We’ll Know Today
Friday, February 5, 2010 at 9:36 am
Mr. Limm, Out on A Limb
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The dollar is currently right in the “crunch zone” at $80.24 as I type this. As you recall that was right in my “Wall of Death” from the previous dollar chart, as it ran into two separate strong fib lines:
So, today, on any sign of weakening in the $USD (you can keep an eye on it at (UUP: 23.42 -0.64%) if you can’t get the DXY quote), I will be adding to my (AGQ: 55.66 -0.64%) position one more time.
If we break through this area on more dollar strength, I will be hedging my positions again, and likely cutting down on some of my Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (SLW: 15.44 -0.71%) calls.
Best to you.
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My god, silver is getting gob-smacked.
Looks like we have entered the panic-phase of this sell-off.
I’m counting on it. Seems we’ve had to weather these storms once or twice (or even 3x) a year since the bull began.
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Another crisis possibly around the corner and money is gravitating to the “relative” and perceived safety of the dollar. Makes little sense because we’re all going to pay the piper at some point, but for now it’s a game of “who’s screwed more than us”.
Eh, in the end they gets us all. It’s just money, indeed …
It’s kind of an advanced game of chicken, isn’t it?
Helps to know what the odds are, however. Just watch the leverage, so your hand is not forced.
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Unless the market rockets higher before I get a chance, I will force myself to buy something today.
Tim Knight just announced the bottom was in. Here are his words quoted exactly from his blog:
“It’s going to be a wild ride today. Me? I’m scared to pieces, but will follow my rules religiously. I’ve never been so short.”
I wish I had a nickle for every time he said that. Someone should do a phrase search.
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There are better contrary indicators than TK. That said, you must have HUGE cohones to be short after the pasting we’ve already had. Tim has heuvo rancheros cohones and he is no fool.
I’d argue with that last.
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Whoa, I can’t agree with you there…
Btw — gold/silver ratio is now over 70x. Return to the mean strategy still makes silver a better long term bet.
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Tell that to my AGQ !
Largecrap goldies bouncing off lows with gold still down. But it’s still early.
SLW up 40 cent, even with silver down like a hammer.
I’m going to wait for the turn to add more AGQ… got plenty of room for that — like “battleship” room!
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Err… up 8 cent?
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Err … down 8 cents?
death via AGQ
Silver is down 64 cents (4.2%) and SLW is flat?
hmmm….
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12 of the last 14 trading days have been red for SLW. Incredible weakness, so it can’t go on forever - I think …
The last 35% correction lasted 26 trading days, but there were 9 up days along the way. The current sell off is a bit unusual, for sure.
No position at this time - just watching and waiting.
Dollar Godzilla! (DXY = 80.53)
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DXY= 80.62!
UUP target = 23.75 (left shoulder on weekly)
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Gold/silver ration 70.75! I think that means gold will test the 1035 BO.
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We need a divergence in DXY and commodities. I be on the lookout.
There is, so far today, a nice divergence btw DXY & XAU/HUI .
It’s unstoppable, it’s either a shake out or we’re in the shit(looking more like the latter)
Support levels mean nothing here
Did a Large Commodity Fund Blow Up Somewhere? (RealMoney Silver $)
By Doug Kass
High above the Alps, my gnome is hearing of a large commodity fund blowup.~If accurate, this could help to explain the weakness in crude, gold, etc. over the last few minutes.
Makes a lot of sense
The only saving grace for me in this wide spread destruction is that the currency vs $CAN is providing a small hedge - so far almost 4%.
Bruuuuuccce… where are we headin?
Whats Fleck doing?
what is your stop for AGQ?
I don’t have a stop per se (although I was planning on buying right here at $42.50 or so), but am keyed off the price of Gold. If it bounces at the BO level of 1035, then we are okay. If not, I’m out with some egregious losses.
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And let me just point out - this is the other side of the blade for owning AGQ (which many of you may remember me riding from $34 to the high sixties last year).
I actually had a “mental stop” at $50, but when it gapped through there the other morning, I decided “in for a penny,” etc.
Nice thing about AGQ — I know it will have a floor, even though it be covered with sharp pointy spikes.
So Jake, do we know yet? I’m putting my SLV buys in at $11.90. The carry-trade unwind has legs, n’est-ce pas?
Vraiment!
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Market continuing down (to the 1040-ish 10% pullback?) and gold and silver holding out here.
Still would like to see gold bounce 1035.
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ABX, GG, NEM all up right now with gold down $38 to 1070, the DJIA down 153 to 9848, and silver down .55 to $14.80.
Feels like we’re washing out here - it’s been a long time since I’ve seen this fear.
I did buy a little, a few shares here and there just because I had to.
The other half of my money in mostly Canadian financials, REITs is barely noticing this.
watching gold to see if it can close higher than yesterday …if so, we’ll likely have a lovely hammer on the daily and I’ll get fully invested in the sector.
Nice action just now in gold, the miners positive the whole time.
Better hurry.
