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December is not just a month for Holiday Good Cheer, drunken egg nog slopping and impulsive last minute shopping, it’s also the greatest month — seasonality wise — for that beautiful savior of Third World agronomies everywhere — Monsanto (NYSE: MON). As you long term readers may recall, MON is a long favored Jacksonian that has been undergoing a significant consolidation period, not unlike that of the recently reinvigorated gold play, AUY.
The PPT tells us that MON‘s December trading indicate an 84% positive ratio, which is significant enough. What’s more monthly returns in December are averaging +5.6% over the last 12 years, including down months. Here’s the good part — we’re down over 3.7% this month since we closed November 30th at $73.45 (closing price today — $70.72). That means if we get our traditional late month Santa Claus rally — as pointed out by my friend Woodshedder in his blog post the other day, then we could be talking close to a 10% expected return between here and the end of the month.
Now take a look at this long term weekly chart. Note how obvious our resistance level is here?
At $74.64, that line in the sand is only 9.5% away from here. Let’s make that our target, shall we? If we break through it, all well and good, because that will indicate substantial continuing momentum on this Hippie Hater. Otherwise, we have a target with a nice return for the end of the month.
In any case, I continue to think MON should be in your core holdings, until someone comes along that can compete with their deep-seeded (heh) IP portfolio and market dominance in the ag space. I don’t think that will be coming any time soon.
Best to you all, Green Revolutionaries (the good one, not the pinko one).
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Do me a favor and let me know if that illustration came out above… it’s not showing up here…
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I see it. Both the grinch and the sweet chart.
and since I’m awaiting moderation on Fly’s side I’ll post here.
From Randall of Honey Badger fame – “Pigs of Wall Street”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/15/randalls-animal-pigs-wall-street_n_836140.html
Jake!
Illustration shows perfectly sir.. covered my sold MON calls recently and kept my shares for just this reason – thank you for all.
Nice call, Jake. Thanks!
Where is it?
I can’t see the Grinch or the chart that duck sees.
I just see a I Heart Obama campaign button and a basketball player with the caption “Gator BB rules over UL Cardinals”.
You need to knock off that special Hanukkah egg nog.
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Shows up fine. What your take on Gary’s latest post?
He’s excitable sometimes.
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Senator, the Grinch showed up clear enough for the 3-year-old to take one look and scream, “That’th NOT THANTA!” as he ran for cover and the pretty chart showed up fine as well. Like Mr. H50 above, I’m just wondering what you think of our cliff-climbing, weight-lifting friend’s latest missive and how it might affect your outlook of gold and silver. Thanks!
My first pic was “Zombie Santa” but it wouldn’t post.
I’m glad now.
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I guess we’ll see what happens. I wasn’t that upset by what I was seeing in my stocks today.
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You’re tempting me to google “Zombie Santa” just to see what images that would conjure up lol! BTW, what would be your line in the sand to toss some of your stocks back into the sea and raise more cash? Love your zen-like calmness. Thanks.
Here’s the pic…
For some reason it wouldn’t “take” on my posting, so I had to switch it out.
I’m not doing anything right now…
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Oh boy, that scared him right into the safety of his bed for that desperately needed siesta that he’d been fighting against. Zombie Santa = Mom’s new best friend?
Geez, I might have to call Child Protective Services, ovah heah.
I didn’t mean for you to spring it on the lad!
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Jake- What happened with your attempted OIH etf purchase yesterday AM?
Was it done before the trading halt?
I know the old SMH is now trading in the pink sheets as Van Eck reopened the Holders with a new balancing.
I also noticed that the SMH volume was pathetic today (I think institutions left it) and the spreads not like it used to be.
On the other hand, OIH volume was closer to normal and the spreads nice and tight and the best ever (I have followed it for years). It was easy to read (not as volatile either) and I made good $$ with it.
It may be my new day trade ATM machine and bears watching with my intraday technicals.
Ironic, I was trying to buy ERX for an IRA account, and they wouldn’t let me do it.
So I got some OIH instead.
Bot ERX in the cash account.
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is your longterm bullish stance on erx or oih connected to a possible republican win in november? thnxs
No. That would make me bearish on earl. Think about it for a second.
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Well i’ve come out of retirement to follow this one trade recommendation of yours Senior Gint. I bought myself some MON this morning and look forward to it paying for christmas this year.
thanks
I’ve been lurking on MON for a while. Going to look to take a stab today.
Two links I found amusing and hope they are enjoyed here.
Randall of Honey Badger fame – ‘Pigs of wall st’
http://huff.to/e3keq4
How the Gingrich stole Christmas – from funny or die – no political leanings are implied by this post
http://huff.to/t4nTl9
POT CF MOS AGU all up big. MON not so much. what gives?
It has issues. Bumping up against a trend line, too.
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ERX – great gift, Jake. Owe you. Still long ag and exk. Not adding now but holding short term extra with some trepidation (exk)
Thanks for ERX, Senator. Still holding EXK and assorted PM stocks along with you and your mentor:)
I don’t know that he has any EXK. I’ve been working on him w. the silver juniors.
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Merry Christmas Jake.
Merry Christmas to you and your family, Jake. May you enjoy the blessed peace, joy and true meaning of the spirit of Christmas:) On our front, the little (and not so little) ones are safely tucked in bed, the presents have finally all been wrapped and everything is ready to go!
Merry Christmas and a great 2012 to you and yours, Sir!
Yours too, H5-0, Anton and Momo!
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