TLT is still in an overall uptrend, so even if this is “the” top in bonds, I would expect life to be not so easy for fixed income shorts. Hunches aside, the actual action here indicates that from the attempted breakout in TLT (lower rates) that was for nought in late-July has come this fast mover lower.
Weak Treasuries should mean higher stock prices, but I am always reticent to assume a major top is at hand in a secular bull market such as the one government bonds have been in. Nevertheless, stock bulls have been wishing for TLT to fade.
A retest back up to the rising 50 day moving average that stalls and turns back lower as the 50 day smooths out and then points down would be preferred scenario for bond bears.
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Someone should ‘shop out the water and replace it with a deep ravine…