__________________________________
We may get a pullback here, or we may push right through to my target of $1227 on the $SPX. As usual, the Trannies ($TRAN) or “Transports” if you want to be “Charles Dow Formal,” will give us an idea of where the market is headed early on.
The following weekly, has some good news and some troubling news. The main positive appears to be that the Trannies, like the previously featured $SPX weekly, have based on the long term 61.8% golden ratio level. This is an extremely strong level of support, and we are headed up off of it, and over the 200-week EMA:
The not so appealing news is that we are beneath the 13-week and 34-week EMAs are above us, and we came up just short of the that first line today. That may mean we are in for some further consolidation here.
If that is the case, and we drop back down to that 61.8% fib one last time, I will be loading up on my favorite “Eddie Izzard stock” — UPS.
As for today, I did nothing, thought I thought about grabbing some more SLW at “end of day.” I just didn’t get back in time to do so. Sorry.
Best to you all.
_________________________
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
OEW Recap:
“Despite the short term negative divergence the market continues to go sideways working off the overbought condition. This is generally a good sign. Short term OEW charts remain positive unless the SPX breaks through 1170. Short term support remains at the 1187/1176/1168 pivots. Short term resistance is at the low 1200′s, then the 1222/1240 pivot ranges.”
It’s going to be a bullish pattern that precipitates black Thursday.(One that fails miserably) Ironically, what will make the vast majority believe the bear market is over is exactly the thing that will lead them to slaughter.
However, if we don’t have black Thursday soon, I may poo on someones chest. Possibly a wild bull that I will capture in my 2 door sports car.
agreed. the senator is right.
I plan to be cautious here. The dollar appears to be strengthening now. It’s probably a good time to back off a bit.
Hey Jake,
If you would. I know you’ve probably thought about this shit, at least more than I have. On the surface Herman Cain’s 999 seems to make sense to me. But I’ve heard some say it’s a break for the rich, while penalizing the poor. I have to admit, part of what appeals to me is the simplification of the tax code. So maybe it’s the impossible dream.
Thoughts please?
Pie in the sky … Opens the door to a national sales tax and rates that can be raised unless barriers are attached to prevent abuse … Necessities must be excluded otherwise it’s regressive.
Thanks Tea,
I do like the simplification though.
I think it’s a nice idea… It scraps the corrupt, loophole filled tax code we have now (40,000 pages of buddy fixes and counting).
The major problem with implementing any national sales tax, however, is not the regressivity (that can be taken care of by setting limits, etc.), but the fact that you are de facto instituting a “Value Added Tax” (V.A.T.), which will be just another tool of the tax-eaters in the wrong hands.
The true “simple” solution would be to impose a flat tax with no deductions save for charitable giving. This is not so “simple” however because of the number of oxen that would be gored — especially from those in the legal and accounting community.
_________
So? The IT industry put thousands probably millions out of work, even some of themselves. You shouldn’t not move forward for those reasons, however they comprise a more formidable lobby. But imagine the efficiences and savings…mind blowing- IRS shrinkage.
OT: may have heard this already- http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75976146/
Cain didn’t rise to the occasion in last night’s debate. He didn’t necessarily hurt himself but he didn’t take a needed step forward. He didn’t seem to have depth. His defense of his 9-9-9 plan was weak. The 9-9-9 plan could one day become the 13-25-19 plan or worse. There are no safeguards. Future governments could raise this with malice.
Perry is done. Bachmann understands policy but she doesn’t come across as a leader. She gave some really good answers. Gingrich is the professor. He needs to be in the next administration.
Romney, again, looked presidential. He isn’t necessarily my choice but he never faltered, never gave a bad answer. He looks like a leader among division heads. This country needs a leader. I don’t doubt that Romney will lead.
Obama is likely about to be neck deep in multiple scandals that he won’t be able to wipe off. It will take a complete moron on the other side to lose the upcoming presidential elections. Which is entirely possible.
You give them Romney and you give them the gun with which to shoot you in the head.
Or, more appropos — you take the Obamacare gun out of our hands.
How can anyone campaign against government tyranny when their candidate made mandatory purchase a cornerstone of his administration.
Sorry, the statist is not for me. I will hold my nose and vote for him if I have to, just like I did for the Fossil-RINO we ran last time.
But I won’t be expecting different results.
_______
wtf you’ve come full circle…i thought you were all about what a solid business guy romney is and what not.
Romney is certainly a solid business guy. He’s a solid business guy also dreamed up and implemented statewide mandatory health care in MA. It’s currently a disaster, too.
We need someone who says “no, more top-down inflexible fucking gov’t is NOT the answer to that problem.”
He loses on that metric.
________
He also believes in man-made global warming.
Probably why Fat Man endorsed him.
_______
Understand I’m not endorsing Romney. But as a candidate he appears presidential. The populace will identify with that. At least he has leadership qualities unlike Obama.
Chris Christie makes great You Tube fodder as he *rightly* attacks unions. Aside from that he is just a liberal state RINO. Just like Romney.
I am afraid this country is too far gone in its love for statism. It is comfortable in its loss of freedoms. The reality is that a conservative is unlikely to get the nom.
Bachman, Santorum, Cain, Gingrich, Paul and Johnson all understand that government is the problem and not the solution. I’m too cynical to believe any of them can get elected. You’re right, Romney thinks government is an answer, if not the answer.
I too will hold my nose and vote for anyone running against Obama. But if it is Romney we will be sorely disappointed as he will continue, and possibly expand, the big government ideals.
It’s a mess.
and a trade war with China:
From CSMonitor.com
“His [Romney] plan to force reciprocity in trade on China runs counter to a Republican tradition of generously keeping US markets open while tolerating many trade barriers in poorer nations in hopes they will grow into responsible free-trade partners and export markets.
