[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTduy7Qkvk8 450 300]

__________________________________

We may get a pullback here, or we may push right through to my target of $1227 on the $SPX.   As usual, the Trannies ($TRAN)  or “Transports” if you want to be “Charles Dow Formal,” will give us an idea of where the market is headed early on.

The following weekly,  has some good news and some troubling news.  The main positive appears to be that the Trannies, like the previously featured $SPX weekly,  have based on the long term 61.8% golden ratio level.  This is an extremely strong level of support, and we are headed up off of it, and over the 200-week EMA:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The not so appealing news is that we are beneath the 13-week and 34-week EMAs are above us, and we came up just short of the that first line today.   That may mean we are in for some further consolidation here.

If that is the case, and we drop back down to that 61.8% fib one last time, I will be loading up on my favorite “Eddie Izzard stock” — UPS.

As for today, I did nothing, thought I thought about grabbing some more SLW at “end of day.”  I just didn’t get back in time to do so.  Sorry.

Best to you all.

_________________________

 

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD5nG2jEVgc&feature=related 450 300]

________________________________

The Futures markets in both stocks and commodities is telling us we’re in store for a candy-coated day tomorrow in the markets, all Yom Kippur expiations aside.   Many a times I’ve heard “Sell on The (Jewish) New Year and buy back on Yom Kippur” as tradition dictated that many of our Tribal brethren would be out of the market for that week.

I think that may be a bit of an old fashioned play (not many of my Hebraic trader pals took off for the entire week of “the Holidays” and Yom Kippur fell on Saturday this year anyway), but it’s still useful as a historical marker and perhaps an “excuse” for people to come out guns a blazing on that first day after All Sins Have Been Elided.

What better time to start stacking venalities up again for next year, nu?

Coincidentally or not, the current bullish outlook for the market synchs with some longer term market work I was updating this weekend.  For instance, this following SPX chart looks at the Fibonacci levels of the last four years, beginning with the October highs of 2007 as “the high Fib” and the March lows of 2009 as “the low Fib.”

Note how we launched all the way back to the 61.8% retrace in April ’10,  before selling off hard to the 38.2% fib line in July of that same year?  Then we had one more run to 61.8% before retracing briefly once more and finally breaking the bonds of the golden ratio (again, 61.8%) in November of ’10.

Note however, that we never bounced all the way back to the October ’07 highs?  That’s because we’re in a bear market cycle, my skepticons, and the bad news is we ain’t done yet.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t still have fun times, even if they grow increasingly scantier, right?  So let’s look at where this current selloff has based since this summer shall we?  Well, I’ll be kippered (no Hebrew) if it isn’t the 50% fib line providing support!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I think that given the current position of the weekly stochastics (i.e., “oversold”), we will likely get a nice “Euroliquidity” blast here, quite possibly taking us all the back to that 61.8% golden ratio one last time at $1227 on the above chart.

As a result, I plan to continue with my large QLD position and perhaps even “enhance” it with a little TNA, here.  I will skinny my SKFlles to a mere nominal position as I still do not trust the banks, but will also eschew all other negative-minded ETF’s for now.  I will likely also continue adding back to my silver and gold miner hordes, mostly through GDX, GDXJ and SIL, with opportunistic forays into SLW, EXK, AG and RGLD.

I reserve the right to change this direction on the turn of a dime, however, if things do not play out as Signor Fibonacci has directed.

In addition, later this week, I will attenuate this chart so you can see some more specific targets for the upcoming “deluge.”  And yes, folks, it’s still coming.  And time is growing short.

My best to you all.

________________________________________

 

 

Comments »

Not Ready for the Rubber Match, Obviously

___________________________________
The good news is that we should get a really nice bounce here in the next couple of days, and perhaps as early as tomorrow morning. The bad news is that I think we’ll very likely drop another 50 points on the S&P, and may drop as much as 90-150 before we get that rebound.

Here’s what I’m looking for on the $SPX — the only index that really matters here, although one could make a case for shorting the Cubes (QQQ) tomorrow morning as well, as it has yet to drop like it’s brethren.  I think that it’s very likely we get a quick broken elevator tomorrow to 1050, minimum.   If momentum really picks up, it might even drop as much as 90 to the second (red) line here:

 

 

And yes, even 950 is a possibility here, if the momentum gets all ragey to the point of the Friday employment numbers.  I really don’t expect that however, as we are egregiously oversold here.   I will be loosing my SKF, TZA and ERY to the trade winds as we visit these levels.  I may keep a base of the Skiffles, however.

