iBankCoin
Joined Jul 30, 2008
2,107 Blog Posts

Market con: Divergence day #2, VIX signals complacency yet market fades


There was one fat LOL pattern that took about 2 hours to develop.  It came out of nowhere.  But that’s to be expected during these divergence days (ie, FAZ up, market up, FAS down; VIX down, market down).  These are very tricky tapes to trade and if you find them, stay away until you notice one of the variables (market or indicator) catches up with the other.  I noticed the market was catching up with the VIX around noon time so entered FAS; then remembering how girly girly the bulls were today went long FAZ on the fade (ie, VIX down -7% and Dow can’t even go +100 or take out the day’s open).

Whatever.

This may turn out to be a bear trap, with buying on the the relief rally delayed.  I am aiming for late Thursday for covering/profit-taking for bears.  Key words here is “delayed.”

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9 comments

  1. Woodshedder

    Yeah, I do not think big money is buying many puts here.

    It looks to me like selling is forcing more selling.

    Bad news for the bulls is without a high VIX or high Put/Call ratio, there is not much gunpowder to ignite a rally.

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  2. larry

    The LOL pattern is forming a lot these days.

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  3. Gio

    … yes it is. a sign of hesitation/delay in the markets.

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  4. kc

    It’s like we’re first time skydiving and no one wants to be the first one out the door. Ahhhh
    I forgooot my shuuuuuuuute shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit………… You get the idea. Great posting Gio, here and on Twitter. I saw you’ve never seen snow too bad we lots and -50 wind chill tonight. Thanks

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  5. Buckeye Bob

    WHo the heck keeps selling? Multi decade lows and still selling – I guess you can keep selling until 0 or does the administration now allow negative prices in order to punish Wall Street more

    97 perent cash, day trading on the short side

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  6. Danny

    no you can’t!

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  7. ZMoose12

    Hope you don’t mind if I post your blog’s link on MJTT… I wanted to quickly outline the FAS/FAZ trades of the day, and you’re always on the ball with this pair. Your ideology and mine are quite similar with these two as well!

    ZM

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  8. Gio

    No problem zmoose. do what u can with what u got.

    -gio-

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