But China is not just any poor country, given its demographic girth and world market-skewing ways. Estimates vary but as much as 40 percent of US manufacturing jobs may have been lost to China since it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) a decade ago.
And the Republican Party, too, has not been its old free-trade self because of the tea party. That loose band of America-first conservatives champions a brand of economic isolationism. And Romney is eager to win its endorsements.
The former Massachusetts governor is also bucking that part of the GOP helped by donations from the big corporations doing well in China – corporations that moved many factories out of the US. These firms have long had a loud voice in trade policy.
If Romney’s idea is embraced by other major GOP candidates, that could push Mr. Obama to get tough on China. Already 6 out of 10 Americans disapprove of the president’s economic stewardship. And Democrats in Congress have long been eager to punish China for its trade practices, especially the manipulation of its currency that lowers the prices of its exports and enables it to outsell its competitors.
No matter who wins the White House in 2012, China could end up in a giant trade battle with the US – with unforeseen consequences for world commerce. Yet any president who raises trade barriers – even in the name of free trade – runs the risk of repeating the mistake of the 1930s, when many nations closed their trade borders during the Great Depression only to help prolong it.
Many American companies say they could compete with Chinese firms – both in global markets and even inside China – if Beijing only adopted the same kind of free-trade policies as the US. While China does enjoy lower wages and fewer environmental rules, these US firms say they can compete well in workplace efficiency and technical advantages, thus creating jobs in the US.
China justifies its trade-restricting policies as a way to lift more of its 1.3 billion people out of poverty. It is not willing to adopt US-style policies for fear of creating worker unrest and jeopardizing the Communist Party’s rule.”
For the record, I don’t buy into the “we can compete based on efficiency and technical advantages” … Don’t tell me, show me!
BTW, Romney should get credit for some of that 40% of mfg jobs that went to China while he was practicing at Bain Capital LLC.
http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/09/mitt-romney-bain-capital-debate
LOOKS LIKE THIS IS AN OOPS DAY FOLKS…CRASH INTO CLOSE THEN BLACK THURSDAY! This is the final call for black thursday. I swear.
It better be. You might soon be my first banned guest if you continue boring me to tears.
________
Quite ungentlemanly. Good day to you sir.
You’re a ‘tard. Back to the short bus.
Your sense of humor is non-existent.
It was funny the first seven times.
____
You give her too much credit.
This is my final Black Thursday call…If this market is down more then 3% tomorrow, I would like an gentlemanly type of apology.
I understand I’m on the razors edge of being banned from this fine establishment so I will keep the funny one liners to a minimum. However, I will say DMG has about as many good jokes as he does positive percentage points on his stock positions. Im quite confident in saying those positions are most probably negative. If not so today, then most certainly after Black Thursday.
Sold GDX and SLV for a nice gain in the pre-market pop. Cash for now.
Still holding…. you should not robot-follow Gary on everything. Use your own market judgment… and WATCH THE DOLLAR.
______
Jake,
I’m not blind following, but I think I will follow the dollar, which is now on day 18 of a cycle that runs 18 to 28 days trough to trough. So if it’s approaching the bottom of the cycle, I think it’s likely to bounce pretty soon.
I will say I do like cycle theory because I think being on the right part of the cycle increases the probability that the trade will work.
C’mon… Gary is constantly revising those cycle counts.
You’re far better off taking what the market will give you…
______
I think the cycles are a good risk control. He does revise them and the timing is not exact, but it is a good guide for when a rally is getting long in the tooth or when to expect a reversal. One thing Gary is not good at is maximizing profits. Partial sells would help immensely but I think he needs to dumb things down a bit. A majority of his audience are very green.
Treu.
No diss on Gary, he’s great, AND a great person, if you ever get to meet him.
He is truly THAT earnest in real life.
_______
Also the dollar is pretty much sitting on the 200 day and I did get out of GDX @ 57.88 and SLV @ 32.11 for a gain of 5% of the port in less then a week. That’s as good as I’ve done in a while.
Good sir, you host a fine blog, so be it. And you frequent a fine flipper, aka the Rock, aka the pumping iron gold Old Turkey. I have waded onto you lawn, a real life rich as fuck real hedgie, to humbly inform you that you be drawing your fib ratio retracement levels upside down. Yes, heinous. As pedantic as to post-it note it on your blog – such a reader am I. Hats off to you sir for having ridden the wild buck, a fine silk-stitched featherdown quilt under your A-hole for the next leg I am wishing you. The Hulk.
I draw ’em both ways. Bottom to top and top to bottom. There’s a method to my madness.
Thanks for gamma-raying by.
__________
holy sheisse, looks like buying the XG blood last week would’ve been a nice idea.
Picked up a bunch at $7.40 yesterday.
My cost avg is still $9.27, howsoever.
I fortunately owned XRA which bequeathed me XG so I’ve always been pretty good there. Still, once it went down under $6 i knew i should have grabbed some more. AAU has given me Eli Manning happy feet.
Follow your heart, Frodo.
_____
If my heart wasn’t buried beneath a Sisyphian rock dubbed AAU, i might have.
Don’t cry for me, Argentina.
The truth is, I never left you.
All through my wild days…
My mad existance…
I kept my promise…
So keep your distance….
(The above was completely memorized at about eleven years old, from tv commercials selling the (then) new Broadway play “Evita,” starring Ms. Patti Lupone.)
Back then, we only had about six channels, total.
____________
1980ish … that would make you a Woodstock baby (summer of 69′) and your parents hippies, LOL … not to mention 42 yo and approaching the 47.5 cutoff yourself in a few years … I’ll mark my calender for 2017.