Wednesday, December 7, 2016
Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

QE: Quantitative Election



After tonight’s “debate,” I offer a brain re-set.  You’re welcome:


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Look you, I don’t want to hear any shit.  Do you know what it’s like to have every client you’ve worked with over the last 36 months wanting to get out the door by Christmas? No, of course you don’t, because we’ve never had a bizarre set of economic circumstances like this before, where the difference between getting a deal done in this tax year and the next are approaching 30% of the value of a transaction.

Let me explain…  A lot of people don’t understand that, Fiscal Cliff aside, there’s already an additional 4% Obamacare tax  that’s going to be added to capital gains on any deal that has the misfortune of closing in 2013 instead of 2012.  Then there’s the possibility of the Bush-era tax cuts lapsing, and you add another nickel, minimum.  That’s nine percent more than what you’d be paying on this side of 2012, or a 60% increase in your gains tax burden.  And most of my clients are people who have close to zero basis, since they tend to be folks who started their companies, or took them over from pop at some pocket change transfer price.  So if we are talking about a $100 million dollar sale price, that’s $9 million extra you have to pay Uncle Barack next year if things stay where they are right now.

I don’t care how freaking rich you are, a nine million dollar delta is a ball sweat inducing bill that you’d want to avoid.  And that’s been the consensus of everyone I’m talking to right now.

The other problem with rising capital gains rates is they depress valuations by cutting into after tax returns on capital.  That means not only does one’s purchase price get taxed at an increasing rate, but the multiple paid on a business will be lower also.  Can you say “double whammy?”  (That’s why the public markets will get rocked if Obama wins as well. )

As a result, my life has been a nightmare as of late.  If I’m not on the road doing management meetings (with dinners, lunches, breakfasts, etc) , I’m doing back-to-back-to-back conference calls.   I’m just hoping I can get some of these guys through the funnel.  I already know they all can’t fit.  Such is life.

So I’m sick of apologizing, but please do know I’m keeping an eye on the market enough to signal to you when I think it might be time to get in or out.  Despite the fluctuations and the newest Romney Ryan positivity, I don’t think it’s time to get back into the precious in a giant way.  I think there’s gonna be a nice scare here before Turkey Day to shake some folks out, and then it’ll be time to pounce for the Santa Claus Cokefest and a Smile.

I liked TC’s move today, as I have twelve boatloads of that radioactive shit, having ingested a tonne when it dropped to the $2 level (averaging down, don’t cha know?).  I remain solid in my thinking that miner will become trade bait for some large, cash-rich insitution.  Also, RGLD just did a 5 million share offering with Goldman at $91.  I think this will knock the price down over the next couple of days, maybe even below $90.  If so, that is a huge gift, of which you should take full  advantage…

Best to you all.


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  1. Sir Robert Hooke

    Christ Jake. Waited 16 days for you to post. Post more often #forfucksakes.

  2. Juice

    That is all part of Obama’s el grande plan: to get all you money-making deal-makers to jam-cram your deals in before the new year, beefing up econ stats before re-erection day, so it looks like business is freaking booming.

    I would have never believed that Jake would sell his soul for a pile of Ben Franklins and help Obama land 4 more years.

  3. tuck9899

    jake…you gota do more posts…i’m not going to make it through this crap without help

  4. DMG

    Biden is the gift that keeps on giving.

    • JakeGint

      Yeah, I was thinking about doing a liveblog on the thing, but didn’t get home in time to watch it from the beginning… I was half an hour behind on the DVR.

      Biden sure was bizarre though, especially in the beginning… Drugs?


  5. The Fly

    Classic Biden pic


  6. sspiff

    I have been amazed at the lack of MSM press coverage of the new cap. gains 0bamacare 3.8% tax increase. My brother and I were close to selling a commercial re. complex (with 2 other partners) we own. Can’t get it done this year. My brother wants to wait till the election dust settles now. He is also selling his house in Woodside Ca. That won’t close this year either.

  7. Mr. Cain Thaler


    • Jakegint

      What a botoxed to death, hair-plugged, teeth perodided dufus. Reminded me of one of those scenes from Brazil where the main character’s mother is getting her face stretched…. too baroque.


  8. Belly of the Beast
    Belly of the Beast

    Best Wishes, Jake.

    Some old time 0 gaffes:

  9. Mr.Partridge

    When I read the title of the blog for some reason it look to me like:
    QE: Quantitative Erection…..
    jeez it was a long day at the office…

  10. MX2101

    I say back off on Jake, unless you are joking. He is obviously hugely busy. His contribution here is most valuable, and sincerely appreciated by me, and many others, I think.

  11. Baron the Barbarian, Saint Clause, Herzog bei Wynnsor

    (Blind Read Any says)

    Glad to see some balance here at IBC (Jake!).

    I’d say more, but you see, I still like to check in at the V.Kingdom, so I’ll just fire a couple shells from the nose bleed armament bleachers and light some sparklers:

    “What you said.”

  12. Blitzed

    Hey Jake, Here’s hoping you post more often but I understand you have to pay the bills.

    Check out this Biden pic.

    Pretty creepy.

  13. mhass33

    Hey jake what do you do for work?