11 That’s right, you heard correctly. A top in AAPL. A potential top anyways… and it has nothing to do with stupid valuations, fucked up PE ratios, homosexual trendlines, Steve Jobs is sick again rumours, options manipulation, @TraderFlorida, global Armafuckingeddon, or that dumbass patent case… this is all based on gut feeling and opinion.
@Zenhunter made an interesting call on RIMM yesterday on his blog post that caught my attention..his call that RIMM is in a very interesting position right now to take advantage of Samsung’s setback in losing to AAPL in its latest infringment case.
I haven’t looked at RIMM seriously in a very long time. I mean I know of many a Crackberry fanboy and love to engage in mortal combat with animalistic fervor every now and then as to why they’re still fucked. I owned RIMM and loved what they had going for them many an eon ago.. And not because I’m a Canadian and it’s “the Canadian thing” to do.
I initially got into RIMM at a nice $65 per share pre-split in 2007.. rode it up, captured the 3 for 1 split on Aug 27, 2007 and let it hit my stop of $120.00 post-split early November, of that same year. I had every intention of getting back in, as RIMM was on top and its potential seemed limitless at the time. In fact, I still remember clearly kicking myself hard when it ripped tits all the way up to $140 early in 2008.
But then the crash to end all crashes occurred and I was too busy treading in shitsoup, catching falling knives in AAPL, and wallowing in fucktarded stocks in potash and oil, to muster the kahonas to buy back into RIMM at the time. I always kept a watchful eye on them, hopeful to get buy back in when I finally recouped all my fucking money back from literally blowing myself up in 2008, as I knew mobile and smartphones would be the next wave or bubble to catch.
On that faithful day on Oct 25th, 2010, they announced the Playbook, Gut instinct told me this was going to be RIMM’s ultimate demise. Why? This was indeed the day I felt RIMM had decided to stop leading the market and innovate the things they did best like BBM and dinky little keyboards, and START FOLLOWING AAPL into the tablet market. Plus, their CEO focusing all his undivided attention trying to acquire an NHL hockey team didn’t help their cause at the time either. Indeud, I was right; I didn’t call “the top” exactly but I nailed “the end”.
In the last couple of days, AAPL confirmed an iPad Mini is going to be released sometime in October. And, I will be keeping my eye on this closely.
Now if Apple were to follow up in Steve Jobs-esce style, just like when the public was all hot and bothered over ‘netbooks’ at the time, and Steve replied with a “fuck you dickwad, netbooks are for suckers” and then proceeded with the creation of the first ‘ultra-book’, the Macbook Air… then THAT would be whole different ballgame….
In the meantime, I’ll sit back and enjoy the ride whilst awaiting the delivery of cocaine and we’ll soon see what Apple has to offer…
11 Responses to “Calling the Top in AAPL…. You Heard it Here…”
elizamae
Before reading further in the paragraph about the “iPad mini” I thought to myself: “wait, iPad mini? What the hell is the iPod touch?”
I think the real question here is: what is the point of diminishing returns for the number of Apple products a hipster needs? If the answer is 3, then this could very well be the top.
Heisenberg
As an Apple fanboy, I have it up to ‘7’ now– iPhone, iPad, Ipod touch, iPod nano, iMac, Macbook Air.. ATV.. and I use all of them except the ATV quite extensively… and this doesn’t include the kids or the wife’s products…
Remember they said that about about the iPad when it got released.. everyone hated the name and it was just one big iPhone.. I LOVED it on announcement day and pre-odered it the same day.. But the iPad Mini?? Hmmm…
elizamae
I thought iPad sounded like some Masshole talking about his iPod.
zenhunter
Now, that is what I called flexibility in thinking! You are not a perma-AAPL-bull after all.
We will soon see if AAPL can carry the visionary torch without Steve Jobs. I always doubt it but underestimate the carrying power of Steve’s products- the iPhone and iPad.
iPhone 5 will be the tell tale sign of the new management visionary process. A mini-iPad, to me, is just another desperate attempt to extend Steve’s legacy.
But Steve started a revolution of smartphone and tablet that cannot be stopped by an abuse of patent protection. Despite “look alike” of Samsung product to the iPhone, the Galaxy smartphone continues to reflect better technology while iPhone only made a tepid improvement with a 4s. iPhone 5 may as well be just another “catch-up” to what the new Galaxy smartphone has to offer.
And yes, I bought AAPL put options again this morning. If you call the top, are you locking in profit now or wait for a sell signal in your trading plan?
Good luck!
Regarding RIMM, I may buy back after the “correction” is done (if there is one).
Heisenberg
I took some profits on some trader shares according to “my plan” at $645.. been kicking myself since! My plan (of multiple plans) with BB bands and selling on overbought signals seems to work best at getting in long on dips but not so much at timing a getting out strategy. Never expected it to go parabolic so soon…
My trades with the max pain (sell tuesday/wednesday; buy fridays) theory works quite well but fundamentals, as in news releases and earnings beats, I have learnt the hard way always trumps any technical shinola…
zenhunter
Based on your posts so far, you trade with a plan and you are doing quite well I may say. No trading plan is perfect; but if it makes you money at the end, it is what count.
I’m glad to be able to read your contribution here. Your hilarious writing is a hood to read!
Btw, this AAPL of yours is really stubborn, I got stopped out again with small losses! Oh well, at least I had some excitement while I’m sitting on mostly cash.
Heisenberg
oh yes..AAPL can be a bitch..I’ve learnt the hard way never go short because of its explosive upward momentum it can have! If you really have to, I always look at the open interest
http://www.maximum-pain.com/open-interest.aspx
I find the options mkt manipulates AAPL so much the share price is actually a derivative of the options mkt. And looking at the chart, share price tends to move AWAY from the largest peaks. Instead of trying to judge where the price WILL be, think where it WILL NOT be…Only news releases trumps the options guys manipulation…
zenhunter
If AAPL cannot recover from today or fail to take out today high in the coming future, you may as well call the top.
I’m again short AAPL since this morning with put option. If I’m still in profit by end of day, I will hold it and will continue to hold if each day close below the previous day.
And if Samsung succeed in knocking down the rectangular with round corner in the appeal process, AAPL will drop like a rock. The bouncing bottom page is an easy fix and will not stop Samsung from continuing selling their popular Galaxy models.
AAPL desperately needs the rectangular with round corner protection as much as I want the “round” clock patent to protect me from competitors who can come up with a round clock with far superior technology behind it.
Heisenberg
@Zen: careful going short and holding into Monday, even EOD friday… respect the options manipulation.. according to OI, it should trade in the ranges 660-680; meaning more upside than downside potential.. AAPL is doing nothing out of the norm and expected to trade lower today looking at the option chains. the patents and appeal means nothing short term and I expect AAPL may still ramp up next week into the iP5 announcement barring a nasty SPX crash on Jackson Hole…
zenhunter
Thanks for the add’l info. I will let the chart tell me what to do but will probably use a lower time-frame to watch out for the warnings you gave. Worst case scenario will be that I stop out at breakeven.
Btw, the Russian is coming after AAPL as well. LOL!
http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2012/08/30/russia-unveils-prototype-tablet/?mod=yahoo_hs
zenhunter
Guess what, just read the news on the iPhone5 update and you were right. So, I took profit when I saw a bullish divergent bar on the 5m chart. And is not going long on AAPL. If this long trade turn out to be sustainable, I’ve you to thank!
Cheers!