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chessNwine

Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631

Notice Anything Different?

(Below is an excerpt from a recent post inside 12631–A premium service available to members of The PPT)

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Unlike the past few months, this time around there is no real sense of urgency from underinvested bulls or panicky shorts to buy the dip or cover shorts after the past two days of the market selling off. You should take this change in psychology very seriously in the short-term, in my view. Although I have no doubts that we remain in a multi-year bull run, corrections along the way can be much more painful than we remember, seeing as we have just experienced a daily drip higher for the past few months that made a mockery of short-sellers.

The pockets of momentum longs are shrinking by the day, and the small cap oil names can only run for so long. In corrective markets, I tend to stay away from playing “breakouts,” as they have a propensity to fail when the market is shaking out latecomers and weak handed bulls. However, as a correction progresses, I will be looking for “support” plays more so, or names that simply are attempting to stabilize after a sharp sell-off.

While the market may pull off another v-shaped bounce to new highs, we have a proliferation of sloppy, if not broken charts, and change in market character.

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The 30 x 20 Tell

As the session moves into the New York lunch hour and beyond, keep an eye on the 20 period moving average on the 30 Minute Chart of both the SPY and S&P 500. If the bulls are going to put in any kind of serious bounce, then you are looking for them to get above–and hold–that reference point. Alternatively, if the bears are going to deliver another blow with their newfound momentum, then they should be able to take advantage of a rejection from the 20 period on the 30 minute chart.

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Freeport’s Dark Clouds

Here is a video that I made for members of 12631 (A premium service available to members of The PPT) at the end of January. In the video, I detail the “dark cloud cover” candlestick pattern, as it applies to Freeport McMoRan. I also believe that FCX has made an intermediate-term high, and I am looking for some more weakness, followed by a period of consolidation.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9dAI_4_wVk]

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“Traders Only” Chess Links

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Plenty of excellent sites out there include more macro commentary in their links, namely Downtown Josh Brown and Abnormal Returns. I thought I’d share a “Traders Only” collection. Here are the traders that I am reading today (click on links):

There are plenty of other key sources that I check everyday, so be sure to look on the right hand side of your screen for my Blogroll.

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