I am still holding a 1/2 position left of my Apple short, after locking in gains early last week on the first part of it. To update my ongoing, against-the-grain trade for this beloved firm and stock, Apple is currently bouncing off of its 200 day moving average. The 200 day is obviously a widely-watched reference point, and I am not surprised in the least to see some buyers make an attempt down here.

However, the two prongs of my original thesis for the short remain intact. They are:

1. The “Island Top” rare bearish pattern on the daily chart which remains confirmed.

2. The two bearish MACD warnings signs on the weekly, including the MACD cross and divergence.

Also note the potential for the recent bounce off the 200 day moving average to become a bear flag, while most seem to be expecting another V-shaped bounce off that reference point. I may very well add back to the short upon breakdown from a bear flag. However, I will respect a buy-cover stop-loss should the stock rip higher.

Regardless of the short-term outcome of this particular trade, I am at my best as a trader when I make the best strategic decision each and every single time. In this case, as objectively as I can, I believe my analysis is correct and therefore an AAPL short is appropriate. Let’s see if the market continues to agree with me over the steadfast Apple longs.

__________________________

__________________________

 

Comments »

______________________

Despite the broader bearish picture with the AAPL chart, I still have to manage my short. Again, I normally reserve this type of play-by-play analysis of my trades for 12631 members, but since I have discussed this particular trade on iBC a bunch I am giving updates. I wrote a post yesterday where I noted that I locked in a nice gain on 1/2 of my short position. Today, I am moving my buy-cover stop-loss up to above $380.

Looking at a zoomed-out 30-minute chart, you can see that Apple is still in a downtrend. The bulls have their work cut out for them, but above $380 and I am willing to lock in the rest of my gains and revisit the short down the road. To learn more about 12631, click on the hyperlink for details about our service inside The PPT.

______________________

Comments »

___________________________

It is no mystery by now that we are back inside that summer trading range on the S&P 500. Even though the shorts are having their way, the nature of being inside a well-established price range is that there remains considerable risk to either direction. By many indicators we are currently oversold. Beyond that, sentiment seems to have turned soundly cautious, if not outright very bearish. All of that means nothing, though, when the bears are able to ride the momentum of a downdraft. As we saw last summer, Mr. Market seems to have a knack for laughing at indicators and sentiment at the most inopportune of times.

My main focus, as it has been for much of 2011, is in largely playing defense and engaging in a hit-and-run trading style, be it to the long or short side. Given the lack of a clear, sustained trend throughout this year, I want to be prepared for anything, and The PPT algorithm is as great a tool for that as any. I am going to hold off on any potential short swing trading ideas at the very least until some of this oversold condition is alleviated via a bounce. Despite how harsh the selling was on Monday morning, the bullish seasonality should not be dismissed just yet.

Hence, here are five long trading ideas. Note that if the bears remain in control of the market then I will take a pass, as at least eight out of ten stocks move with the broad market, and breakout plays tend to fail in bearish overall markets. That said, if the bulls can finally stabilize things and push us back above 1220 on the S&P I am going to look at these standouts.

___________________________

___________________________

___________________________

___________________________

___________________________

 

Comments »

____________________________

I normally reserve updates on my trades for the hallowed halls of our state of the art, real-time chat room inside 12631. However, since I have been so open about my short AAPL trade here on iBC, I thought I would note that I covered 1/2 of my full position just now, for the sake of discipline and not being piggish.

Specifically, I covered 1/2 my AAPL short at $367.77, and the initial short I started was at $385.24. I am letting the rest stay short for now, namely because the daily chart “island top” formation above $400 has been confirmed and the weekly chart is still flashing both a bearish MACD cross and divergence to price.

 

Comments »

We inside 12631 wish to express gratitude to all of our members who have helped to make us the best trading service on the internet. We have seen extraordinary demand for 12631 since its inception, and we want to maintain the quality of individual attention that RaginCajun and I offer to each member. Starting on January 1st, 2012, we will be raising prices up to what is charged in The PPT–$49.95 for the monthly, $239.95 for the semi-annual, and $359.95 for the annual subscriber.

From now until New Year’s you will able to lock in the current, ultra-low 12631 Trading Service annual rate of $25 per month for the next year. Out of respect to our loyal members, if you are a current 12631 subscriber then you will be grandfathered in at your current rate, be it the monthly, semi-annual, or annual subscription.

This is a tremendous opportunity to lock in a great value for the next full year. Taking advantage of this offer means that our price increase will be a non-issue for you until 2013. The time to join 12631 is now for $25 per month.

Please Click on this 12631 Hyperlink to Learn More and Join Us Now.

Comments »

________________________

A quick update here for those of you who have been interested in my short AAPL trade. The daily chart above tells me to stay short here, given the confirmed island top, breakdown from the initial consolidation, and then the further breakdown from a bear flag today. I could easily see a test $360 coming soon. I will let the price action guide me, with a buy-cover stop above $395, but for now this remains my type of setup and trade.

I am also staying short due to the weekly chart. Note the bearish MACD divergence on top of the bearish MACD cross. Historically, this is a big deal for the stock, and favors either a sideways or down period of price action over going higher. I have no desire to call a generational top to Apple. Nor do I wish to argue how many iPads they will sell for Christmas.

I am simply trading what I see.

________________________

Comments »