[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1I5n2-ro_Q 450 300]

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Within a short number of years and certainly within the decade, we here at iBC will have created our own language from whole cloth, and the only people who will understand a word we are saying will be the slavish few who have hung on here for every nuanced phrasing and reworked 70’s-era cartoon-network pop cultural reference.

In future, iBC particpants  will not seek to purchase the equity receipts of a heavily shorted security in order to force immediate re-purchase by said short sellers, but instead one will “GO HAM” on said equity receipts and save time and exertion associated with over-verbose description for other tasks.

As well, one will never speak of aforesaid unfortunate short sellers as “portfolio damaged,” or “margin overburdened,” or even “equity depleted” participants in these volatile markets but rather as members of the investment community who, good character not withstanding, have been “GRAPED,” and left for corpse-pilfering on the side of the lonely road.

Brevity being the soul of wit, such gradual neologistic replacement will not only render these fora more humorous (sic), but also far wealthier in the end.  Hang on for the ride.

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Today was the best day of the year for me thus far, and it’s been a pretty good year thus far.  For one thing, all my precious metal positions went HAM on me today, with most breaking the 5% barrier and some flirting with 10% (like SSRI, ANV and IAG).  Moreover, my two big rare-earth metal plays, QRM and AVL were also up big at over 7% and over 10%, respectively.  Unfortunatley I wasn’t fully invested, having kept quite a bit of cash on the sideline for “opportunities,” and also having sold my AGQ and NUGT just yesterday to reduce leverage and risk.

I’m not as bent out of shape about that as you might think however.  I still returned over 4.2% today, and now I do have dry powder with which to pick off new targets.

Some of those will be additional pickups of the “Samurai Seven,” of which only two are currently precious metal picks —AG (+13.4%) and RGLD (+6.7%).  Nevertheless the full portfolio is up 11.1% since inception, and that’s despite two relative laggards in the short list portfolio.

As for the winners in the Seven, I am really enjoying this 28+% run in PBR since the start of 2012, and kicking myself for not making it my “Stock of the Year” pick.   I am also well pleased with the double digit returns of DE (+13.5%) and MON (+16.5%) since our entry.

The two Samurai I shall be gobbling tomorrow, double-ham fisted, however, are my two laggards, UPS (+3.3%)  and COP (-4.0%).  Both have nice dividends and UPS is finally creeping through that ceiling we talked about earlier in the year. getting ready for a breakout.   You cannot keep a good man down, or a good company, and these two fine specimens will do us well as the Bernakean Liquidity Parade Rustles on.

My best, and red eye ham gravy, to you all.

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I want to thank the President for the belly laughs provided in tonight’s  State of the Union speech.  It’s good to know that when his political career is finished, he can always support Michelle and the girls by opening up for Chris Rock or Lewis C K.

Still getting over the stitch in my side from this quote:

I’m a Democrat.  But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed:  That Government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more.

This claim, mind you, came after he had just laid out a bunch of additional spending promises for (yet more) “new employment training,” extending tuition assistance,  low cost refinancing for underwater mortgages, and of course,  and even more subsidization of the multiple train wreck crony-chocked “clean energy” industry.

There was even more, of course.   Remember this gutbuster?

Let’s never forget:  Millions of Americans who work hard and play by the rules every day deserve a Government and a financial system that do the same.  It’s time to apply the same rules from top to bottom:  No bailouts, no handouts, and no copouts.  An America built to last insists on responsibility from everybody.

Again, the President said this after bragging about allegedly saving the auto industry by stealing it from bondholders and handing it to the UAW.  He said this whole promising the aforementioned mortgage bailouts and further subsidies of everything from windmills to egregious college tuitions.

A famous commentator today said to watch for the President bringing up “blueprints” for the future.  He mentioned that this was the mark of the Utopian… the “grand plan” of the beloved leader that if only followed, would lead us to prosperity.  Sure enough, the President used the term… twice.

In short, the speech was filled with the same Newspeak nonsense, class warfare, and promises to increase burdens on the private sector that have been the stock of the Obama Economic Takeover since the days when he was riding herd over both houses of Congress with Madame Pelosi and Harry Reid.

Admittedly the guy can deliver a speech as well as Billy “Smoove” Clinton.   He should take this comedy gold one the road in 2013.

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Meanwhile, back in the more serious climes of Superbowl host city Indianapolis, I was greatly disheartened after the GOP Response speech of “My Main Man Mitch” Daniels.

No, not because it was a poor response.  No.  In fact it may have been one of the most powerful — and most appropriate — responses to a Statist’s “blueprint” I’ve seen since the Reagan years.

