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You Lucky Birds

CArdgirl

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Yes, the Cards kicked ass in their usual inimical, erosive fashion, but the Lucky Birds are you today, my friends, not my 13 point winning, New York Giants imitating Louisville Cardinals.  Why you ask?

Oh!  How lucky you are to be able to catch the $HUI at the 200 day moving average!   It’s not often we get there:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m  going to grab some GDX and GDXJ, today as I think we’re close to at least a tradeable bottom.  We will likely have to be somewhat nimble, but I think this might be the nadir — especially if the dollar moves down into an intermediate cycle low.  ANV and BAA are my best individual bets for the risk takers.

For those among you who are adventurous… the cheap stuff on the silver side is really, well… cheap  !  SSRI is looking especially tasty here, for example, as is AGEXK already started taking off yesterday.  Of course SIL is there for those looking for “pool” instead of “pond.”   Note also, the rare-earths as well.  If the dollar drops, they will all benefit.

Have a great weekend, and go Cards (and Cats and Hoosiers, whoops! I win either way on that one!).

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Manchester and MONsters

 

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O17MA58P-QY 450 300]

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 Newton says that a body in motion remains in motion unless acted upon by another force.  Right now that treatise translates well into the action provided by our tentative bull market, perhaps best exemplified by the individual success of one CRAAPL, Inc. 

Do I trust this momentum?  Not for a minute, especially not with the struggles my belleweather precious metals stocks have been enduring — a precursor perhaps to the interest rate battles that loom on our horizon.   Will I play the momentum, however?  Of course I will, but with names that makes sense in the broader scale.

Right now, agricultural stocks are starting to make a stealth comeback… moreso those stocks who are largely designed to assist farmer’s yield.  Why?  I believe it’s because the farmer’s cost of capital has increased, despite our low interest rates, thanks to the ridiculous bull market in farm land prices.  Just in Southwestern Indiana alone, farmland that sold for $2,500 to $3,000 an acre six or seven years back is now going for well over $10,000 an acre, and in some cases being sold at auction for $14,000 an acre.  In places like Iowa, the values are coming in even higher.

All of that means that farmers need to increase yield value — even at $6.50 a bushel corn — in order to make a return.  That bodes well for fertilizer companies like  MOS and POT for example.  These are  two potential breakouts that are not quite ready for prime time, in my humble opinion. 

  Not so unready, however, is my MON-ster, which has been running nicely since the first of the year, and only recently experienced a pullback.   I think it’s the pause that refreshes, and the next stop is breaking out of this consolidating triangle (on the weekly) to take out the top of this fibonacci retrace:

  

 

Your relatively low risk stop is pretty obvious on the above chart (below $77.00).  Your upside is broad.  In the bad old days, MON got as high as $154 a share.   I think eventually it will leave even that number behind.

I think we can agree we are in a bull market– at least for the moment — even as we clamber up the Wall of Worry together, pitons digging for purchase, ropes securing us and sealing our collective fates should we drop.   If we are going to take advantage, let’s go after the stocks that have been making sense this year without making a big drunken fuss about it like CRAAPL.   That’s the ags, and I’ll have more on this subject.

Best to you all.

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Inna Sugar Shaque

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-hpzOdQQZk&feature=related 450 300]

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While I wait on the precious metal markets to resolve themselves, I’m subsisting on a diet of heavy metals and pure refined sugar.  If I taper off in my blogging in the coming days it’s likely because I’ve transformed into a Brundel Fly.

As mentioned, AVL , REE, MCP have been moving nicely (although tapering off a bit at the end of the day), while the PM miners tread water trying to catch a bid from the falling Uncle Buck.   I did note that BAA finished back above $5.00 again.

Nope, the only thing that really stood out today in the areas I’m looking at was a refiner… and no, not the petroleum and kerosene variety, but the lonely sweet variety, sugar shack shifter Imperial Sugar — IPSU.

There have been all kinds of articles about sugar being the commodity of 2012, and I take them all with a grain of salt (no pun intended).  I do, however, like a decent looking chart when I see one, and this one promises at least some continuation on today’s high volume, high percentage move.   Just like the last time we got a high volume candle, I think we’ll get at least two more days out of this, which could very well bring us to our next resistance, at the underside of the 200-day EMA, or appoximately $7.60.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For those checking the math, that’ approximately 34% over today’s close.  Do you feel lucky?

