Dow is down an abysmal and discouraging -4.3% since January 22!
Nasdaq is down a huge, enormous, crazy, super crazy -5.17% since January 22!!
S&P is down a bloody red, “oh my! Sell sell sell!” -2.39% since January 22!!! And yet you dare call a bottom here?
…What happened on January 22?
January 22, the Vix was at 32. Today it is down 34% from that FIRST “Vix over 30 in 2008” which was the first panic of year. So far, we have gotten over 30 on the Vix 2x this year.
I hope you can detect my sarcasm in the indexes… …you can’t possibly call a bottom here, when the market has no panic. Bottom-callers are deceived by their parochial point of views, when in fact, they should be looking at the problems, real problems, that is happening GLOBALLY. The Shanghai composite is down over 50% since the top! The Dollar is rallying, which can cause a domino effect of other global markets to fall. Energy, no matter how you look at it, trades north of $100 a barrel. And yet, we are only down -2.39% from January 22 on the S&P?
Just thought I’d give you a different way to view the market, from the January 22 point of view, which should help you get a clearer picture of where this market stands.
Get short on every spike, or stay cash.
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I need a spike! I sold out of all my inverse ETFs yesterday.
Asia got shellacked; Europe not starting well; futures keep dropping; PPI tomorrow…I’m thinking we’ll tank again.
But I’ll take anything other than this churn. Are we done with August yet?
German PPI 27 year high.
Zimbabwe inflation at 11.4 million percent for the month.
And, finally, NGA was some odd anomaly. However, knowing how sensitive “The PPT” is to price action, I am sure it spit out a sell, prior to the full extent of the collapse.
Generally, those are black swan events, beyond control.
Go to sleep.
BTW: Great post Gio.
People need to put things into perspective, when frothing from the mouth. The markets will go nowhere for the next 10 years.
Again a great post Gio.
I like esoteric technical widgets to try to suss out details but the obvious needs pointed out all the time.
Good to see you on the ibc because now I have one less bookmark to make.
Those are some ugly numbers Fly. wouldn’t that be a nightmare? to bank so much coin, then have it worth nothing because of hyper-inflation.
cuervo: what are you doing up so early? although there is the obvious, trading it may not be that easy. In my trading notes (that i review every night), I noted a lot of anomalies and violations to correlations that held true in the past few months (for example the following, including their inverses, did not hold:
the energy down=market up relationship is broken; the dollar up=gold down has increasing larger standard deviations; also energy down=ags down didn’t hold either; airlines super up=energy down, failed on Monday; and for you traders, Oil up = SKF up, that didn’t go well in the past week too.) What is happening? Something is happening.
… usually when the market gets that screwy, that is signalling a big move. Kind of like how ants gather a bunch of crap before a storm on a sunny day. And since the Vix is trading at a low 20 level, then the probability is in favor for the bears.
what are you doing with your MEA ???
I’m holding MEA. Adding above 16 and 18… in about 19 years.