(Fed Chairman at Work)
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Let’s not get overexcited about such things as green shoots and bamboo leaves, shall we? Don’t get me wrong, I’m still not convinced this whole basket of cats in not going to just roll over and die here anyway, but what’s going on in the market has almost nothing to do with visions of recovery and everything to do with the continuing decline of the dollar.
Let me tell you, I’ve seen ugly charts for UUP before, but this might be one of the uglier, in terms of the sharp declines taken by the oscillators, that I’ve seen in a while. This tells me that the Fed and our trading allies know that credit is tightening again, and that the dollar spigot will be awash to get us through the tight September months again. Check it out:
Look at that accumulation/distribution line… what the heck? In any case, my first “back to work” market thesis reminder should be a familiar one — this is no time to get shaken out of your precious metal, hard commodity positions.
I also believe U.S. company buyouts will increase as our weaker currency provides better values for our overseas (and cross border) friends, especially those countries who specialize in commodity provision, like Canuckistan and Oz. China, of course, will also be a player, and she has shown she’ll be a willing buyer of commodity assets.
Hold tight, and watch that double bottom target area as marked on the daily UUP chart. Cheers and thanks for your patience.
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Forgot to add… $23.28 is my “line of death” on UUP… below that, we should take off, market wise.
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Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.
I confess my ignorance up front, but I have a question, Jake:
If credit is tightening and a shitstorm is coming…. would not the dollar rise as a safe haven play?
I personally think that the impetus will come from overseas..something Ben and Timmy can’t control.
Credit CANNOT tighten, you see… that’s why the spigots are opening right now, and hard.
If credit tightens, yes, we have a shitstorm, and the Fed and the Administration are discredited, perhaps forever.
So you have to ask yourself… will a shitstorm be allowed to form?
My personal belief (as you know) — is that there is no doubt one day the dam will break and shit will storm, regardless.
But you have to ask yourself, is that day today?
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“…buyouts will increase as our weaker currency provides better values…”
True dat. Surprised Chiner hasn’t already bought West Virginia along with every US coal mine.
Hope you had a great break, Jake. This is a good time of year to be in Maine.
Correction — it may be the ONLY time to be in Maine. Too freaking cold any other time, lol.
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Ha! Visit in November, snowed in till May.
That’s just mean. There are plenty of days in December where it might be above freezing. October’s great no bugs, cool, just the subtle whistling sound in the air of the bow hunters in action. November’s nice too, just now the hunters are carrying high powered rifles, beer and angry wondering how they are going to make their house payments….
It’s really quite nice on the coast where we live in South Portland – seems to be at least 10 degrees cooler in the summer and 10 warmer in the winter.
Hope you made it to Benny’s for a meal.
Spinney’s in Popham and another joint (can’t remember the name) in Boothbay Harbor. In laws are in Brunswick.
As for the weather… don’t bullshit. When I was in college, we played Bates, Bowdoin and Colby on a regular basis, and one time I had a rugby tournament in Orono.
By mid-October it’s bone cold — and probably 10 degrees colder than Western Mass (where we’d driven in from).
I still have memories of a freezing night at Colby, staying on a couch in an ill-heated frat house without an overcoat.
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Welcome back and I hope you guys had a great vacation!
I did almost get shaken out of SLV, but am too stubborn to sell that POS. RBY, NGD and ROY did pretty well today, and even TIE seems like it might pull out of it’s slump. I still have EXK, too, and well it just keeps doing the same thing over and over again.
Bought back into HL, hoping for a short squeeze, and because I read they are the largest producer of silver. Also, I’m reading that management is getting it’s act together.
My “bought on a whim” stock Madcatz (MCS) looks like it might be getting ready to rise, finally.
Followed GIO into a couple of companies, and still holding those.
Also thinking about Chuck B.’s Drank. I think it might be a fun one, like MCZ.
That’s my portfolio in a nutshell. Just felt like putting it out there in cyberworld, since I really needed to tell someone. LOL
Oh, and TGB. Still holding and might add more copper by way of Copper Mountain Mining (CUM). They are getting ready to open a new (old) mine and just got some important permits signed.
