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It seems Mother Market has decided to “take the piss” as they say in the jolly old UK, on my beleaguered soul today. She drove the dollar up and the Amex Gold Bugs $HUI Index down to recent sub-optimal climes, while rifling my pockets for spare cigs and change for the jukebox.
I continue to call bullshit on she and her precious dollar, however, despite her mischievous manichean attempts to subdue me. Because the dollar rolled today, only to see gold and to some extent, silver, remain unchanged. I believe the reason the move was not taken altogether seriously is the amoung of overhead resistance the dollar will be limping into as early as tomorrow. Note the base line “hold” (#1) and the three resistance lines (#’s 2, 3 & 4) fast approaching for the buck:
As a result of my decision to flail the dollar with a whipe of intertwined balogna skins today, I began adding more silver and gold miners this afternoon. I did not add more AGQ, as I’d rather buy that on an uptrend, and escape its inherent volatility in an unsure market. I did add, SLW, EXK, SSRI on the silver side, and NG, NGD, and AAU on the gold side. Nothing extravagant,yet, mind you. I’m just pacing my way back into the game so I can blow cigar smoke at my nearest opponents’ wives.
SLW gives me comfort here, as far as today’s headfake. Can you tell me why?
SLW is a must have in the port, ladies and gentlemen. A must have.
Thanks again for all your kindness today, and I bid you adieu for now.
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Agreed!
That’s weird, no?
Get ready to crash.
The Bernank will crash the dollar. He really has no other choice.
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Current interest rates do not support a dollar crash thesis.
I don’t think it will be a slow boat turning when the rest of the world realizes “the jig is up.”
Right now, there is no alternative to the dollar. But there’s only so long you can step on someone’s neck before they squeal.
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PM buyers today are like people who notice that someone has set up TNT in their appartment lobby with an unlit long fuse heading out to the parking lot, so they move out (of their appartment/dollar which they have known as a safe haven). Of the rest of the people, some have seen it but have already gotten used to it sitting there inactive, so they take comfort that odds are it won’t blow “tonight”. Others haven’t even noticed it. But once the powder is lit, everyone will be running for the door.
People aren’t rushing the door yet, but the trickle is increasing. Not only will PM participate in this transfer, but they will be a “dutch tulip mania” but on a protracted global scale.
What will light the fuse? Officially acknowledged inflation over 10%.
A fast turn would, I think, require a black swan event. The question then becomes: “What event would cause a rapid flight out of the dollar?”
On the same page, thanks for all your insight Jake!
What do you think of GPL (GPR on the TSX). I hope you like it cause I got some.
Just started looking at it. May give it some time here, as I already have plenty of Mexico exposure through EXK.
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You buy SLW, Chess shorts it. Tough call, but I went with the shiny stuff. Bought some SLW, EXK. Bought AAU too. And some ACQ. In Jake I trust. Never thought I’d say this, but hope you’re wrong, Chess!
Chess is much more short term oriented. I don’t have the ability to jump in and out like he does, and many here do. This blog is much more oriented toward the medium to longer term traders.
We can all win, depending on our respective time frames.
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This makes much more sense to me, thus my thanks for your insight Jake. In and out doesn’t work for me any longer, patience is a virtue…grabbed BWA the other day as well.
SLW OPTIONS??
Not until we’ve got a higher high on the $HUI.
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Which of the two is the better to have. AAU or SLW? 🙂
No question, SLW.
Is that Newton?
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Thanks Jake.
Its Henry Addington, British statesman, and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1801 to 1804.
Handsome fellow!
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Fitting title, my man!
Indeuuuuud!
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Jake,
do you have an concerns that the $HUI has turned downwards and closed below the level that triggered your recent purchases?
And if this should be an indication that the PM’s are to take another leg lower before resuming the bull, would you be inclined to sell and buy back at lower levels, or just sit tight and ride it out.
thanks as always, keep up the great work
It never hurts to take partial profits if it means keeping you long longer on your remaining positions.
Maybe you buy back at a higher price, maybe not.
A friend of mine who has been a precious metals bug for years
says trying to time it doesn’t work for him,
just buy in small steps.
Flyaway is exactly right. I am not all the way back in yet, and trying to time the PM bull is like trying to catch a housefly with a pair of chop sticks.
I’m in about 75% right now.
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Some find it easier than others.
I know this blog, and interest is tilted heavier to the Silver/Gold side, but…. Have you ever looked at ticker: AZC? I was perusing metal stocks this weekend and this one looks pretty interesting. Mine opening in Arizona as soon as 1H2012 — A lot of the financing/permitting in place — Just went over $5/share…. Looks overbought in the near-term, but I am thinking about a position if I can build one on any dips.
Haven’t really looked at it, but nice breakout today…. and it fits into the theme of my next post!
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