[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgRm1ISlw_A 450 300]

____________________

I’ve had some trouble getting a post out about this Newtown, CT horror show.  You might imagine why.  I have a seven year old.  He’s an outlier, and I’ve always worried about him.  Now that seems almost ridiculous, and yet…

There’s no way you can’t fall on your knees.  In grief, in relief.  In relief.  That’s wrong, I know it, but the absolute realization that something like this can happen… that it is even possible…  makes one want to put their kids into a box until they grow up.

The pain is visceral and it’s borne of impotence.  You want to strike out, make things right.  In this way you cannot even blame the illogical left with their knee jerk proscriptions against gun ownership.  It almost makes sense, given the emotional quotient.

But one has to ask what makes any sense?  Arm the teachers? Seems extreme, and perhaps too much to ask.  But what about security personnel?  One, two..? … training will be important.  Reinforced classroom doors?  Is it worthwhile?  I guess I’d have to ask if protecting our kids is worthwhile.  How much should we spend on that?  Can we maybe move the TSA budget to that arena?

I do know there are some 250 million guns extant in the U.S., and even an absolute prohibition will not keep guns out of the hands of criminals, and crazies.  Does it make sense, then, to concentrate on keeping guns out of legal hands, instead of perhaps working to better counsel — and control — the mentally ill and dangerous?

_______________________

Shockingly, or not, I am still in love with silver and gold here.  True, AG got it’s ass kicked today, malevolently, because it purchased another mine at an egregious premium.  Their loss is your gain.  Take advantage.  But wait one day before you buy.  In the meantime, SLW and SIL are great.  As is GDXJ and GDX.

Best to you all.

____________________________

 

 

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1jzs6dk4bs 450 300]

________________________________

Breaking away for a second to remind you to pay attention here.  We are headed into Santa Claus territory, and I don’t think it will be coincidental when we see the gold and silver elves coming out for their annual drunken bacchanal.

I am hoping that on Friday I will have moved a large amount of money from “here” unto “there,” and then will have some time to sport about with you, old time style, half-inebriated and full of fun.  Until then, GDX, GDXJ, and yes, even NUGT will be attractive in the Christmas season.  On the silver side, those of you who have cursed and gnashed your teeth about EXK can consider this the time to “make your bones,” or whatever other ethnic cliche you’d like to use.   AG is still my favorite silver dog, and SLW and SIL my core recommendations for the noobs.  That said, PAAS and MVG can be berry berry good to those of a speculative bent.

More speculative than any of those, however, is AAU and TC.  If you have 2% of your portfolio that you reserve for dice throwing at 3 AM in a dirty alley laden with crack whores and vein poppers, then those are your available plays.  Do not cry to me if you are blackjacked, but please remit 15% to the Salvation Army if you do bank coin.

Best to all of you, and hoping to spend many days of merry and bright with you in the latter part of this month…

____________________________

Comments »

__________________

Soon, soon I will be a plunger yet again. Morsels are looking tasty already, and I don’t think gold and silver have too much farther to go here.  There’s a lot of support for physical silver at this $31.80-ish level and I may choose to nibble there tomorrow if we get one more rip to the downside. Then stuff will be on sale like you read about.  SLW at $37?, AG at below $22? RGLD at more than 15% from recent highs? Are you kidding me? These are the times when men can be gluttonous, in a sippy-cup kind of way (small sips, gradual like).

I will have time to speak about the recent Obaminations when I’ve got ten minutes to assemble my thoughts.  Needless to say, last night was more revelation.  I think I’ve come to the reluctant conclusion that the guy is just not very bright after all.  The consistent throwing of constituency after constituency under the bus…. when will it end?  Last night, he gave up Virginia by blowing up Newport News and its naval stronghold.  Ah well, who needs those bayonets, save our own guts?

 

Maybe he’ll talk about how he hates Buckeye nuts, next? One can only hope… (for change?)

Best to you all.

