Hanging In There

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While the Samurai Seven 2012 picks continue to do well, with a 7.5% annual return thus far, not all of them are rising in concert.   Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR), which has recently switched from selling shitty beer to becoming a monopoly owner of Brasilian (sic) earl assets (good choice, there), is my big winner with a 20.5% YTD return.   Ironically, my lagger, and only negative return thus far at (2.20%) down is another earl and natty producer and mover, Conoco (COP).  Much to their chagrin, they are actually forced to compete with other earl and natty gas companies in the U.S. and abroad.   I still like them, however, and their 3.7% dividend is a nice cushion here as well.

My other two strong returners of the SamSeven are in the agricultural space, John Deere (DE) and Monsanto (MON).  They are returning 12.4% and 15.2%, respectively, this year, not counting dividends.  My “stock of the year” pick, UPS, is muddling along, still trying to break that $75 ceiling and returning 2.9% before dividends thus far.

That leaves my two “precious” picks, of the SamSeven, AG and RGLD, which are treading water as well, at 3.2% and 0.6%, respectively for the year.   As you know, these two are dear to my heart, and I think, after a rough 2011, the PM’s will be ready to move out once again this year, thanks to our friends in Washington with the printing presses. 

Remember, this is an election year and the Fed’s Primary Directive, not unlike that of the StarFleet Federation is — “don’t rock the flagging boat.”  Whomever wins or loses in November, the Fed doesn’t want any of the blame to come to its door if it can help it.  They know, in the end, where their bread is buttered, and they sure don’t want to give Mr. Ron Paul any more ammo in a year when he’s got a tiny little bully pulpit.  Ironically, they can achieve that by printing like there’s no tomorrow. 

So what I’m watching for right here is the important “Line of Death” for the U.S. Dollar — at $81.50, which you may recall is where I predicted the dollar would stall and therefore set the market running.   Well, we banged up a little past that mark last week, and have since turned down.  Now we meet some important resistance at the $79.50-$80.00 level.    If the DX-Y fails there, it’ll be risk on, across the board, and I think the precious metals will be ready to take off in a much bigger way.

Until then, I’ll be wary, and doing much of nothing except perhaps trimming the sails here and there.   I hope to put up that long term monthly dollar chart this weekend,  to illustrate the importance of that “Line of Death.”

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Aside — I’m not a Gingrich fan as many of you know.  However, I have to admit, I’m baffled by the turpitude of the mainstream media in pushing this transparent re-hash of his divorce just days before an important primary election.   I mean, I almost have to think this is some kind of bizarre set up to give Newt an easy foil.

Could CNN really be that dumb?  I literally felt like I was watching an outtake of Idiocracy last night when the first question that blinking fool asked in the Presidential debate was about a 20 year old divorce battle.  Seriously CNN?  You call yourself a news organization?  Then what is The National Enquirer?

Really… almost too easy for the Newtster.  Stick a fork in the MSM, they are looking a bit overdone about now.

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