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The “mad genius of poker,” Mike Caro, first pointed out Fancy Play Syndrome (FPS) as a way to describe poker players making overly complex plays which are unnecessary and more importantly unprofitable over the long run. Usually, the simple play works best, so long as it is sound strategy. It is only on the rare occasion that fancy plays, such as slow-playing pocket Aces, should be executed. While a fancy play like check-raisng the river in Texas Hold ‘Em is referred to, in slang, as “the sexy,” substance always wins out over style in time.
FPS should sound familiar to stock traders, given how many opportunities there are for overly complex trades and strategies, between equities, options, commodities, FOREX, bonds, etc. In reality, a simple approach in terms of strategy and execution is usually when we are at our best. If the setup is there, you stalk it, wait for your trigger, and gauge if the market is cooperating for your trade to work before taking it. If not, then you take a pass.
With that in mind, the real estate sector is still offering a potential inverse head and shoulders bottom spanning several months. Over the past week, the IYR has tightened up considerably, in terms of price. The major neckline is at $58, and out of this tight base I would expect that to be challenged in short order, at a minimum. I like this idea if $55.70 is conquered, which is just pennies away, and a cooperative broad market. If you want tons of beta (and risk), consider DRN. For a more tranquil trader, consider the following ideas below, only on strength.
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LOL at the picture. I’ve seen that second one usually posted with the phrase “Grand Theft Auto Jerusalem” on it. hilarious.