__________________

Comments »

 

After tonight’s “debate,” I offer a brain re-set.  You’re welcome:

 

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpZhZAr1cQU&feature=related 450 300]

___________________________________

Look you, I don’t want to hear any shit.  Do you know what it’s like to have every client you’ve worked with over the last 36 months wanting to get out the door by Christmas? No, of course you don’t, because we’ve never had a bizarre set of economic circumstances like this before, where the difference between getting a deal done in this tax year and the next are approaching 30% of the value of a transaction.

Let me explain…  A lot of people don’t understand that, Fiscal Cliff aside, there’s already an additional 4% Obamacare tax  that’s going to be added to capital gains on any deal that has the misfortune of closing in 2013 instead of 2012.  Then there’s the possibility of the Bush-era tax cuts lapsing, and you add another nickel, minimum.  That’s nine percent more than what you’d be paying on this side of 2012, or a 60% increase in your gains tax burden.  And most of my clients are people who have close to zero basis, since they tend to be folks who started their companies, or took them over from pop at some pocket change transfer price.  So if we are talking about a $100 million dollar sale price, that’s $9 million extra you have to pay Uncle Barack next year if things stay where they are right now.

I don’t care how freaking rich you are, a nine million dollar delta is a ball sweat inducing bill that you’d want to avoid.  And that’s been the consensus of everyone I’m talking to right now.

The other problem with rising capital gains rates is they depress valuations by cutting into after tax returns on capital.  That means not only does one’s purchase price get taxed at an increasing rate, but the multiple paid on a business will be lower also.  Can you say “double whammy?”  (That’s why the public markets will get rocked if Obama wins as well. )

As a result, my life has been a nightmare as of late.  If I’m not on the road doing management meetings (with dinners, lunches, breakfasts, etc) , I’m doing back-to-back-to-back conference calls.   I’m just hoping I can get some of these guys through the funnel.  I already know they all can’t fit.  Such is life.

So I’m sick of apologizing, but please do know I’m keeping an eye on the market enough to signal to you when I think it might be time to get in or out.  Despite the fluctuations and the newest Romney Ryan positivity, I don’t think it’s time to get back into the precious in a giant way.  I think there’s gonna be a nice scare here before Turkey Day to shake some folks out, and then it’ll be time to pounce for the Santa Claus Cokefest and a Smile.

I liked TC’s move today, as I have twelve boatloads of that radioactive shit, having ingested a tonne when it dropped to the $2 level (averaging down, don’t cha know?).  I remain solid in my thinking that miner will become trade bait for some large, cash-rich insitution.  Also, RGLD just did a 5 million share offering with Goldman at $91.  I think this will knock the price down over the next couple of days, maybe even below $90.  If so, that is a huge gift, of which you should take full  advantage…

Best to you all.

___________________________________

Comments »

______________________

I guess my jaw is just going to drop every day right into November 6th  of this year.  Yesterday, I stood agog as the U.S. National  Media did not merely let slip their masques of “Objectivity” but tore them off completely in defense of their Dear Leader, The Obama.  It was like we were back in the days of “Soviet Union,” when Pravda and Tass would not only mouth whatever “truths” the Soviet leadership would set them to, but also pro-actively attack dissidents of the regime in order to discredit them. 

When our embassies in Egypt and Libya were attacked “coincidentally” on 9/11, and our Executive Branch Administration decided to respond with an apology instead of condemnation, I guess I wasn’t completely shocked when the MSM house organs (NY Times, Boston Globe, LA Times) buried the story well into their papers to clear room for important Romney/Ryan high school reportage.  What was a shock, however, was watching the press go after Mitt Romney for — very appropriately, IMHO — condemning the wrong-headedness not only of the rioting Islamacists, but of the Obama Administration that was feeling their pain.  Incredulously, I watched as the biggest media firms  in the country went after Romney in a (now confirmed) coordinated attack like he was the guy who murdered our ambassador in Libya instead of being the only Presidential candidate to take time out of his day to remark upon it.

