[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fSEjlLQcRY 450 300]

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The dollar’s off 70 cents as I type this, down below $82 again to a low we haven’t seen since mine and the Fly’s birthday on the 25th of last month.  That “chuffing” sound you hear is Ben Bernanke’s magical reverse vacuum blowing hundred dollar bills at Spain by way of behind the scenes European central bank bailout transfers.  $125 billion you say? It’s a mere bag of shells when one can print up one’s own constantly deflating sovereign currency in a zirp atmosphere.  Isn’t this fun?  Why didn’t Japan think of this??

Anyone else getting the hard stuff while it’s cheap?  Take a look at my two “T’s” — TKC and recently murdered TC for a flyer.  Of course I still love BAA, but ANV is looking very tasty and has RGLD ever really disappointed you?  On the silver side, it’s broken record time again… AG, EXK and SLW remain the nobles.  PAAS for a flyer. For those with less time, GDXJ and SIL are the ETF plays for now.

I had one of the worst Friday’s in my career this past week, dealing with a very large dollar client issue that one would have to hear to believe.  One thing I can say about my industry, there’s hardly ever a dull moment.  You guys think trading stocks is a bitch?  Try something more illiquid next time…

Best to you all.

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Unless you are living the hermit’s life, under a rock within a deep dark Paleozoic cave, you are aware that next Saturday’s NCAA Final Four College Basketball Championship will feature two Kentucky rivals in a battle to determine who will represent the state in the National Championship game. Despite being a huge fan of the (currently) nine-point underdog Cardinals, I am experiencing Zen-like calm and good feeling.

You see, like with my “What Me Worry?” New York Giants earlier this year, I never expected the Cards to get past the second round of the Big East Tournament, never mind the far more expansive NCAA Tourney.  But like my Superbowl winning Giants, the Cards have considerably outperformed my expectations.  Using a mixture of psychotically wearying man/zone defense and pure will power, they have won their last eight games in a row, taking not only the Big East Title (like eventual NCAA winners UConn did in 2011), but also beating all reasonable odds to arrive in the Final Four this weekend.

They took out Michigan State like they were a bunch of soft muppet Goldman clients, not the eventual Tournament Champion I had slated the Spartans for in my personal brackets.  They followed that win by beating an absolutely on-fire, can’t-miss-three-point-shooting Florida Gator team seemingly through psychological intimidation alone.  It was truly miraculous, and I am now happy to the point where my inborn Irish sense of karma has me looking out for fast-approaching meteorites.

Because I can’t lose now, really.  No one expected my Cards to do this well, just like no one expected the Giants to get into the playoffs in early December.  Or to beat Green Bay or San Francisco (and not have to play New Orleans again!).  Therefore I am playing with house money right now…

And guess who has to win it all this year or be seen as ultimate chokers?  Do you think maybe it’s that team with the five “sure fire” top ten draft picks? The Blue people from down the road, east of us, in little Lexington?

Can you feel the warmth of my smile from here, my friends?

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On a more serious topic, I was also  going to write about the possible Civil War brewing with regard to the Supreme Court’s coming decisions regarding the Commerce Clause and its relation to Obamacare.   However, I don’t wish to spoil my current mellow mood, so I will hold off, probably until tomorrow.  Suffice it to say — for now — that this may be the most important Supreme Court decision since the New Deal Era (error?).

More tomorrow.  Let tonight be about the (relative) innocence of college hoops.

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As for the stocks and other investments this blog is supposed to be about, well, I felt good enough about the state of the dollar and the silver market to add a significant portion of SSRI to my portfolio.   I think it’s inexpensive here, frankly, and likely trade bait at some point.   That was all I added however, as I am still bound by caution here as we approach the end of the month and the Ides of May.

My best to you all.

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A Short Introduction To Louisville Hoop, Circa 2012:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9UI18nq6J4 450 300]

 

Enjoy!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O17MA58P-QY 450 300]

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 Newton says that a body in motion remains in motion unless acted upon by another force.  Right now that treatise translates well into the action provided by our tentative bull market, perhaps best exemplified by the individual success of one CRAAPL, Inc. 

Do I trust this momentum?  Not for a minute, especially not with the struggles my belleweather precious metals stocks have been enduring — a precursor perhaps to the interest rate battles that loom on our horizon.   Will I play the momentum, however?  Of course I will, but with names that makes sense in the broader scale.

Right now, agricultural stocks are starting to make a stealth comeback… moreso those stocks who are largely designed to assist farmer’s yield.  Why?  I believe it’s because the farmer’s cost of capital has increased, despite our low interest rates, thanks to the ridiculous bull market in farm land prices.  Just in Southwestern Indiana alone, farmland that sold for $2,500 to $3,000 an acre six or seven years back is now going for well over $10,000 an acre, and in some cases being sold at auction for $14,000 an acre.  In places like Iowa, the values are coming in even higher.

All of that means that farmers need to increase yield value — even at $6.50 a bushel corn — in order to make a return.  That bodes well for fertilizer companies like  MOS and POT for example.  These are  two potential breakouts that are not quite ready for prime time, in my humble opinion. 

