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Bull market corrections should be celebrated and embraced by swing traders in particular, since it is only through this temporary cleansing process that we see excellent, high probability longer-term trades emerge again to commence the next leg higher. In fact, that very rinse/repeat concept was one of the driving forces behind my super tight approach to this market over the past two months. After riding the trend higher since last September, the issue was not whether we were going to correct sharply after drifting higher well into 2011, but rather the test would be whether your greed would blind you from that inevitability.
For those who were caught heavily long up at 1344 on the S&P 500, the temptation is to now force trades during this correction. Inside the casino, this is know as “chasing,” where you are instantaneously trying to recoup dramatic losses that you just suffered at the blackjack table, for example. However, this usually leads to further losses and even more chasing. If you are wondering why so many traders and gamblers go broke or lose so much capital that they can no longer survive in the stock market or at the poker table, I just outlined pretty much all you need to know–Losses beget more losses, which usually leads to desperation and any semblance of discipline being tossed out the car window like a piece of damning evidence with the police chasing you down.
Bases are built during corrections, and patterns are filled out. If you have patience to slowly build positions for the long-term, then you will start to see some bargains during this correction, if you have not already. Even if you do not have the Warren Buffett “buy and hold forever” mentality, the big money will still be made from your longer-term swing trades, lasting several weeks to months, rather than holding for just a day or two.
Hence, forcing too many trades during this correction may very well prove to be just as big of a mistake as loading up the truck with longs last month. The key is to keep a big picture perspective and understand that trying to aggressively swing trade here amounts to being just another brick in the base.
Below, the weekly charts of GS JPM and MA all illustrate patterns that are likely to resolve sharply higher, but not before a few more traders trying to push their luck are punished.
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Good post Chess. Need discipline and restraint here for rewards later on.
Regards,
Judy G
Thanks, Judy. You’ve been a huge supporter.
what the judicial system lost when you left we sure gratefully gained
Indeed 😉 Thank you, dear.
Thanks Chess. You have an incredible ability to be patient and I am learning from you all the time. Will look for your moves in 12631.
Love having you as a subscriber & loyal reader, Bill.
Good point…i hadn’t really considered. For the past two years nearly all of my profitability has been driven by buying in at support and selling a few days to a couple of weeks later on the steepest part of the ascent. I’ve left a tremendous amount of money on the table by selling way too early.
Think I will try to be more patient this time…
Nice. Yeah, just a few slight adjustments can make a huge difference.
Thanks.
Cheers, Yogs.
I have been watching that JPM pattern since November….
Taking its time, but should reward the patient.
Thank you Chess I’m learning so much from 12631. For those not in 12631….what are you waiting for? This is the type of article/video we get everyday keeping us intune with the pulse of the market.
😉
I agree… I think they’re going much higher.
Eventually, yes.
Thanks Chess, good stuff as always.
You’re the man, GYSC.
Wow, thanks!
Thanks for the great post. I have had some bumpy chases the last few months. Your posts help me see why I made these mistakes and how I can prepare and not repeat those same mistakes thanks again for the great analysis and perspective.
Cheers
chess you are indeed the T.A. master. All of my T.A. trades are based on your analysis. I am learning so much from 12631.
Thanks, H50
I want my $30K BACK!!!! Ok, if I just find the ONE perfect trade, I’m sure I can make it back…. 🙂 🙂
Thanks, @chess, makes sense…
🙂