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Trannie Lover Deluxe

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One of the interesting aspects about the broad market correction since April is how many veteran technicians have extrapolated on the gloom and doom that awaits our future, without so much as acknowledging some glaring bullish divergences. Now, I recognize that I am just some punk blogger, whereas Richard Russell and Art Cashin write their daily limericks to much fanfare and praise.

However, riddle me this, elderly sirs–Why have the transportation stocks failed to come even remotely close to breaching their February lows (as opposed to the S&P and countless other indices/sectors/stocks)? Moreover, why, good sirs, have the trannies now broken out of their multi month falling channel if the world is, indeed, ending within a year?

To be sure, there is a lot of work to be done in terms of backing and filling, even if the next move is much higher from here. However, the trannies are historically leading indicators, and to hear technicians/theorists like Prechter and Russell ramble on about an epic move lower is just not evident in the charts yet.

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CHESS MOVES

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I made the following trades, thus far today (ALL trades are timestamped inside The PPT):

  • Up a quick 10%, I sold 1/2 of $ARUN.
  • I added 1/4 to $BX and now have a 3/4 position.
  • I initiated a 1/2 position in $POWR (see chart below).

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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:

EQUITIES: 36%

  • LONG: 36% ($ARUN $BX $NR $NTAP $SAPE $SWSI $POWR)

CASH: 64%

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TELL it Like it Is

Those of you who follow my writings know that $FCX is one of my key tells for the broad market. See my notes in the charts below for details…

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A Move and a Groove

A CHESS MOVE: I bought a 1/2 starter in $BX. Check out the chart below.

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A GROOVE: I am grooving to the music of the emerging markets. Their collective ETF continues to lead the market higher. If you recall, the emerging markets bottomed in November of 2008, several months before the U.S. did in March of 2009. Their updated daily chart tells the story of a series of higher lows since May, with tons of upside potential should it get–and hold–above $41 (see below).

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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:

EQUITIES: 34%

  • LONG: 34% ($ARUN $BX $NR $NTAP $SAPE $SWSI)

CASH: 66%

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CHESS MOVES

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In the face of the sharp move higher today, I took some profits. I sold both 1/4 of my $NR position, and 1/2 of $SWSI.

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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:

EQUITIES: 30%

  • LONG: 30% ($ARUN $NR $NTAP $SAPE $SWSI)

CASH: 70%

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDT8OOkS_dc 450 300]

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