No, what was important to the press was that Romney was condemning the Obama Administration, and everyone knows that the Main Stream Media’s number one job is to advocate for the Democrat President, right?

Right?

____________________

Meanwhile, on day four of “Jaw Dropper Week,” we hear from yet another  uncompensated (well, sorta) member of the Committee Re-elect the President Again (CREEPA) — Mr. Ben Bernanke.   Not two weeks after Mitt Romney all but said that Fed Chair Bernanke was likely selling pencils come this January, the Bearded Bandit decided to show just how far he’d go to keep his job.

In a scene that seemed cut from the classic Mike Judge movie, Idiocracy, Mr. Chairman has decided to cut loose with your sovereign currency in such a way that soon we will be purchasing extra-wide checks to accomodate the extra zeroes we’ll have to write.  And he’s not doing it in any kind of secretive “QE4” way, either.  No, he’s just going to purchase — with fake money! — US mortgage bonds, at $85 billion a month til the end of the year, and then $40 bn a month, apparently until morale improves!

It’s fucking mind-boggling, if you’ll excuse my French.  Just stutteringly mad.

We are spitting in the face of people who hold our dollars world wide.  We are saying, “See this? This hundred dollar bill?  I wipe my arse with it!  Have some!” 

“Oh, yeah… and vote Barry so I can keep my job, eh?  Thanks much.”

Anyone got a line on a wheel barrow factory I can invest in?

______________

As might be expected, gold (+2.11) and silver (+4.33) are screaming.  More analysis of the traditionals tonight, but the ETFs are your best bet at the moment (GDX, GDXJ, SIL, GLD, SLV, even AGQ and NUGT).  Go nuts, mind as well.

_______________________

 

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDnlU6rPfwY 450 300]

______________

She sends me,

If I spring a leak, she mends me.

I don’t have to speak, as she defends me.

A drunkard’s dream if I ever did seeeee ooooooone.

(Appropriate electro-banjo interestice)

_____________________________

Silver (la Lune) and gold (El Sol)  are both galloping across the skies now, impervious to my caution.   Thundering over my head, their coursers full afroth,  they say “paaah!” to my 70% position, daring me to chase my favourite (sic) miner names like some aging bobby soxer on Frank Sinatra Night at the Sands. 

I will not, however, as some option positions in the longer term department have sated my appetite for “easy dough” at the moment.  Instead I will stick to the still bargain issue lesser metals that are just now awakening to aroma of the lightly salted lightly peppered Bernanke Steaks that are being served to the market, “screw inflation”-style.

I will admit that I should have realized the printing presses would be truly whirring this week, as “the Bernank” attempts to assist “Backbone Barry” in ways that even Plugs Biden, with his literally literal literalisms and abstruse accolades cannot.  As I type, the dollar is down more than 80 cents (!!), plunging below the 50% fibonacci line that I mentioned the other day ($80.72) and now heading for the next support at $80.00 or so. 

Given the ferociousness of today’s takedown I wouldn’t be surprosed if we broke below $79, even in the near term, as we head to new lows in 2013.  Ben seems to be pulling out all the stops, as unemployment still sucks, and the only thing that will get people to think things are ok is if the market is up, up, up.    So be it, but just keep in mind we are playing with interest rate fire here.  That’s why I like the commodities more than the stocks here.  It’s only a matter of time.

I see my perspicacious friend Le Monsieur has already taken my “Cripple Creek” stock TC as his latest addition, so I won’t spend much time lauding it (you’ve probably already bought it, haven’t you?).   Know that this stock truly was crippled, unfairly, IMHO, by a bad financing timing decision.  It can get back to $5 (200 day EMA) very easily from here, I believe.

On other non-PM’s, I like TCK here, also beaten down like an ugly mule.  The nice thing about this metal mining sector is how you can make tonnes of money on beaten down stocks in it for about four out of the 52 weeks of the year.  I think we may be in one of those periods. 

Feel free to ask, I’ll probably say yes, but ask anyway.

Best to you all. 

 

Comments »