_______________________
While nothing is yet set in stone, two big precious metal “tells” are indicating that, POG and POS, aside, we may have braved the gauntlet of the recent harsh pullback in the sector, and could be looking at a resumption of the secular bull.
I know this is slightly contorversial, as I am gainsaying a friend and mentor, Mr. Gary Savage of the SmartMoneyTrader, whom I respect and esteem at levels equal only to our own beloved Monseiur Le Docteur Le Fly and the crew down at The PPT. Gary believes we are going to test at least the $1044 level on the POG, and quite possibly have nother retest of the $350-375 levels on the $HUI.
While I often find myself in agreement with his fine logic, I am not so sure he has his cycles right this time. My current charts look to be showing something more promising:
{Jake Closes Deal in Interrum — “And There Was Much Rejoicing!}
You probably also remember this [[GDX]] chart from the last time I posted it. Well, we’ve tested the 61.8% retrace again this week, and held serve. About 15 more cents, and we’ll be back above the 34-week moving average. Whatever the case, I think this bodes well for the larger miners going forward:
Last but not least, our old friend the dollar. The weekly view, seen from our proxy [[UUP]] seems to indicate a red doji on intermediate volume and (mostly) declining stochastics:
Note also, price level has reached the top of the “consolidation zone.” The week ahead will tell us if the dollar is just resting, or getting ready to lock back into it’s secular bear cave.
Best to you all, my scurvy swabbies.
_______________________________
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Indeud.
Yeah, I’m with you on this one. I think Le Savage got shaked & baked by his cycles analysis.
Whatever that link was, it didn’t show up…
_______
“Is that a catchphrase or epilepsy?”
“SHAKE AND BAKE!”
Jakester,
I’m no technician, but the falling MACD doesn’t support your thesis. It’s looking like spring 08, non? Plus RSI turning down. I don’t see it.
I think he sees the downward momentum trailing off and the MACD weekly starting to flatten a bit showing the power of the sell off is falling off. I have RSI 7 that I watch on weekly charts and most of my mining stocks are now flashing buy on the weekly charts. Not saying this is always the best indicator, but this would have worked last year for sure…This year is quite challenging. 🙂
Remember these are weekly charts… so a “flattening” in the curve of the MACD can indicate a change in momentum just like an uptick would on the daily. The RSI is pretty jaggedy as well… indicating really only last week and early this week’s slight sell off… I try to watch the shape of the candles on the weeklies (and monthlies) to give me an idea on direction. Note we cleared the 61.8 line with a long “shadow” and are ending up quite near the top.
Admittedly, however, its still “sammich time.”
________
It’s total “sammich time.”
Nothing but nasty chop taking people out of good positions. I’m forcing myself to stop trading alltogether to keep from fucking my account over with a “death from a thousand cuts”. If someone asked me today what they should do, I’d say hold and don’t look at your stocks unless the SPY breaks 1040 or 1150.
That said SLW is new best friend, those puts I sold really paid off despite the stock not really moving.
But I’m off for two big monster powder days in the snow. What do you think? Will CREE break to new 52-week highs, or will it break down? I’m using it as a tell for the whole market. If CREE can’t close over 68, we’re going down for sure and the fly’s TLT trade is on. Plus SH, as I don’t play in the leveraged ETFs. If we go down, it’s going to be slow and steady, I think. No cliffdiving here, and that will wash out all the 2/3/x gains.
Neither of these scenarios, except China picking up all the spare gold in the world says that PMs will be strong. Still see $900 before $1500 because the Greek scare is bullshit so far as I can see. Market can rally on both it being saved and on default. The falling Euro will push up the dollar, pushing down PMs. If they save Greece, then the short will cover…. I can’t see where the PMs gain here.
CREE is the best chart on the street. Not sure why $68 is your magic number, but I like the current long (urinal) shadow on the weekly too.
If the Greek scare is “bullshit” then the dollar will drop and gold will rise. If the Greek scare is real, then the Euro will drop and gold will maintain.
IOW — I think your logic is 180 degrees in the wrong direction.
Don’t break anything and have fun… we want you back, scaring the gold bugs.
___________
TLT bounced off support (another failure to breakdown), now it’s off to the races. As a big TBT holder, are you worried about a near-breakout in the 10 years?
I’m back in TBT today …. 47.10 .. down so far .. in for a short term bounce .. I don’t like going against Monsieur Sir Le Flea but a man’s gotta do whatta man’s gotta do, doo.
Sg — No, TLT would have to break out over it’s consolidation zone and 34-wk EMA at around $92.50 for me to get concerned.
I won’t be selling my TBT in any case. I consider it portfolio insurance.
___
isnt that a 38% retrace?
Yes, thank you.
I should have said “Bounced off the 61.8% fib line, which is a 38.2% retrace” — both golden ration numbers, but thanks for making the clarification.
_______
This trade is turning out to be very tricky. What to do, what to do….Our buddy DOC is very close now to cutting his position size down (I think he’s talking about futures vs equities which I don’t think he will be touching).
I see that same level on the HUI…Some food for thought regarding a potential pattern that could be there and would support Gary’s case for a D and a break towards 340.
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/11b78f83-a9bf-4a06-8482-9b90643ba2b8
Does anybody really want to question this guy??!! 😉
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/c802bb75-e060-4604-975d-8352feb97104
LIke the HUI close above the 200 and the 20 day on the daily.
_______________
Canada 3 – Slovakia 2
WE WANT USA ! WE WANT USA !
Where is DPZ the slav kid? We knocked off both the Russkies and the Slovaks.
I hope he got a front row seat of the ass kicking.
Canadas gold medal count is impressive if I might say. Especially considering our low population and our not so much support towards our athletes on their way to the Olympics.
If we win tomorrow it will be epic. God willing.
God?
You guys have freedom of religion up there?
Ya dodged a few bullets in the last few minutes there (Oh, Demitra!), eh?
> Pavol Demitra found himself with the puck at the side of the net with 10 seconds left. He fired, and the shot hit Roberto Luongo, the Canada goalie, in the glove as Luongo fell forward. The puck deflected into the air, tracing a tantalizing arc across the face of the goal. It did not go in.
“I hit it so hard and somehow it hit his glove,” Demitra said afterward. “That was a huge save.” <
Save my ass …. poor placement of the puck by him with a huge window.
Haahaha, you call 3-2 with an amazingly lucky reprieve at the end “ass kicking”???
Better check yoself, hoser, before the USA causes half your population to throw themselves off the nearest bridge tomorrow.
On a related note, we fell asleep for 3 minutes tonight and promptly lost our shot at an historic bronze. That sucks monkey nuts. Zednik pulled off a miss eerily similar to Demitra’s with a minute to go and looking to tie in this one.
No luck, I tell ya, no luck at all. Still, 4th place is the best ever and better than our Czech brethren. Take that, inferiority complex!
I was rooting for Halak to get a medal.
Gotta go watch a hockey game now.
God willing. A run up in the price of silver would turn this last month into a cause for celebration.