No, my loss of heart was due to Mitch himself.  He was, from the very start of Obama’s Administration, my number one choice for the 45th President of the U.S.   He’s been nothing short of magnificent as an intelligent and powerful Mayor of Indianapolis, and later, Governor of Indiana.  He’s got a big brain and an outstanding temperament.   Unfortunately, it seems he loves his crazy wife more than he feels an obligation to the country.   That’s disappointing, to say the least.

Have a look at this incredible response, and reflect with me on what could have been:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSAmkDUi4PQ 450 300]

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CRAAPL crushed after the bell tonight, so I expect we should get more and more of the more tomorrow.  What’s more important to me is that the dollar continues to struggle and silver looks to be holding up in turn.   It remains to be seen what the POTUS’s speech does to the markets tomorrow, but I think I can state that there was nothing especially market moving in the entire catalogue.  The dollar will continue to call the tune.

God Save the U.S.

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While the Samurai Seven 2012 picks continue to do well, with a 7.5% annual return thus far, not all of them are rising in concert.   Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR), which has recently switched from selling shitty beer to becoming a monopoly owner of Brasilian (sic) earl assets (good choice, there), is my big winner with a 20.5% YTD return.   Ironically, my lagger, and only negative return thus far at (2.20%) down is another earl and natty producer and mover, Conoco (COP).  Much to their chagrin, they are actually forced to compete with other earl and natty gas companies in the U.S. and abroad.   I still like them, however, and their 3.7% dividend is a nice cushion here as well.

My other two strong returners of the SamSeven are in the agricultural space, John Deere (DE) and Monsanto (MON).  They are returning 12.4% and 15.2%, respectively, this year, not counting dividends.  My “stock of the year” pick, UPS, is muddling along, still trying to break that $75 ceiling and returning 2.9% before dividends thus far.

That leaves my two “precious” picks, of the SamSeven, AG and RGLD, which are treading water as well, at 3.2% and 0.6%, respectively for the year.   As you know, these two are dear to my heart, and I think, after a rough 2011, the PM’s will be ready to move out once again this year, thanks to our friends in Washington with the printing presses. 

Remember, this is an election year and the Fed’s Primary Directive, not unlike that of the StarFleet Federation is — “don’t rock the flagging boat.”  Whomever wins or loses in November, the Fed doesn’t want any of the blame to come to its door if it can help it.  They know, in the end, where their bread is buttered, and they sure don’t want to give Mr. Ron Paul any more ammo in a year when he’s got a tiny little bully pulpit.  Ironically, they can achieve that by printing like there’s no tomorrow. 

So what I’m watching for right here is the important “Line of Death” for the U.S. Dollar — at $81.50, which you may recall is where I predicted the dollar would stall and therefore set the market running.   Well, we banged up a little past that mark last week, and have since turned down.  Now we meet some important resistance at the $79.50-$80.00 level.    If the DX-Y fails there, it’ll be risk on, across the board, and I think the precious metals will be ready to take off in a much bigger way.

Until then, I’ll be wary, and doing much of nothing except perhaps trimming the sails here and there.   I hope to put up that long term monthly dollar chart this weekend,  to illustrate the importance of that “Line of Death.”

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Aside — I’m not a Gingrich fan as many of you know.  However, I have to admit, I’m baffled by the turpitude of the mainstream media in pushing this transparent re-hash of his divorce just days before an important primary election.   I mean, I almost have to think this is some kind of bizarre set up to give Newt an easy foil.

Could CNN really be that dumb?  I literally felt like I was watching an outtake of Idiocracy last night when the first question that blinking fool asked in the Presidential debate was about a 20 year old divorce battle.  Seriously CNN?  You call yourself a news organization?  Then what is The National Enquirer?

Really… almost too easy for the Newtster.  Stick a fork in the MSM, they are looking a bit overdone about now.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXt56MB-3vc&ob=av2e 450 300]

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Gold and silver are hanging in there and battling uphill against what looks to be a consolidating, yet hardy dollar.  What’s odd is that other manner of metals are starting to come out of hibernation as well.  Not just the precious, near-precious and the rare earths, but the more industrial metals as well, like molybdenum mining Thompson Creek (TC).   More signs of Bernakean loose cash, like our bubbling crude?  It’s arguable, and it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

Take our rare earth friend from a couple of days back QRM.  It’s been “on fiah” this week, but in the long range look, we’re not doing much but overcome  a resistance level.  Lookee see at the updated chart below.

 

My target still stands, but I think we’ll get another move to the consolidation line while that RSI works itself off a bit.