Well?  do ya, punks?

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Feel it in the Air (Gap) Tonight?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5qc3qZqe38 450 300]

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I’ve been lying low, deep within the underground catacombs of my hardened cee-ment (sic) bunker, waiting for the air to change before speaking with you again.    Last week the dollar was on the edge of a knife, and it looked like it was poised to strike a blow against my precious metal position that even I, in my well-defended fortress– Haz-mat suited and full-fetal positioned– would find difficult to withstand. 

But this morning, after a 36-hour narco-nap, I decided to “up-periscope,” fully expecting to witness scenes of post-apocalyptic societal dissolution.  Instead, I found these guys scurrying about, handing out large wads of $100 dollar bills for 500 yuan a piece.

Is it possible we are just enduring one last head fake before the dollar re-asserts itself and makes mince-meat pies out of all my lovely precious metal and rare-earth positions?   It’s certainly possible.

But for now, I will revel in the respite, as Stealth-Bernank and the Chinese work out their differences and my “tell-tale” stocks  — UPS, FCX and the rare-earths (REE, MCP, AVL, QRM) move nicely here.  

If you prefer gambling to regular, gentlemen’s club smoking room type investing (UPS, COP, CMI, MON, etc), then there are two current seat-of-their-pants plays I’m watching right now —  sugar high confectionary profits in IPSU and a little-bit-nutty, a little-bit-slutty rare earth play AVL

I also like SSRI, here, mostly for the pricetag on its silver.

God bless, and I hope to be with you more often this week.

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Counting Cards

cards
Irish
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Yes, it’s getting to be that time of year again.  That time when the Louisville Basketball Cards get my hopes up by doing real well (maybe even winning) in the Big East Tournament, only to dash my head up against the sea-foam flecked jetty by crapping the bed in the actual NCAA Tournament.

Well, they’re doing it again, playing one of the best games of their season against #9 ranked Marquette (the #2 seed in the Big East Tournament), snagging 26 offensive rebounds and forcing Marquette into 25 turnovers (they’d averaged 12 all year).  Will this defensive dominance be enough to take them past Notre Dame tomorrow night and into the finals on Saturday?

I don’t really care, as I’m steeling myself against any victory.  It’s all for the best, believe me.

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Except for purchases of EXK and TC on Wednesday, I’ve been sitting around eating samitches.   I’m still a bit leery of this market, despite the dollar losing a lot of steam today while gold & silver strengthened.   I’m up pretty nicely on EXK and I’m even thinking about adding some more AG.   However, I still continue to believe that AUY is one of the better bets in the gold miner market.  Check how the price has rebounded nicely on the weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And this is where I think the “safe zone” is to purchase … above $17.50 where that handle in the weekly will be better defined.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best to you all, and Go Cards! (and Big East in general).

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Here We Go Again

work
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Awakening by the Sea

(by a kid I know)

the glaring sun, already high,

the sky a namesake blue

the sea, a  mirror, floating by

reflecting azure hue

 

the sun comes in, the night that sped

to cover all has passed

so creeping in and on my bed

light reaches me at last

 

at first not knowing where I am

I slowly raise my head

Then memory breaks confusion’s dam

And brings joy in its stead

 

I do not think that there can be

in the mornings early light

many better things to see

than that ocean shining bright

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Nothing more becalming than the fresh lyrics of the 15-year old English student, no?  Well, to each his own.  I thought that was good enough for publishing anyway, and I needed some becalming after the day my port endured, even with only 60% exposure.  Almost all my high fliers got hit, but I think I see some relief in at least the near future as both the dollar and the miners ($HUI) run into key resistance and support levels.

First, the dollar, which this daily $USD chart shows has hit that resistance level again today and has backed up below $79.80 this evening.  If it continues to fall, we should see a tradeable bounce.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second is the $HUI weekly, which I showed last night as approaching the channel bottom.  Well we hit that bottom and bounced this afternoon.  If we stay in that channel and get a rise back up, we should be good for an extended period.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I bot some EXK at the close today and a large pot of TC as well.  I might wade in for some AG and possible NUGT too if I think the bounce has legs.  Best to you all.

 

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