What a stupid market. Anyway, if its going to act that way then I’ll have to lower my % goal this month by a few percentage points.
Right now, we’re seeing a lot of hesitation and delay effect still going on. Today we got that squeeze. This market is either too predictable or too unbelievable. Yeah, go figure. Everything is classic, except everything doesn’t feel right… we get a sell-off but it doesn’t feel like a panic type selloff; we get the squeeze that everyone was waiting for, but I’m like how soft is that? And at the close of today’s tape, we get the tail down on the squeeze, but its like I can’t trust it; market gaps up, you fade it; FAZ is up you fade that; market has become too predictable and yet deceiving at the same time. Lol. Seeing how messed up in the head this market is, I caught a 6% move in FAZ near the close… market squeezes and I still catch a gain in FAZ?! How is that possible? I need a break. In the back of my head I feel like the market is ready to get out a club and beat me up.
Finally, the VIX is down over 9% and FAZ is green. Bwa ha ha! Hmmmm. Scratching my head here. All I can say is that the face of this market is changing, therefore you should be adjusting your trading strategies a little. Trading in the past 2 months cannot be applied to the months forward. Game changes, play by the rules.
aLoHa,
Gio
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lol classic article, no pun intended.
The $UVOL was up over the $DVOL and FAZ was still green too!! That’s what made me wonder, and it was one of my deciding factors for taking FAS by the nuts before the squeeze. Missed the FAZ trade, but at least I got my exit down pat for FAS…
This market is truly absurd. Everywhere you turn, your gut says, “Waaait a tick,” and then you hesitate… and delay.
Great post!
GREAT point Gio.
“Trading in the past 2 months cannot be applied to the months forward. Game changes, play by the rules.”
Thats what foils traders. They trade all markets the same.
For me, and this is my opinion only (unless you share it)
we were in consolidation nov – feb 17th, where mean reversion trading an few days swings were preferable.
on 18th, we began trending, which means were basically only going down, (…a trend). This threw people off, since they were expecting more chop like the prior three months.
In a week or so, this downtrend should end, but by then, everyone will be geared to ride a position lower on the first bounce. That’s the exact time we start to chop again, or go higher.
got to recognize what the market is doing and HOW she is doing it.
yea i base all my market off the vix first and have noticed the same shit you are talikg about the past few days shit is changing and i have been scalig back my lot sizes because of the uncertinty
my saying for the past two years has been the vix never lies but the past 2 weeks the market and the vix have been just plain stupit
It’s true about the crazy divergence everywhere. It’s like traders are collectively sloshing around in the tide of the black morass we call the market. I normally have three to four technicals I watch to determine my moves and the divergence is enough for me to reach for a straight razor to my locks…and that’s bad ’cause not too many folks like bald girls
Well said Gio and Danny ….
I felt the change today and it was hard to adjust to a different trading environment. Still dizzy from today. Very hard to switch on a dime.
Any further thoughts on this dillemna would be appreciated.
TIA
good post, gio
i wish i had historical data for the nikkei back to say 1985 or so. it would be interesting to see how things unfolded as japan fell apart.
It’s a psych job. We’re in a major downtrend, but fear of a massive rally or market bottom keeps most of us with tight stops. Maybe a reason for a lot of the chop? Then the eight days of selling gets people looking for low 600’s and piling on their shorts. It doesn’t feel like there’s any panic left. Everything is VERY controlled and ordinary. Even though we started 2009 WORSE than last year, it’s been drip drip drip. I don’t have any sense of a “crash” happening. Why would we crash when we’ve been in a steady crash since last July.
Gio, watch XOM as another good sign of what the market is doing. I don’t know if XOM is the cart or the horse, but after it held its open price today at 65.50 and popped, that was all the market needed. It also broke down from 70 a week or two ago and the S&P took a shit. XLF also seems to be a driving force.
Looks like the VIX bounced off the 50-day. Thoughts on this coked up indicator? Most of the time it feels like the VIX is having seizures.
I am currently smacking myself for not having the balls to hold FAZ overnight and take the trade at $74. FAZ hit $100 today.
>=0
Zmoose holding FAZ overnight is having a firecracker lit in your pants…its waiting to plunge in any market bounce.
Trigger for a real bounce- tomorrows jobs report. Maybe.
Forex market is hinting it, im buying it (not equity though)
This comment thread has a high trader IQ
I can’t believe there’s a sector on the PPT called “Chinese Burritos”. bwa ha!