I didn’t get CTIC like everyone here did. Now I feel kind of sorry that I didn’t.
What’s everyone else around here holding for PM and base metals?
Well, you know what I’m holding for the most part… but maybe I’ll talk a little bit about my non Jacksonian PM’s tonight….
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JIG
Keep an eye on Bob the BLDR for tomorrow… it’s busting out da triangle as of today.
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How bout Bob the Prechter for an opposing view on the $ and hard assets?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/24027
I’m starting to fall into his camp as it seems everyone (not just the IBCers) and their grandmother is on the PM/Commodities bandwagon and you just know it won’t play out as expected.
An excerpt: “Foreclosures, defaults, and delinquencies are being significantly under-reported even now as the government is supporting all of it and as regulatory bodies have allowed banks and other ‘investors’ to over-value it.”
“As debt is destroyed the dollar will strengthen.”
“I think this will go on until stock prices hit new lows again and the government will abandon all sensibility. Not until then will be there be a hyper-inflationary event that most are looking for. It requires lower prices to spur lending to spur inflation.”
The time to reconsider is after much of the consumer debt is destroyed (1-2 yrs) and/or a derivatives blowup exposes fractional reserve lending for the fraud that it is.
In the meantime, too many have lost too much by betting on hyperinflationary outcomes that are nearly impossible with this amount of debt-overhang.
Nothing is impossible when you have a fiat currency and a Congress that will not quit spending no matter how desperate the situation.
Social Security is running out of money… there is only one way out.
I have to admit I don’t get “as debt is destroyed, the dollar will strengthen” — why would anyone be interested in being dollar denominated if dollar debt is more risky?
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Prechter is an interesting character. I enjoy listening to or reading his “predictions”. I would not however adjust my trading or market outlook based on his outlook. He seems most comfortable when he has a doomsday scenario at the ready. It’s been like this since the 1980’s. I am not saying that he can’t be successful investing or trading with this outlook. I’m sure he can. I’m just not so sure that it’s helpful for the general investing public.
I think it’s most important to understand your individual tendencies and adjust your trading accordingly. I prefer to listen to guys like Lachman Achuthan http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/
Yogi, I agree with you about understanding your own individual tendencies and adjusting your trading accordingly. After two years of obsession and untold hours of reading, lots of money lost, a little money gained I am beginning to realize what these are for me. Two years and I am just scratching the surface. Learning to tune out some of the noise and opinions has been an important step for me. Also learning to slow down before I hit the buy or sell button. And really thinking about why I am buying a stock, and my time frame for each one. A quick buck, a longer time frame, etc.
I buy mostly miners because that is my area of interest. I can understand mining companies and their product. I don’t know how soon gold will be $2,000, if ever, but I do know the world is going to need copper and base metals, and lots of them, as well as energy. World growth and an increase in the quality of life of underdeveloped countries practically guarantees it. Supply and demand. And I can understand that people who do have a lot of money will buy gold to protect their wealth, and why that is.
I have learned to stay away from microchips and banks because I don’t understand their business. I can follow Fly into those companies, but I don’t really understand the companies. I hate having to keep checking to see “did he sell yet, is he buying more, and so on and so forth. Heck, I wanted to buy some stock in a Canadian bank, but I finally gave up when I couldn’t understand anything about any of them.
at $23.28 right now…wait, now 23.26…
Bingo. $23.05 is my new target. We should get a bounce there if you are looking at selling some poppers.
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Bought BEXP @ 7.35, starter position, for a longer term natural gas play. And more AVII (Gio’s flu play). Man that thing sure took a dive yesterday. Ouch! But, I still think long term it will pay off.
SVA has been my (very profitable) flu play from under $3. When in doubt, go with the most amount of people served (ie, Chiner — sic).
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Thanks for the pointer, it makes a lot of sense.
WT Frg!
New post ———————–>>>>>>>>>
UUP looking to rollover hear at approx 2 pm. Get yer PM’s while they are hot.
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