And Just the Right Colour (sic), Too!
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It certainly feels good to stretch one’s wings once again, especially after a period of soreness and chafing, when the gold and silver markets pulled back in feeble, milquetoast fashion, rendering my hedges dull and feckless, and largely a waste of my time. Luckily, I exited the remainder of my precious metal hedges today, and for the most part in the plus column (while my short ETF hedges were not), and the whole unpleasantness was avoided save for a more optimum re-entry price on a few select names.
As I previously stated, the dollar and the Amex Gold Bug Index ($HUI) were my guide in re-entering this morning, and the $HUI preceded the dollar in breaking that “roof” at $535 that has been plaguing us for the best part of a week. I think today’s strong candle — on volume not evident in this chart, but in the individual names — gives we longer term players the assurance we need to be back in for the final ramp into Spring:
Note that upon the strong break this morning, I piled into AGQ with the gusto of a small ravenous narwhale amongst the migratory squid, immediately purchasing my first allocation (about one half of my expected total) without a limit order. When things are breaking out like this, you always want to make sure you at least wet your beak so that you are not left behind in a tidal surge. I also put in limit orders at this morning’s gap — and they never came close to being filled all day. Tomorrow I shall try again for my fills there.
As planned, apres this break, I also added to my considerable hordes in EXK, SLW, SIL and NGD. As early as tomorrow I expect something of a pullback, but I will be adding at each opportunity. Next in line is PAAS, AG, MVG and perhaps even CDE and HL. I shall be as a fat suckling pig in a candy shoppe. And no, I will not forget Prometheus’s gold — EGO, ANV and IAG will be added to as well, perhaps with IVN and AAU.
Scratch that, I just looked at the charts. I will definitely be adding some AAU tomorrow.
Cheerio! Wot? Your friend, Happy Jake.
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AGQ? Here I am about to sell and you are piling in.. you seriously think this is just getting going dips aside? I guess so since you’ve posted as much and are buying at this point.
Yep.
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“… I piled into AGQ with the gusto of a small ravenous narwhale amongst the migratory squid,…”
Nice imagry. You must be watching Animal Planet while perusing for stock ideas.
I like your “piling on”, or back in to the G&S trade. The reality is, inflation, as measured by pre-1983 CPI calculations is running about 9%. It’s actually about 5%, based on pre-1990 calculations.
Had the egregious BLS not changed the calculation over the years to make CPI less volatile (and artificially lower), we may have avoided the housing crisis in 2007, if “The Bernank” was honest about actual CPI and raised rates back then.
No doubt, you’ve probably realized that there are 3 kinds of lies: Lies…damn lies…..and statistics.
One has to be a non-sentient zombie to not notice the egregious price raising (and package shrinking) at the local grocery store.
I actually just noticed the other day that almost none of the coffee brands carry one pound bags anymore. Some are 11 ounces!
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you hit the key point right there “package shrinking”
not many people look at volume by weight and size etc., I do and I know all manufactures have slowly reduced everything little by little, 10 years ago package “X” was 18oz, then 16oz then 14oz, then 12oz and now 10oz…..same “looking” container but they hope no one notices, even toilet paper is now smaller in width and look at coffee, all coffee bought years ago was 1lb, then it was secretly knocked back to 14oz then 13.5oz then 12oz then 11oz and now you look and see some coffee is 8.5 or 9.5 or 10oz….. next you’ll only be able to purchase a spoon full at a time.
the ‘ol “one less olive in the jar” trick…. no one will notice shit.
Our favorite shrink at home is napkins. Our favorite brand trimmed about 1/4″ off of one side. Still 250 in a package. They do look funny in the napkin holder though.
The good news is that with fewer ounces to consume in each package, less TP will be needed and fat people will lose weight.
Soon eggs will be $1.00
each
Also icy water has been know to cause “package shrinking” in some cases.
At some point, when the peanut butter jar is too tiny to get the knife into, or it takes 3 boxes of cereal to fill your bowl, the packaging side will reach a limit and prices will have to rise (more).
Doesn’t bother me.
I get my napkins at McDonalds, my Splenda at Chick-Fil-A,ketchup and mustard at Panera, etc.
I have a couple of years supply at home and it is my way of beating inflation.
If anybody asks I will act like Uncle Leo- Arrested? Come on! “I’m an old man. I’m confused!”
You can’t see it but trust that your comment brought me a wide smirk.
Thanks for the post. What do you consider your best two or three picks? PAAS has acted very nice this week, EXK seems tentative…
EXK is a long term pick. I put it in the category of SLW in that sense.
But the strongest silver stock is SLW– you should have that first. PAAS is a must have as well, also more mature than EXK. For gold, it’s probably ANV, and RGLD for the long term.
I’d say EGO, but you never can trust the Red Chinese.
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Indeud – those PLA troopers will eat anything.
Here’s to a joyous dollar collapse!
Cheers
Slainte!
Speaking of the Irish salute, did you read that Michael Lewis article about the Irish real estate/banking collapse in Vanity Fair? Unbelievable.
