The analysis that I have been providing in this tab has focused more on longer-term timeframes as of late. The main reason for that bigger picture focus is because I believe that it would behoove you to not take into account where we are in the overall scheme of things. After all, as this monthly chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index illustrates below, we are still in a secular bear market, despite being in a bull run since March of 2009. After screaming higher for over five consecutive months, the semis are likely going to go much higher over the next few years.
However, that bull thesis should prove to be bittersweet for short-term traders who insist on clinging to it. As I imply in my notes on the chart, after sprinting up the first several floors of the building, this (cyclical) bull is on the cusp of reverting back to “taking the stairs up.”
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Hey Chess, not sure where the trend line comes in that youve drawn, for 2007 top and next resistance I see mid 500s…which sounds crazy given how far we’ve come.
Also note the inverted H&S we broke out of that began 2008, a measured move taking us close to 600.
Note a trendline–showing current price relative to past. Note supply from 2007 starting to be a factor. Yes, the inverted h&s valid, but short-term pullback thesis trumps it for now.
Good stuff, sir. I like it.
Fundies say we go higher than this, but you have bopped me over the head – and won – for my previous fundie focus.
They do go higher…eventually.
I love this long term analysis. Thanks for the reminders.
Big Head Todd fan? Best guitar player who never really got noticed …. Great band, grew up w/them in CO.
Awesome!