(Fed Chairman at Work)
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Let’s not get overexcited about such things as green shoots and bamboo leaves, shall we? Don’t get me wrong, I’m still not convinced this whole basket of cats in not going to just roll over and die here anyway, but what’s going on in the market has almost nothing to do with visions of recovery and everything to do with the continuing decline of the dollar.

Let me tell you, I’ve seen ugly charts for UUP before, but this might be one of the uglier, in terms of the sharp declines taken by the oscillators, that I’ve seen in a while. This tells me that the Fed and our trading allies know that credit is tightening again, and that the dollar spigot will be awash to get us through the tight September months again. Check it out:

Look at that accumulation/distribution line… what the heck? In any case, my first “back to work” market thesis reminder should be a familiar one — this is no time to get shaken out of your precious metal, hard commodity positions.

I also believe U.S. company buyouts will increase as our weaker currency provides better values for our overseas (and cross border) friends, especially those countries who specialize in commodity provision, like Canuckistan and Oz. China, of course, will also be a player, and she has shown she’ll be a willing buyer of commodity assets.

Hold tight, and watch that double bottom target area as marked on the daily UUP chart. Cheers and thanks for your patience.

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