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Probably should have never bailed the banks out in Eire. That country is fucked for the next 10-20 years.
Demographics add gasoline to that debt fire too. Ireland is all old people.
clink.
Hello, just wondering on your thoughts on GDXJ or GDX for those less skilled in managing individual positions?
Thx
Both are essential to a well balanced diet. Might I also recommend SIL, which is the silver equivalent of those two?
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thoughts on SLT… looks like nice buy at current price -15% YTD
Sorry, not familiar. Not such a fan of copper, here, either.
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CDE was my Feb Seasonality play…it’s been positive 18/20 years and has an average run of 9%….which happens to also be my current paper profit on the trade…now you have me itching to pick up some PAAS.
Jake after looking at your gold picks…Ego is the standout to me bought some today.
Got EGO in the annual pick contest.
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you the gold man!
Bot some SLW, NGD, ANV and PAAS today. Will look at possibly adding RGLD, EGO, MVG and EXK or going simple with SIL/GDX/GDXJ
Fully loaded about 30% of port. MVG, NGD, SLW, SIL, EXK, ANV, PAAS, AAU.
How am I doing Jake?
Very shiny.
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Jake have you read the broyhill report on deflation?
Jake have you read the broyhill report on deflation?
Link?
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What happens with Yen and Euro as dollar drops?
Well, the dollar is usually dropping AGAINST those two — that’s the DXY index… it’s heavy those big currencies.
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Don’t know that this is true, but it would not be surprising. I do know that there hasn’t been an audited inventory in Saudi Arabia since the intl. oil companies were kicked out. With OPEC voting based on oil reserves, why would any country lie about something as serious as that?
Fresh from WikiLeaks, the U.S. fears that Saudi Arabia may not have enough reserves to stop a spike in oil prices. The cables from the U.S. embassy in Riyadh show that a Saudi government oil executive warned the U.S. that the oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300 billion barrels. The cables which date between 2007-2009 show that according to Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at Aramco, told U.S. diplomats that by possibly as early as 2012, global oil production will have hit its highest point. Husseini said that at that point Saudi Arabia would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because they had overstated their recoverable reserves by 40% in order to attract foreign investment. Previously in our energy reports, FutureMoneyTrends.com has stated that OPEC not only won’t stop hundred dollar oil, they miss hundred dollar oil. A possible reason why is because OPEC nations know that oil demand is going to continue to rise and they simply can’t keep up with the long term demand for cheap oil.
One of my friends was a Sr. Petrophysicist at Saudi Aramco for many years. Every year, the order would come down from the king to make the reserves a little bigger. So he would at 0.2 to the reservoir porosity, or reduce water saturation a tad. Every year. This is no surprise to me.
Saudi Arabia’s big oil fields are the big Mexican oilfields of tomorrow (fast decline after peaking). At that point, Aramco will be offering engineers and geologists signing bonuses well into 7 figures to go there for 3-5 years (which they have done in the past when things weren’t even that critical). I might be tempted. But probably not.
Another big problem is that they’ve pumped so hard on a lot of their wells that water coning has destroyed good reservoir in many cases.
Don’t even get me started on the wastes of flared solution gas.
I am increasinlgy convinced that this whole Wikileaks thing is a massive CIA disinformation program.
What have they really leaked that’s been harmful?
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Exactly. The next big flash will be “Precipitation in Spain, is not as likely to fall in its more mountainous region.”
If that’s true then LOB in oil?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks
Isn’t this what the red diaper doper baby is always whining about?
Which one?
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Some terribly bad news on the Jakegint family home front. Not my nuclear family, but a close relation.
I beg your indulgence. FWIW, today is likely a good day to purchase some miners.
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sorry bro …
Best to you
Really sorry to hear that Jake. I second what ecchymosis said.. Best to you.
Be safe and well wishes.
Ditto. Sorry to hear that.
Sorry to hear that Jake.
sorry to hear that
Deepest sympathies and condolences.
Sorry to hear Jake, best to you..
So sorry. Hang in there!
Hmmmmm….http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-comes-executive-order-6102-qe-generation-dutch-central-bank-orders-pension-fund-sell-it
Sorry to read of your family misfortune. I hope all is well.
As a side note, do you ever mess around with very junior gold miners? I’ve been interested in a couple like GGAZF.PK, SNDXF.PK and YNGFF.PK — But don’t know if I should just man up and buy some majors. I’m already long GGA.
Thanks everybody, for your consolations. I’m grateful for and touched by your support.
Bob — I don’t mess around with really illiquid tiny stuff for the most part. I’ve found over the years that its mostly just not worth it.
I will play stuff that I think will launch over $5 soon ($5 being the area where larger institutions will begin to buy certain stocks). Good examples are/were AAU, NGD, EXK, BAA, RBY, etc.
Heck, many of the Jacksonians were single digit stocks when I first bought them. The pink sheet stuff, however, is usually too illiquid for me to get in and out of easily.
I do have one micro-micro that I will not even speak of here. It’s a “Buy and forget” and likely will end up zero.
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