was bludgeoned like a prize veal on the night before the St. Anthony Festival these last few weeks, and I like the reversion to the mean theory — no matter how temporary that reversion might be.

You know I started accumulating the PM ETF’s,  GDX, GDXJ and SIL last week in order to capture some of the rebound that I saw coming from that sector.  Well this week I will concentrate more on individual names like the above in silver and RGLD, AUY and ANV in the gold mining sector.  I might also dabble in those insane brothers XG and XRA.

Just to give you an example of what I’m seeing here, and why I think there’s still a lot of room in these PM names, here’s my markup of the EXK weekly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Note how last week the price bounced off the long term trend line only to leave that long tail in a hammer?  And note also how most of the stochastics are headed north once again?  I am seeing that in a lot of these names.   Again, it can all change on a dime in no time, and believe me, I will be ahead of you, elbowing you in the chin as I run for the exits if it does.   But right now, the dollar is on our side, and the momentum is coming back to these names.

Let’s have some fun while we wait for the deluge, shall we?

Best to you all.

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Long Term View Short Term “Pop!”

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD5nG2jEVgc&feature=related 450 300]

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The Futures markets in both stocks and commodities is telling us we’re in store for a candy-coated day tomorrow in the markets, all Yom Kippur expiations aside.   Many a times I’ve heard “Sell on The (Jewish) New Year and buy back on Yom Kippur” as tradition dictated that many of our Tribal brethren would be out of the market for that week.

I think that may be a bit of an old fashioned play (not many of my Hebraic trader pals took off for the entire week of “the Holidays” and Yom Kippur fell on Saturday this year anyway), but it’s still useful as a historical marker and perhaps an “excuse” for people to come out guns a blazing on that first day after All Sins Have Been Elided.

What better time to start stacking venalities up again for next year, nu?

Coincidentally or not, the current bullish outlook for the market synchs with some longer term market work I was updating this weekend.  For instance, this following SPX chart looks at the Fibonacci levels of the last four years, beginning with the October highs of 2007 as “the high Fib” and the March lows of 2009 as “the low Fib.”

Note how we launched all the way back to the 61.8% retrace in April ’10,  before selling off hard to the 38.2% fib line in July of that same year?  Then we had one more run to 61.8% before retracing briefly once more and finally breaking the bonds of the golden ratio (again, 61.8%) in November of ’10.

Note however, that we never bounced all the way back to the October ’07 highs?  That’s because we’re in a bear market cycle, my skepticons, and the bad news is we ain’t done yet.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t still have fun times, even if they grow increasingly scantier, right?  So let’s look at where this current selloff has based since this summer shall we?  Well, I’ll be kippered (no Hebrew) if it isn’t the 50% fib line providing support!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I think that given the current position of the weekly stochastics (i.e., “oversold”), we will likely get a nice “Euroliquidity” blast here, quite possibly taking us all the back to that 61.8% golden ratio one last time at $1227 on the above chart.

As a result, I plan to continue with my large QLD position and perhaps even “enhance” it with a little TNA, here.  I will skinny my SKFlles to a mere nominal position as I still do not trust the banks, but will also eschew all other negative-minded ETF’s for now.  I will likely also continue adding back to my silver and gold miner hordes, mostly through GDX, GDXJ and SIL, with opportunistic forays into SLW, EXK, AG and RGLD.

I reserve the right to change this direction on the turn of a dime, however, if things do not play out as Signor Fibonacci has directed.

In addition, later this week, I will attenuate this chart so you can see some more specific targets for the upcoming “deluge.”  And yes, folks, it’s still coming.  And time is growing short.

My best to you all.

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I’m Very Disappointed

Arod

Cocktail Party Acts of Levitation Aside, You Suck

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… So this won’t be long.

My damn Junkees left 423 guys on base tonight, mostly because they just didn’t feel like running them very hard.  They weren’t very stellar in the field, either, despite being at home.

Oh yeah, and I really, really dislike A-Roid.

I don’t care how damn good he is in the regular season, the guy is a choker.  Plain and simple.  You gotta perform on the big stage, Gayroid, or you’re nothing to me.  Your 600 home runs mean so much cow shit.  Go screw.

You suck.

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There, that is that.   As for today, I’m disappointed about that too.

You see I tried to get cute.  I went and bot 10k shares of EXK and 8k shares of AG at middle of the day prices.   Then I doubled my order at a substantial discount to my market order.   I did the same for AVL.   I got zero AVL as a result and not filled on my second half of the other two.  I have a feeling that will cost me in the morning.

Meanwhile, I kept my QLD and the GDX and GDXJ that I bought yesterday.

That is all.   I leave you now, grumbling into the night.

Go (NY Football) Giants.

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Addenda:  I’m pretty damn disappointed in this guy too (hat tip to DGM) :

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfMjbS0oWrE 450 300]

(If you squint, he looks like Arod)

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Ready for the Rubber Match?

Tex CC Burnett

Not Ready for the Rubber Match, Obviously

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The good news is that we should get a really nice bounce here in the next couple of days, and perhaps as early as tomorrow morning. The bad news is that I think we’ll very likely drop another 50 points on the S&P, and may drop as much as 90-150 before we get that rebound.

Here’s what I’m looking for on the $SPX — the only index that really matters here, although one could make a case for shorting the Cubes (QQQ) tomorrow morning as well, as it has yet to drop like it’s brethren.  I think that it’s very likely we get a quick broken elevator tomorrow to 1050, minimum.   If momentum really picks up, it might even drop as much as 90 to the second (red) line here:

 

 

And yes, even 950 is a possibility here, if the momentum gets all ragey to the point of the Friday employment numbers.  I really don’t expect that however, as we are egregiously oversold here.   I will be loosing my SKF, TZA and ERY to the trade winds as we visit these levels.  I may keep a base of the Skiffles, however.

Another reason I see the downspike continuing is that the dollar doesn’t seem to be done here, after busting through that resistance at $79 on the index.   I think the next target is the 50% retracement here:

 

Important to realize here, on this dollar index, however, is that price is finally through the 200 week EMA again, and we have the 13-week EMA finally crossing back over the 34-week EMA, with both on the upswing.   This is not good news for either the market or our precious metal friends, girls and boys.

Get your helmet.  Get two helmets and sit on one.   Protects against land mines.

Best to you, and take good care.

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