The Past Week Summed Up for the Bears

_____________

I will have more on the recap today, but the basic idea here is to resist the urge to assume that the market must come crashing down just because we have seen a vertical move higher. If this is, indeed, a major market bottom, then what almost always happens is that we become overbought and then proceed to stay overbought for much longer than traders think is possible. Beyond that, overbought conditions are more likely to be worked off by the market going sideways for a while in lieu of rolling over.

That said, I am sticking to my discipline of focusing on high probability setups and not drifting from my style. Should the market scream higher by 3% tomorrow, then so be it. I still have a few longs on but plenty of cash to boot. By definition, a sustained uptrend will offer tons of high probability setups for swing traders as it develops. I am not fully certain that we are in a new uptrend, as exemplified by the fact that we remain in that 100 point range on the s&P 500. As I said earlier today, no range lasts forever.

However, no V-shaped move higher is perpetual, either.