[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bc80tFJpTuo&feature=related 450 300]

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I’ve never been abashed by my love for the Trannies, nor my love for Charles Dow, who employed them to great effect in his famous theory.  Some of us were dismayed to the see the Trannies pulling back while the rest of the market soared.  My contention is the Trannies were just leading, and took their pause first.

Note this weekly Tranny chart which shows the sector sticking the landing on the 13-week EMA, and showing stochastic signs of a rebound:

 

Now check out the action on my favourite Tranny of them all… Ms. UPS!

 

 

And here’s the daily, which also says, “come to supper.”

 

 

I think we are about to take off again, overall market wise… but maybe not before our Transport lovelies have blazed the path.  My best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTduy7Qkvk8 450 300]

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We may get a pullback here, or we may push right through to my target of $1227 on the $SPX.   As usual, the Trannies ($TRAN)  or “Transports” if you want to be “Charles Dow Formal,” will give us an idea of where the market is headed early on.

The following weekly,  has some good news and some troubling news.  The main positive appears to be that the Trannies, like the previously featured $SPX weekly,  have based on the long term 61.8% golden ratio level.  This is an extremely strong level of support, and we are headed up off of it, and over the 200-week EMA:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The not so appealing news is that we are beneath the 13-week and 34-week EMAs are above us, and we came up just short of the that first line today.   That may mean we are in for some further consolidation here.

If that is the case, and we drop back down to that 61.8% fib one last time, I will be loading up on my favorite “Eddie Izzard stock” — UPS.

As for today, I did nothing, thought I thought about grabbing some more SLW at “end of day.”  I just didn’t get back in time to do so.  Sorry.

Best to you all.

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*Note* — this was supposed to go out last night, but my posts would not save in this W-Press format last night.  My apologies.

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This good morn, I have my good squire– Ser Hasty Bottome– buckling on the last of my plate, including bascinet, gorget, grieves and curaisse.   I plan to wait out what appears to be an approaching “incident” in said plate and helm, thereby preventing my good-self from the whistling death of a well-placed morning starre or broad-axe.

Many of  you know that I use the Trannies as my dog-whistle “tell” for approaching calamity, and whilst I cannot make for certain if what approaches is the blackest of knights (sic) or the fairest of maidens, I can tell you that Ser Tran of Sporte is signaling some change in the air for us all.  Behold, yon daily rollover:

It seems quite certain that Ser Tran’s destrier hath overrun the 20-day EMA which bodes increasing dire that we shall meet once again with yon 50-day EMA (as noted) or werse!

Note the confluence of the 200-day EMA with yonder long term support line.  Coincidence, methinks?   Not verily, when one considers the weekly scrolls of magery:

Oh, blackest Wizard of Fibonacci!  What ill spells do you cast that thou longest term resistance foretells an imminent roll-over in Ser Tran of Sporte’s valiant charge? 

(turns away, bites gauntlet in shuddering grief)

And fie upon you, as yon monthly Parchment of Peregrination proves all too lucidly that your wizardly tricks have truly brought us to the final flourish of the “V” —  whether for Valiant Victory or Vanquished Villein (sic) is not yet clear.   I do believe the monthly provides ample targets for lance, bow and blade, however.  Behold!

Yon weekly and monthly parchments may yet tell the tale, my favoured small folk.   Be wise with your food stores and be ready to run to the safety of your lord’s keep should this ceiling be formidable in the near term.  Ser Tran’s level of 5,000 looks to be first tidings should we fall here.

Be well.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzRCdKbtBYo&feature=more_related 450 300]

The Good Doctor

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Looks like the dollar is finally bouncing here, after a couple of weeks of straight hind-mammary sucking.  This will probably also give the market that respite for which you’ve been searching these past crazy weeks.  

As you know I use few lodestones to guide my way here, and a major guide for me is the U.S. dollar, as we’ve discussed.   It’s rare you’ll see the dollar rise and the markets ascend along with it in a weak economic environment like the one we’re experiencing right now.    More likely, any uptick you are seeing in the stock market is a panic move by investors seeking somewhere to hedge them against eroding value of the greenback.  Consequently, a dollar upsurge ought to dampen that enthusiasm.