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I grabbed a little more SLW earlier today as part of my ‘painful but I gotta do it’ trade
I have a bid in for ANV but I doubt it will fill
And there goes silver too…
Schweeet action !
Boom! goes the dynamite.
’bout time
Frack me. Of course I go out for a meeting and come back and the world’s changed.
Ah well, this is the way these things “do.” Silver back over $15, and Gold/.silver spread coming back… now under 71x
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Gold GLEEEN.
Mr. Limm will be so harpy.
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The fact that SLW held up while silver was being pounded to me shows that there’s a lot of people out there with a lot of money who knew how this day was going to turn out. Now if can make friends with some of them…
Added IAG, MVG and more FRG
Holding out for a better fill on ANV as well
ANV is so hard. I just buy it at market and damn the consequences. It will be the superstar, though, no question.
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I think u may be right …. what’s your take on PAAS? I meant to pick some up (18 1/2 - 20 1/2) but got too lax. That one use to trade like gold and would always end up around 35-40 after lanquishing around 20.
Not enthralled but it’s better than SSRI.
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Any news on ANV, looks like it dropped 9% in AH trading?
That’s some kind of (typical) bullshit Yahoo quote.
I’ve got 12.84 bid, 12.85 asked on my screen right now.
Do not go to Yahoo, if you can help it, if you ask me.
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I know but I’m getting it from Etrade Power Pro real time charting too …????
TBT is bouncing off of trend support today.
Jake, S&P Intraday high, Tuesday 14th October 2008 was 1044.31, bounced off there today. Nice huh?
Pretty amazing. I think Darth Vadon also called 1046, btw.
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Amazing indeed, I hope this level holds (unlike the 1072.91 call i made!) because the next one down from here could be Tuesday 4th Nov 2008, at 1007.51. Yikes!!!
Back from the brink … stared into the abyss … bla bla ….. Par-tay !
Now change your underwear and let’s go get a beer.
Fack, that was exhilarating! Is there any more psychically intense market to trade than this?
It’s like going into a prize fight….
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Tim Knight announced the bottom was in today when he said he has never been so short in his life. I have memorialized his call right here. Fully short at 1060.
http://bit.ly/b2BEjf
Don’t worry, he’ll say tonight about how he covered at 1,045 or so — you watch.
Makes for good comedy if nothing else.
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Wasn’t 1066 the year the Magna Carta was signed?
Freeeeeeeee-dddooooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmmm!!!
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The Battle of Hastings.
DMG, you’re looking up!
WHAT A DAY.
I had my finger on the trigger to grab some more EXK and finally add ANV to the pie, but held off. I’ve never gone in so large on a trade before and the past few weeks has taken 20 years off my life.
I think we shall see an epic run from here…if you, Gary, DOC and all the others I drink Koolaid from are correct.
What a day is right. I saw EXK at 2.90 and almost doubled down but didn’t have the balls to go to 25% on one stock. I almost dumped at $3 and now this bitch is gonna run.
You might have one more chance on Monday…
Big Selling on Strength in the SPY’s today.. May not be out of the woods JUST yet….
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Someone on Gary’s blog mentioned large selling on strength numbers at the EOD.
What do you make of that Jake?
Makes me very cautious, as the number (-675mm) was jumbo.
Maybe one more plungerooni before we’re done.
Could just be effed up tick data, due to massive selloff this morning, though…
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Yep, GIRD YOU LOINS, next week could be an interesting ride.
Last chance to get aboard the PM train.
More EXK and ANV will soon be in my Jayhawk Miners ETF.
Edit…Tim is long GDX so the bottom is not yet in.
Looks like a text book high volume hammer bouncing at support should we should be fine for a few days.
Gold’s holding its own the few days as you mentioned was a good tell.
Caution is never a bad thing though.
What you wrote above about UUP’s turning point was invaluable for me today. Held in there til we hit it- then watched all my main “Jake” stocks (EGO, ANV, RGLD, PAAS) turn my overall portfolio a very nice shade of green by the close. Was stopped out of EXK but jumped back in at 3.08 as I’m getting more used to that stock’s swings. thanks for being such a great blogger–and hope you can catch some sleep before the game
Check out Zerohedge–
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/thank-you-jpmorgan-must-see-jpms-etf-desk-ramps-market-higher-close
Jake - over on Fly’s blog you said:
“Keep in mind we had a $675 mm selling on strength day in the SPY’s.
That could have been just because of the massive selldown today distorting the tick data.
Or it could mean we’re in for more storm on Monday.
Stay alert.”
Would you mind teaching me where you found this data? Is it daily OBV? Mind elaborating a little?
had the same question when I read that post
It’s from the Wall Street Journal — just put this link in your favourites file.
There’s a tab there next to the header that says “Buying on Weakness” — that’s your indicator for down days.
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Bookmarked. Liking the screens on buying into weakness and the sectors also. Will be interesting to study the historical data.
You put in some marathon hours Sir. Truly hope you get a break soon.
LOL. No worries, I’m an insomniac.
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Mr Limm opts for the “bargain basement” child-care option.
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Dolts Draw first blood!
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