  Not so unready, however, is my MON-ster, which has been running nicely since the first of the year, and only recently experienced a pullback.   I think it’s the pause that refreshes, and the next stop is breaking out of this consolidating triangle (on the weekly) to take out the top of this fibonacci retrace:

  

 

Your relatively low risk stop is pretty obvious on the above chart (below $77.00).  Your upside is broad.  In the bad old days, MON got as high as $154 a share.   I think eventually it will leave even that number behind.

I think we can agree we are in a bull market– at least for the moment — even as we clamber up the Wall of Worry together, pitons digging for purchase, ropes securing us and sealing our collective fates should we drop.   If we are going to take advantage, let’s go after the stocks that have been making sense this year without making a big drunken fuss about it like CRAAPL.   That’s the ags, and I’ll have more on this subject.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5qc3qZqe38 450 300]

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I’ve been lying low, deep within the underground catacombs of my hardened cee-ment (sic) bunker, waiting for the air to change before speaking with you again.    Last week the dollar was on the edge of a knife, and it looked like it was poised to strike a blow against my precious metal position that even I, in my well-defended fortress– Haz-mat suited and full-fetal positioned– would find difficult to withstand. 

But this morning, after a 36-hour narco-nap, I decided to “up-periscope,” fully expecting to witness scenes of post-apocalyptic societal dissolution.  Instead, I found these guys scurrying about, handing out large wads of $100 dollar bills for 500 yuan a piece.

Is it possible we are just enduring one last head fake before the dollar re-asserts itself and makes mince-meat pies out of all my lovely precious metal and rare-earth positions?   It’s certainly possible.

But for now, I will revel in the respite, as Stealth-Bernank and the Chinese work out their differences and my “tell-tale” stocks  — UPS, FCX and the rare-earths (REE, MCP, AVL, QRM) move nicely here.  

If you prefer gambling to regular, gentlemen’s club smoking room type investing (UPS, COP, CMI, MON, etc), then there are two current seat-of-their-pants plays I’m watching right now —  sugar high confectionary profits in IPSU and a little-bit-nutty, a little-bit-slutty rare earth play AVL. 

I also like SSRI, here, mostly for the pricetag on its silver.

God bless, and I hope to be with you more often this week.

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I know, I know…  I’ve claimed “I’m busy” many times to you but I will do so once again.  I am truly burning the candle at both ends, Breitbart-style, and it’s going to have to stop.  I may have to take a leave of absence until I can get some of these deals through the chute over the next couple of months.  Work is literally coming through the door at an unprecedented pace, and it’s beginning to get slightly out of hand.  I’m not sure if it’s Obama Panic or Demographic Destiny, but people who own quality companies are throwing their hands up and saying “get me out” like a pack of dachshunds in a Pringles cannery. It’s never been like this in my memory, and most of my career has taken place in the warm sun of a bull market.

But it’s not like a bull market selling environment, despite the hefty buyers interest out there.  The shareholders’ optimism is no longer there.  Instead of my having to fight clients into viewing business as a cycle and not a permanent slope to heaven, now I have to “sell, sell, sell!” like Cramer on airplane glue, because the end is near, and it’s awful to behold.

I’m not going to complain, truly as there are many many buyers with cash out there — also more than I’ve ever seen.  Until that pool attenuates my job is easier than it has been in the past, despite the macroeconomic conditions.   It’s even fun.  I just hope I can make it through to the finish on all of it….

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But on the stock side, I’m munching a Prosperity Sandwich, while waiting to see if my $HUI resolves itself here.   So far, the silver precious has held up decently, even as the dollar has rebounded back above $79.  In the meantime, the $HUI stays in it’s channel (and will do so even below $500), and perhaps touches the lower edge again.  Remains to be seen.  I’m doing nothing, and I’ve still got 40% of my cash to throw at something, or maybe nothing.  It’s nice to have opportunities…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s keep our eyes open.  If the dollar cranks any higher, it could have ill effect on our miners.  Below $490 on the $HUI could be time to retract, and perhaps even edge.  Eyes front, and on the road.

Best to you all.

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Congrats to #6 and especially Mrs. #6, who did all the work on their first little bambino, let’s call her “One Sixth.”

Hopefully, this nice young couple will recognize soon that NYC is a great place for getting one’s windshield involuntarily  squeegeed for a dollar, or for getting your carbon credit fix on by taking the sweaty summer #4 train uptown instead of a cab.

For raising sweet young things, however?  Well…

Anyway, God bless and good luck, she’s beautiful.

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I’m a bit ambivalent about the precious this week.  I think we’ll continue to do well here, but I’ll probably start taking some profits this week as well.   No need to get too greedy.

As far as what I’m looking at, I’m surveying that nasty old sugar name, IPSU again.  Why?  For no other reason than that it’s taking the commodity train up again.   If it breaks through this resistance here, it might be well worth taking on a position once again:

 

My best to you all, and God bless the little children.

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