But really not a horrendous day for the Jacksonians, which gives one pause, no?
Now the PM’s are resuming their slide, and I can’t help but think it’s “of a piece” with the Treasury’s desperate need to sell bonds here. Again, we continue to see opportunity, as I think it’s unlikely that gold will fall much below $890-ish on a per oz. scale, and I would be shocked to see it claw back to $850. In the event it does, however, I will be manning the one man oompah-band, complete with bass drum, polka accordian and egregiously long slide trombone in order to advertise to the world — via drum majorette high kicks — that this is the time to back up the truck and buy.
In the meantime, I will continue to convert my more esoteric picks (non-Jacksonian) and hedges of large positions into cash for additional rodent-like hordings of shiny metals. In fact, should gold break $900 again, I will “do my part” and for the first time since 2001 start buying physical again. If the Comex geeks want to “play that,” Homey will be obliged.
I have included a “weighted return” in today’s review (from yesterday’s close), so you can see how much each individual position actually returns. As you can see, the actual $150,000 original investment is up a little more than the “pick alone” number, thanks to cashing out on a few loser, and thereby having them a lesser portion of the portfolio. As a result, I will likely add to some Jacksons soon with the cash and hedge amounts ( [[TZA]] and Cash are equal to almost $23K at this point — or 14% of the portfolio) when the time is right. That may be soon, fwiw.
| Name/ | % | Portfolio | Portfolio | ||||
| Ticker | 6-Jul | 7-Jul | Change | Value | Impact | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 29.67 | $ 29.96 | 0.98% | $ 18,091.79 | 0.11% | Still trending. | |
| EGO | 8.75 | 8.79 | 0.46% | 8,236.23 | 0.02% | Hanging on, relative strength today | |
| GDX | 36.94 | 36.51 | -1.16% | 11,050.24 | -0.08% | Hanging at 50% retracement | |
| GLD | 90.76 | 90.71 | -0.06% | 10,432.43 | 0.00% | Relative strength | |
| IAG | 9.93 | 9.99 | 0.60% | 12,318.13 | 0.04% | One of my strongest golds | |
| MON | 73.26 | 72.62 | -0.87% | 4,259.24 | -0.02% | Down not so bad, considering. | |
| NRP | 20.70 | 20.38 | -1.55% | 4,229.97 | -0.04% | Sold 1/2 on break of $20.50 | |
| PAAS | 17.83 | 17.71 | -0.67% | 10,636.64 | -0.04% | Expected to test $17 again. | |
| RGLD | 39.04 | 39.19 | 0.38% | 10,828.96 | 0.02% | Oversold, $38 a possibility today. | |
| SLV | 13.10 | 12.89 | -1.60% | 10,471.16 | -0.10% | Oversold, but 200 week beckons (12.40) | |
| SLW | 7.75 | 7.80 | 0.65% | 7,576.43 | 0.03% | Support @ $7.50 | |
| SSRI | 18.20 | 17.91 | -1.59% | 10,418.85 | -0.10% | $17 likely goal. | |
| TBT | 50.94 | 50.19 | -1.47% | 9,998.01 | -0.09% | Waiting for bond market to resolve | |
| TC | 10.07 | 9.82 | -2.48% | 4,606.66 | -0.07% | Could target 50 day ($9.00) | |
| TCK | 16.88 | 16.15 | -4.32% | 10,738.03 | -0.28% | Gave back most of prior day. | |
| TZA | 24.34 | 25.86 | 6.24% | 5,209.53 | 0.20% | Portfolio saver again, still 1/2 position | |
| Cash (000) | $ 13.44 | $ 17.69 | 0.01% | 17,694.95 | 0.00% | Increased on 1/2 sale of NRP | |
| AVG (daily) | -0.38% | $ 166,797.25 | -0.40% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -1.50% | Actual | |||||
| AVG (inception) | 10.80% | Return | 11.20% | ||||
Whoever took that picture has no shot at a career in the industry of ‘food-photography’.
Ahh, just like mom used to make….
Is it Kosh?
Made me wonder… ESPECIALLY the action out of aluminum names like CENX and AA. Very odd!
You know, it is not a coincidence that offal is a delicacy in the “emerging markets.” The repatriation of the American consumer will have them choking of their own offalness [sic].
Thank you Jake. Are you going to limit physical purchases to gold, or will you venture into silver and platinum as well?
I already own a ton of silver, but I will likely get some more of that as well. Platinum, depends on price. I wish I’d bot more when it was on parity w. gold back a number of months ago.
I am more likely to stick with the two more liquid guys, unless platinum becomes superattractive.
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Serious question for my big trader friends (Chivas in particular).
I have just rechecked my short and intermediate term fibs for the SPY. The 2 year chart gives me a high of just over 151.05 on 10/07/07 and a low of just under 66.25 on 3/06/09.
That gives me a .236 (first fib) line at 86.26 on the SPY.
Consequently, my near term chart gives me a high of 98.77 on 11/04/08, and the same low on 3/06/09.
That gives me a .618 fib line (golden ratio, strong line) at 86.35 on the chart.
As you know, these lines tend to come in very close to one another across different periods, but the overlapping ones (nine basis pts is not much) are usually stronger than the singular lines.
Wouldn’t you think this 86.30 area would be a good place to cover your shorts, as a result?
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while not being chivas, i think you’re right on, jake. i’d expect a lot of buying/covering to creep in with the SPY around 85 +/- a point or so.
this is kind of back of the napkin t/a, but i often see that after a h&s pattern forms the second shoulder, the pre-bounce decline is usually a vertical distance roughly equivalent to the horizontal distance of the right half of the h&s. it’s a rough estimate, but it usually holds true, give or take a few percent.
i think we’re fairly close to that when SPY is 85.
Jake, as you may recall, I am not especially fond of fibs and having said that, I don’t think you apply them right!
In this case, I would be doing fibs with the 0% being the low in March and the high 100% being the high in June. With that the fibs on a retrace of that move from March to June are:
38.2%: 84.55
50%: 81.08
61.8%: 77.61
So the nearest one would be 84.55 which could be a good point of bounce for this drop going on now if it goes on beyond today. (I give a 50% chance of this drop bouncing here and 50% chance of it becoming a multiday continued drop from here).
Jake, Looks like a nice double bottom might be forming on the SPY 5-minute chart at 87.08. might hold might not. I guess if I were short I’d want to cover (I’m not short.). OK. As I’m typing it broke down. Never mind.
Y&BB — no I see it. Forming a little dubya pattern right now.
Where’s Chivas?
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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KG08Dj03.html
I haven’t gotten out the calculator yet and am not Chivas, but….the June 11th high with the March 6th low has already broken down the 23.6% and is trying to work on the 38.2% range which should be in the 842-845 range. Beyond that I know 50% retrace of this move should fill the SPY @ 81.42 gap fill. I hope for but realize the multiple time frame supports @ 875 on the SPX. My thoughts per EW are that we are in an ABC of the wave 2 of which B is the corrective before the next leg up. I think C of this move could take us around 1007ish of the SPX without any violations. Beyond that scenario Wave 3 should begin with just as much animosity. I think/feel that this cycle finishes sometime in the summer of ’10.
I should conclude by saying that I find 452-457 to be an ultimate bottom, and not the 150 so many are calling for.
Agreud. I think the “many” is just Devil Dawg, fwiw.