Take this week to take something off the top, and perhaps look for some bargains– preferably in the precious metal or emerging market sphere.   I’d say ag too, but it’s unclear whether ag will cool down in this “corn prices as high as an elephants eye” environment.  

The Trannies are another “tell” for me, as I like to think I keep an eye on the Dow Theory tells as well.   Let’s be straight up — the Trannies have been performing well this year, and that’s one reason I’ve remained obstinately bullish even through the dire predictions of late summer.  

But even the Transports will have to rest off this strong recent move, and what better place than here at the April highs?   You can see the mini-cup formation as it’s shaping up right now on the weekly:

As you can see, Signor Fibonacci  still smiles on our Transports, and this pullback will likely not take us anywhere below the 61.8% golden ratio limit.  In fact, you can see that despite the slightly overbought RSA and the turning slow stochastics, the Transports are still under heavy accumulation here.

So take a week, fly a kite, stuff a turkey (for practice), make your pet goat a lobster costume for Halloween… whatever.   This may be a week to be out of the market.  

In the meantime, I will be looking at some Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR) for apres the bull back.   I love me that Bra-zillion Earl, with its Bra-zillion barrels stored safely below the South Atlantic Sea.  

No worries, I shall have other suggestions as well.   For now, you might consider a spin in the FAZ-mobile.   And consider the source… it’s been a long time since I’ve shorted banks, but this week may be the time…

Best to you all.

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You probably remember this post from the last Thursday  where I posited that the $TRANNIES and their superstar leader $UPS were on the cusp of either breakout or break down.

Here was Thursday last’s potential bull flag on the UPS weekly chart that I thought might bode well:

Well today’s action may have “told the tale,” as good earnings news from UPS seems to have incurred one of it’s biggest single day moves in a year.   Look at the breakout from the handle pattern now;

Next stop is $65 and then some pull-back as per the mind of The PPT.   I think pullbacks on this belleweather should be bought however, as this is a significant move, and augers well for the late summer and early Fall market fireworks.

My best to you all.

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“Heart Attack on a Plate” — Nom! Nom! Nom! Nom!

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Seared, medium rare dry-aged New York Strip (12 oz) is very good for a special occasion.  As are gargantuan prawns with hot hot blazing hot chunky horseradish cocktail sauce.  As are “tomatahs and motzz” (sic) w. heirlooms and hand made mozzarella. 

And let’s not forget a flagon of ruby red claret to wash it all down.

But only every once in a while, or that stuff’ll kill ya.

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Speaking of “you only live once,” (I know you just said it), I think that’s what we’re looking at here in this late summer coiled up rocket rally.  It may flare out and die, but I think it’s just as likely to continue to unfold into the early autumn (!!), and here’s why…

We’ve talked sentiment, and it was hang over the banister and puke ugly here about two weeks back.  As ugly as it’s been since before the March ’09 phoenix run.    Sentiment is still bearish — note how many skeptics there are, even among the storied stock pundocracy? 

We’ve talked dollar, and it continues to melt here.  Down another 22 cent (sic) today, to $83.43, I don’t think we see relief til at least $82– the 200 day EMA.

Now let’s talk our market leading Trannies ($TRAN).   They continue their stealthy moves after the non-confirmation of the February lows a few weeks back.   Now the weekly has them taking out a significant fib line — 61.8% — after bouncing at the 50% retrace.

If we hold above that fib line this week, we could be heading all the way back up to the top again on this coil explosion.

And let’s not forget the Grandaddy (Mammy?) Trannie — UPS, the Men in Brown.  This is another long term hold of mine, and it’s like XOM or CHD — always reliable.  Check how it’s testing the handle formation here, and keep an eye on where it goes.   Given the similar stochastic formulation to the $TRAN above, I see a similar breakout coming:

In other news, the PM’s just stood there, which is fine, and MON is busting the heck out, up another 4.5% to $54.61.  I may have to look at this one again for you, with gladness in my heart for those desperation buys in the low fitties and high fowties (sic).

I’ll be busy all day tomorrow, but will try to check in.  Best to you.

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