iBankCoin
Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631
Joined Apr 1, 2010
8,861 Blog Posts

The Elusive Top

pictures_of_the_day_11

No. Not a top in stocks.

Treasuries.

Dating back to last summer, I had been looking for the TLT ETF to break lower from a massive bearish rising wedge spanning several years. We know Treasuries have been in a secular bull market, and continue to resist a major rollover even as many notable market players are calling for them to top out.

On the updated weekly chart below, also consider the potential for the bearish rising wedge to morph into a head and shoulders top (light blue lines).

Nonetheless, the fact remains that topping is a process and often a tedious one at that, with no room for ego. Beyond that, the possibility for yet another leg higher is still in play given the resilience. If bond bulls can plow up through $125 here, it will put the bear case in grave danger of being negated since the “left shoulder” thesis weakens considerably.

Furthermore, extrapolating another leg higher in Treasuries out to equities, the ramifications become all the more important as we will see whether the historically inverse correlation between stocks and bonds persists.

______________________________________

TLT

 

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16 comments

  1. bjc

    all eyes on this “Furthermore, extrapolating another leg higher in Treasuries out to equities, the ramifications become all the more important as we will see whether the historically inverse correlation between stocks and bonds persists.”

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  2. Sooz

    yep..

    Dead $$ on the inverse,D@mn it all!!
    Would like very much to add but NOooo..not today.
    Instead I’m playing some other hot handed specs. which I’ll share with you, later, because I’m a kind and giving person..
    😉

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  3. Sooz

    Well I’ve kindly decided to take a pass …taking on the hot handed spec world(risky business and I’d hate to be responsible).
    I’ve posted some nice trades here on the pages of ibank since they shut the halls of pickr in the second week of this new year.
    Jeez, thanks for allowing me to do so (homeless).

    Hope some of you ‘Gentlemen’ banked some coin..(?)

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  4. Sooz

    you’re only as good as your last trade..

    I suppose this is very true..

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  5. Sooz

    taking position ((HUGE add here)) of an old fave..@$1.689

    Yeah,it’s one of those hand~grenade bio~tech,for sure.
    I’ve been dancing with this one for so long now.
    Time to dance(?)
    (a relative tune to past trades..)

    http://youtu.be/ceU4ANZKdOM

    also, added to inverse Filled at $58.73
    I may be sorry about..sticking with original thesis which is trying my patience.
    ~sincerely

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  6. Sooz

    Much too nice of a day to be indoors.
    Sheesh, I’ve been waiting for the weather to break in favor of spring for so long now.
    Today is the day..yes..finally!!!

    Have a great afternoon, Chess.

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  7. Sooz

    Do you wear ‘Spats’ when you dance? (No gangster)
    pheew..

    Here’s a good yielder ..
    Annualized Dividend Yield 15.11%..
    Getting kicked in the a$$ due to this:
    AGNC announced Q1 earnings of $0.64 per share (vs. $1.074) at 5/2/2013 4:01:00 PM ET

    just added on this sell off averaging up here on older position:
    Acquired 10/03/2011 @ 26.46
    and an add:
    Acquired 12/31/2012 @$28.90

    Status Filled at $30.798
    Symbol AGNC
    Description AMERICAN CAP AGY CORP COM
    Action Buy
    05/03/2013, 11:53:06 AM ET

    dandy dividend:
    *04/26/2013 DIVIDEND RECEIVED
    AGNC AMERICAN CAP AGY CORP COM

    hope you are having a mighty fine day..
    ;))

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  8. Sooz

    it use to be an easy one to trade around dividend..2010~2011
    capturing the run and the dividend?
    has not sold off like this in sometime

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  9. Sooz

    Wanted Dead or Alive

    (on a steel horse I ride..haha..working hard after that little bleep)
    remain long a few of those issues as mentioned on another page somewhere here.

    http://youtu.be/SRvCvsRp5ho

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  10. Sooz

    just some Irish~Lucky~Charm…(?)
    Let’s bounce..
    This makes me smile..;)))

    http://youtu.be/PVvgYng6ccY

    (so easily entertained..hmm)

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  11. Sooz

    A deserving re~play of this music video that I posted on the pages of Pickr Jan 1, 2013 in regards to fiscal cliff nonsense..

    Joss Stone – The High Road
    http://youtu.be/K0SnOpT6R8g

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  12. Sooz

    and..
    if you need a good laugh..

    (from the pages of my FB home page:December 29, 2012)
    re~captioned to suit me:
    These people have just viewed the ‘Fiscal Cliff ‘ that they say(??) we are about to go over.
    D@mn~it all..((Seriously Hilarious))

    http://twistedsifter.com/2011/10/terrified-people-at-nightmares-fear-factory/

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  13. Sooz

    Jeez, your posts get buried so in quick fashion..

    I’m thinking of selling some of those first ins on that bear treasury as I have over time accumulated quite a few shares and now feel I have too much exposure on that inverse.(in the green is bonus)
    It is moving back up here which makes me happy..
    Ahh yes, ((Patience))

    Have a great weekend, Chess.
    I will be spending mine with the most beautiful woman that I know, my Mom. Must tend to this humble abode before she arrives.

    Listening to a little Eddie Vedder this a.m.. to counteract the devil over there..:)

    http://youtu.be/e4uTEhDqa_s

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  14. Sooz

    scratch that *so..
    hmm

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  15. Sooz

    Status Filled at $64.25
    Symbol TBT
    Description PROSHARES TR PROSHARES ULTRASHORT20+ YR TREAS NEW
    Action Sell
    Quantity 650 Shares
    Time in Force Day
    Conditions None
    Trade Type Cash
    Market Session Standard
    Order Date 05/10/2013, 11:36:01 AM ET
    Cancel Date
    Order Number **
    EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE
    Date Time Price Quantity Total
    05/10/2013 11:36:02 AM $64.25 300.000 $19,274.56
    05/10/2013 11:36:02 AM $64.25 300.000 $19,274.56
    05/10/2013 11:36:09 AM $64.25 50.000 $3,212.42
    NET TOTAL 650.000 $41,761.54

    will continue to hold position Filled at $58.73(above) 05/01/2013

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