With regard to TC, we’ve also had some very nice moves in the last week or so.   But on longer term inspection, it’s really just all about gaining back lost ground… and maybe not for much longer.  Check the weekly:

Note that despite the nice move it’s had coming from below $7, TC still has a way to go to be pronounced in “bull mode” again.  Still, it bears watching after such a move, even if it be for more ursine pecuniary reasons.  I’ll be bailing before that high $8 line, and maybe as early as tomorrow.  I think this is a nice long termer once it breaks resistance, but I may even play it short on this set-up.

I’ll let you know if I can get a break tomorrow…

Best to you all.

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I’m on the road again, folks, so this is going to be a rant free review of a recent pick.  It’s been a little bit over a week since I put this blog post out showing what levels I was looking for to mark a Monsanto (MON) to make a Monster breakout.   If you recall, the original weekly chart looked like this:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now look at what that weekly chart looks like only a few trading days later:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While there’s still plenty of room left for this to run on the weekly (note the circled stochastics), I think the ceiling is here very soon for the near term as you can note on the daily below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depending on how much of a pullback we get in the near term (if the dollar takes off, for example) we may drop back enough to fill that gap.  Keep in mind, however that the more likely pullback will be the 61.8% fibonacci line on the weekly ($74.88).

Best to you all!

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A little more creepy, three and half years later?

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Small plebs, I can see now why my good friend, le Monsieur de la Mosca, supported the inexperienced young  Senator from Illinois way back in the day when we knew little about him other than that he sported a dimwitted hairplugged running mate that did not dog sled, rassle bear, or wear a brassiere.   You see, my friend is very perceptive, and seeking a strong hand in the Executive Branch in our time of trouble, he saw the inner-Generalissimo in the fresh faced Barack Obama.  He knew this guy was not going to be bothered by any such niceties as separation of powers, or heck, eveen recognition of any other powers in our triune system.

And so today, we recognize that the Monsieur’s perspicacity has won out.   The drumbeat that began with an increasingly monarchial delegation of legislative power to the President’s various bureaucratic armies at DOJ, EPA, FDA, TSA, DOE, etc. has now culminated in an unprecedented display of Caesarian flair.  

 Leveraging the work of his long expelled Democrat Congress of 2006-2010, the Emperor has now done the good work “for the people” by ignoring the Senate’s inquiries regarding the new Dodd-Frank Bank Bill-created Orwellian New-Speak-monikered Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and installing a “Czar” who will now benevolantly overlook our every credit card transaction, from your innocuous swipes at the gas station to your most illicit anonymous internet transaction. 

 Gosh forbid you should not know what you are doing with those credit cards that have been around since the early-1950’s boys and girls!   Don’t worry, though Papa-Doc Barack’s main man, deposed Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray — aka,  “The Fat Ohio Farmers’ Elliot Spitzer” — will be holding your hand every step of the way.  Just don’t you dare try to break that hand grip, though, boys and girls.

Not happy with that one questionable “recess appointment,” (made when Congress was not actually in recess!), however, Caesar Obamustus also decided he was tired of waiting for the Senate to approve his three hard left candidates to the already newsworthy National Labor Relations Board (NRLB) of Boeing Aircraft meddling fame.  Again, this unprecendented assertion of Executive power provoked questions of dicatatorial/monarchial transition across the Republic.

The real question, however, is why would an embattled President take such broad risks now, given the sordid reputation of these installed parties?  The cynical answer?  To create a political battle that will make the POTUS an aggrieved victim during an election year.  This would be a confirmation that the President believes the economy will be of little help to him in 2012, and that the “full-populist” Chavista appeal is his only angle.   Moreover, like Chavez early on in his populist socialist campaigns, the President knows he has most of the press in his pocket… at least today.  But will that be enough to carry him through to November?

Only the advancing electoral process will tell.  My bet?  The press will get sick of covering  for this kind of Executive excess.  He’ll keep the hard-liners like Paul Krugman and EJ Dionne, but some of the more traditional populist lefties will start to break from the fugue soon, and begin questioning the Emperor’s “new” prêt-à-porter selections….

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Whether it’s the current political imbroglio, or perhaps the “great news” coming out of the employment front, the dollar has decided to break back out of its recent consolidation-retrace and blast ahead nearly 75 cents on the DX Index.  Interestingly, gold and silver are not taking this big move very hard, with most of my miners down between 1.0%-2.5% (which is de minimus in our world) and even AGQ (double silver) only down about 2%.

That said, this rebound will likely last for a couple of days given my target for the dollar here at $81.50 or thereabouts, and I will likely lighten up on some of my miner holdings as a result.  I shaved a little bit of ERX yesterday and will take some more of that down as well.  One doesn’t want to be holding double-ETF’s in this environment.  I think I will be targeting around 50% cash so that I will have dry powder for when the dollar turns again.  I’ll make my moves on any retrace of the dollar today.

Best to you all.

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