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To follow-up on this analysis that I wrote ten days ago, shares of Apple have indeed broken below $390 after consolidating for several weeks. If you read that post, then you know that the “island top” reversal that Apple formed has been confirmed, even more now that $390 has been breached. Shorting Apple is a psychologically difficult thing to do for many traders, given the strength of their products and high esteem in which the firm is held, but those sentiments and facts merely serve to distract you from the current price action.
Accordingly, inside 12631 I initiated a short positon in Apple today with a fairly tight buy-cover stop back above $390.
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GLAD TO HAVE YOU ON MY SIDE OF THIS TRADE.
Seems hard to believe based on the fundamentals. But gotta admit the chart suggests otherwise. What’s your downside target?
If this confirms, $340-ish.
Wow, I was thinking more like 368-70ish. Thanks.
Hasn’t it already confirmed by closing below $390?
Yes. Good point. I said that in my post. You are 100% correct. I suppose what I mean is if I am proven right by the market 😉
I mean if you’re an Apple bull this can only make you happy right? When’s the next time you’ll get to buy your favorite stock for $355? The fundy’s are great, but after missing a quarter Apple has to prove themselves again.
Excellent points.
Yeah, I’m more interested in using the drop to reenter leap calls.
how do you get 340ish for bottom?
not a bottom–a target where I would look to cover some profits on my shorts if it gets there
i cant see it getting below 200 day but in this market who knows.
Im absolutely amazed at the number of AAPL bulls.
Do you guys actually believe AAPL is going to increase margins in the smart phone market when they are getting outright attacked by Android?
Do you believe AAPL is going to increase margins in the tablet market when LITERALLY every company on the planet is jumping on the bandwagon?
Do you believe windows 8 is going to be a fucking disaster like Vista was? Who the fuck is going to buy a laptop at a price tag of $2000(FYI.twice the price of comparable windows computers) when windows 8 is going to be coming out of the gate swinging?
Where the fuck do you people get off being aapl bulls right now. I hope you fall down a fucking elevator shaft. Im outta here. Going to work out and ponder over how fucked up the world is.
1. Margins are just one part of the story. While they don’t dominate the smartphone market due to Android flooding the market due to different vendors, remember that Android is not monetized so Google earns nothing while Apple controls virtually every part of the ecosystem and takes a big portion from developers and purchasers.
2. So far nobody has been able to replicate the success of the iPad. Research In Motion failed with the Playbook, HP failed with the TouchPad and Android tablets such as the Xoom are facing legal headwinds.
3. Windows 8 will not be something Apple has to worry about. Those who like Apple loathe Windows and I don’t think people who buy Apple products care so much about price so much as wanting to have the “latest” gadgets
Apple has so much cash they could buy virtually anything they wanted to, they are dirt cheap from a fundamental perspective and I don’t see anyone coming close to changing the domination that Apple currently enjoys.
If in the short term the stock can be shorter, great, but after that it’s going to hit $500 in the next year.
1. I don’t give a shit if Android is monetized or not. Just as the tobacco industry created thousands of different types of type of cigarettes to protect market share android is doing the same. If you have 2 phones to pick from chances are (if they have similar performance and design) you can split the market into to 50% stakes. However if you have 100 different choices of phones its much harder to dominate the market. Apple is not only losing margin, they are losing market share.
2. I simply dont give a fuck if no one has been able to replicate the ipad success. Have you seen the price point these other tablet sell for? Pennies compared to the ipad. With the economy as tight as it is people are going to want some deals, and once again apple is losing margins and market share.
3. Windows 8 might not be a huge consern for AAPL, but in my eyes Vista really opened the door for AAPL, because it was garbage. That is unlikely to happen with windows 8.
4. Apple with cash? Fuck apple. If they have so much fucking cash they should be compensating their share holders. They could have a fucking trillion dollars in cash, honestly it means nothing to me when its just sitting there under a mattress.
Long term apple is fucked. They will need to come out with some crazy alien type gadgets just to ward off the army of competition in each other their markets.
. . . don’t fear the razr . . .
Ballsy. Good luck chess!