Just to clarify our coming price increase inside the 12631 Trading Service in 2012, so long as you sign up for either a monthly, semi-annual, or annual membership before New Year’s, you will be “grandfathered in” to our current low prices indefinitely and you will not be subjected to a price increase in January.

Click on the 12631 hyperlink for more details about signing up for as little as $25 per month (you must be a member of The PPT first).

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We have been short CRM for a while now inside 12631, and today’s weakness is notable even with the broad market lower too. The weekly chart above shows that the stock was on the cusp of breaking down from a sloppy period of consolidation that I termed the “War Box” in this post a few weeks back. Since then, there was a sharp rally up to the mid-$120’s, making life not so easy for shorts. I had been stalking it for a while, but waited until that rally up to $126 where I initiated the short. When you factor in the loose and sloppy chart pattern and the heavy selling volume over the past few months, Salesforce.com remains one of those leaders since 2009 that is still vulnerable and, at the very least, is far from offering up a quality long setup.

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…but then again, to borrow the expression from the guys over at ESPN, aren’t we all?

The recurring pattern of sharp sell-offs from negative news flow out of Europe, followed by a snapback rally based on rumors of positive, accommodative policies is taking shape again this morning. Headed into the weekend, perhaps the only certainty is that more uncertainty will emanate out of the European politicians’  and central bankers’ meetings. Clearly, the market is concerned about the long-term viability of the European Union, or else I suspect we would not be seeing such sensitivity to price action from the headlines. Shorter-term, though, the various rumors alternate between a quick demise of the EU, versus the can being kicked down the road, which helps to perpetuate the day-to-day swings in stocks we are seeing.

From a swing trader’s perspective, the technicals are still attempting to consolidate, at best, which makes having conviction in either direction a difficult proposition. I have been keeping a very tight leash on any positions inside 12631, still sitting in heavy cash. While the temptation may be to shut off the computer and walk away from this market, I usually find in situations like these that it is better to keep an active watchlist for potential longs and shorts. By closely monitoring the watchlist, I will see if long setups like PIR come to fruition. If they fail, then that is usually a sign that the market will continue to punish bulls, even if it does not completely break down, and vice versa for short setups and bears.

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Courtesy of the idea machine inside the 12631 chat room, I have been noticing more and more tight chart patterns. I want to start with HPQ to specifically point to the flattish triangle, which you can see as price tightens while bumping up against well-defined resistance. Instead of becoming loose and sloppier as it fights against resistance, price seems to be getting more and more coiled. I interpret this as a sign to be on watch for a bullish breakout. This also jives with the theme of “value” stocks like mega-cap old-tech titan HPQ being more in favor going forward than “growth” momentum names like CRM.

Hat Tip to 12631 members: “Abhadauria,” “Earl,” and “Mockingjay” aka “spoiledsquid” in the iBC Blogger Network. 

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2011 has been a crazy ride, but not necessarily a ride on the highway where you arrive at a destination. Rather, the market has been more of an amusement park ride, where you have random thrills and moments of horror and then proceed to get off in the same place you started. As we work through the final month of this year, the bears seem to be content with moving to cash, while bulls are making a valiant attempt to buy the dips.

This morning, as an example, the bears had a chance to push us much lower off of the open. However, as I write this the bulls are trying to push us back to even. Overall, the market has essentially worked on going sideways over the past few days, which I noted was a likely scenario after the V-shaped bounce from the Thanksgiving week sell-off. You can see that denoted on the zoomed-out 30-minute chart of the SPY below.

I am still using a long/short strategy inside 12631. I am in a good mental zone, focused and as objective as ever. So, I am not too concerned with the direction in which this market breaks–I will adjust accordingly, as has been one of my hallmarks.

If the market rallies into the afternoon, a few long ideas for you: CAB ERTS HCBK PIR XEC. For the bears, DECK looks vulnerable here, breaking down below what looked like a bull flag.

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We have a mixed bag this morning among the major indices, with the Nasdaq Composite lagging the benchmarks. Underneath the surface, the transportation stocks are among the worst performers. However, the trannies have been acting well of late and were due for a breather. In fact, the same can be said for this market as a whole. I do not mind this type of price action today, even if it means exuding a bit more patience. V-shaped bounces are as difficult as it gets to play in the market, and sideways-to-down would be the preferred paths in the coming days before the market makes its next big move.

I am running a long/short strategy still, inside 12631, which has been working quite well for me in recent weeks. My cash level is still high, serving as a buttress against a still-volatile market that has yet to come all the way back from a sharp summer sell-off. I do not see too many impressive breakout stocks working to the upside this morning. I have a few shorts on that look to have potential, but only if the bears really seize control this afternoon.

The indices also look to be well on their way to printing a classic doji candle today, which usually means it is correct to not push any trades.