Another reason I see the downspike continuing is that the dollar doesn’t seem to be done here, after busting through that resistance at $79 on the index.   I think the next target is the 50% retracement here:

 

Important to realize here, on this dollar index, however, is that price is finally through the 200 week EMA again, and we have the 13-week EMA finally crossing back over the 34-week EMA, with both on the upswing.   This is not good news for either the market or our precious metal friends, girls and boys.

Get your helmet.  Get two helmets and sit on one.   Protects against land mines.

Best to you, and take good care.

_______________________________________

Comments »

                           Nom Nom Nom
__________________________________________________
Here’s why I’m eating sammitches.  Watch that dollar, it’s still overbought… and I can’t tell if the Trannies, and especially United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] (their leader, as I’ve mentioned), is leading the SPX, or vice versa.

FWIW, it’s supposed to work — according to Dow Theory — with the Trannies leading.   Let’s see what we can see on a weekly basis.   First SPX, looking very indecisive:

Now, have a look at United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] , which has shown great relative strength these last few weeks…

And last, most curious of all… the Dow Jones $TRAN Index  itself … curiously, already above its 200 week -EMA.   To stay?  I know not… hence, my sammitch eating:

I hope to have more tomorrow for you… including a closer look at the dollar, which remains ridiculously overbought.   I am staying with everything as of this evening, however, including [[TBT]] and all my $HUI friends.  

Best to you all.

____________________________________

Comments »

[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMjAf8Nwohs 450 300]

_____________________________

No, I’m not speaking of Mssr. Le Fly counting his Broken Robot Coin in his Counting House, whilst tossing flaming egg-nogs at his trader servant, Mssr. Le Cratchet.

I’m talking about the classic The Year Without  A Santa Claus double production numbers from those brothers of Sun and Snow, the Heat and Cold Misers.

This piece is actually a cover by Big Bad Voodoo Daddy (an RC favourite, no doubt).   While I prefer Dick Shawn’s Snow Miser in the original version, I have to give the overall production medal to BBVD, as they are large, bad, magical, and also your father.    Besides, Heat Miser is a mite too drag queenish in the original…

As I suspected, after a month’s worth of work,  the market [[SPX]] tipped over the 50% fibonacci line today at $1121.50 or so, and is now seemingly out of the box like a busted robot and headed to $1227, where awaits our Golden Ratio of 61.8%.   As I’ve mentioned, I think we will eventually get there, but not before a pullback, which could be quite gland-challenging.  

With [[TBT]] breaking out quite convincingly here, equities have been put on watch that their discount rates will continue to increase.   As well,  the dollar pullback, as shown by DXY and [[UUP]] today has also been de minimus.    Maybe all the rules of finance will continue to be suspended in honor of Santa and Rudolph, but I wouldn’t bet my Christmas gelt on it.   

That’s why I haven’t yet jumped in the molten gold pool yet, either, as appetizing as Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] are looking today.   I could be wrong, but I don’t think the dollar is done shagging with us yet.   No real worries, though, my Pagans.   Santa Ben will soon take up his ink stamping device and all fans of the continued mass portraiture of the Inventor of Electricity will be appeased.

 _____________________

May all your families have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, even if it may be Pagan, or whatever.   It’s all about the kids, and what you make of them in the end, anyway.  

Best to you all, and thanks for your well wishes and support in 2009.

__________________________

Bonus Clip, Humour Division:

[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6yUCbqAGrg 450 300]             

_________________________

Comments »

______________________

This late in the cycle it may be fun to be heedless, but I’d rather be hedged and sucking down vanilla egg-nogs and Weller’s Green Label bourbon (have you tried, this “plain-vanilla” egg-nog yet? — It’s ambrosial, if plain vanilla ghey).

I’ve cautioned before that I don’t know how we continue rocket-ship riding no-landing-chute style with the greenback advancing against the other fake currencies and our banking sector continuing to silently implode in mushroom cloud of unpaid mortgage invoices and increasing unemployment levels.  With this new job-killer healthcare bill monster on the horizon, only a “Christmas Miracle” will serve to get us much farther up the road.  Apologies in advance to the various Wile. E. Coyote “Soopha Genius” types, and their Acme- Brand ENIAC Soopah-Computers.

Here’s the latest on our [[BKX]] Philly Bank Index chart:

I said that blue line would be support until it wasn’t and it held on the first and second touches.   Problem is, now we’ve got a breach of the 200 day EMA, and you can see we’re having trouble re-penetrating from the under side.

Here’s my other concern.   We’ ve been having tons of trouble penetrating this 50% fib on the [[SPX]] weekly.   You can see where my target lay…

If you are short term scalping, Merry Christmas, go nuts.    In my humble opinion, however, this is no time to be contemplating long term cliff dives.

Off to chase more last-minute ephemera.    Best to you all.

Comments »